Latvia hopes to become the 18th EU member state to join the eurozone. Estonia became the 17th in 2011. The FT’s Nordic and Baltic correspondent Richard Milne spoke to the President of Estonia, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, about his country’s experience in the eurozone and his advice to Latvia.
Economic growth of 3 per cent in the eurozone? It sounds like a statistical error at a time when the common currency area is braced for a 0.4 per cent drop. But Estonia is set to record a 3 per cent expansion in 2012, nearly double the government’s forecast at the start of the year. And officials expect another 3 per cent in 2013.
Much of this is a rebound from the extra-severe shock that passed through Estonia and the other two Baltic states of Latvia and Lithuania in 2009 when Estonian GDP dropped by a cumulative 18 per cent. Continue reading »
Like the small kid at school who over-achieves to compensate for his stature, Estonia has a thing about proving itself. The Baltic state of 1.3m was the first country in the world to introduce online voting and pioneered the use of free public internet. It was also the first former Soviet republic to join the eurozone. Precisely two years after that event, on January 1, 2013, Tallinn will become the largest city in the world and the first capital to provide free public transport to all of its residents. Continue reading »
Of all the real estate bubbles to go pop in recent years, none did so more spectacularly than the one in the Baltic states during the 2008 financial crisis. Property prices halved in many cases, and some bruised investors swore never to touch Baltic real estate again. But never is a long time when there is money to be made.
The announcement on August 27 that the biggest IPO on the Baltic bourses in five years will come from a real estate company looks set to test whether investors are ready to believe Baltic realty can be anything other than boom-and-bust. Continue reading »
There’s a Polish saying: Your point of view depends on where you sit (it rhymes in Polish), which applies to working out how the various CEE economies are doing, according to a new study by Capital Economics.
Normally, gross domestic product growth numbers provide a fairly reliable snapshot of economic performance. A look at last year’s GDP numbers indicates that Turkey had the fastest growth, followed by the three Baltic minnows, Ukraine and then Poland. But a lot of that growth came from a very low level in economies which were pummelled by the 2009 recession and have not yet regained their pre-recession GDP levels. Continue reading »
Estonia released fourth quarter GDP data on Friday – and the news wasn’t good. The economy grew 4 per cent year-on-year, down from 8 per cent in the previous quarter and its slowest pace in one and a half years.
With a raft of data due next week, how will other economies in emerging Europe fare? According to Capital Economics, both the Czech Republic and Hungary have real reason to worry – with the Czech Republic likely to be the first country in the region to fall back into recession. Continue reading »
The mood turned sour again on European markets on Monday, as fresh worries about Greece rattled investors’ nerves. But that didn’t stop Lithuania getting a one-year bond auction away at a pretty impressive yield, on the day the country said its economy grew by a healthy 4.3 per cent last year.
Nevertheless, a glance behind the headline figures suggests that even where things look cheerful, investors should be cautious. Continue reading »
The Czech economy contracted in the third quarter, falling by 0.1 per cent compared to the second as all elements of demand slowed, according to the central bank. This was the Republic’s first contraction since 2009. A recession, technically two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, could be just around the corner.
Beyondbrics has taken a look at how its neighbours are faring – and how much they all depend on exports to the EU. The prognosis is not great. Continue reading »
As parts of the eurozone brace for a possible double-dip recession next year, the outlook for the emerging countries in central and eastern Europe looks a lot more resilient, according to a new report from Austria’s Erste Bank.
The key to the rosier outlook for the CEE region is that it looks to be a lot less vulnerable to external turbulence than was the case in 2008 and 2009. Continue reading »
Four of the wealthiest men in central Europe had a message for their governments: reform or else lose the race to catch up to western Europe’s standards of living.
The four were taking part in a panel at an economic summit in the southern Polish industrial city of Katowice and the most outspoken was Sandor Demjan, a 68-year-old billionaire who made his mark under Hungary’s reformist goulash communism before going on to found TriGranit, one of the region’s leading real estate developers. Continue reading »
The title of “biggest bank in the Baltics” has been something of booby prize of late for Swedish lender Swedbank. When the financial crisis hit, the company saw its debt downgraded and its share price halve, partly as a result of its exposure to the region.
But Swedbank’s quarterly results published on Thursday are a modest sign that the Baltics can be more than dead weight. The bank’s business in the region is back in profit for the first time since 2008 and contributed one-fifth of overall earnings. Continue reading »
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