An IMF research paper shows how rare Latin American financial crises have been since 1998, when the world was rocked by EM currency crises. We’ve graphed the findings below.
Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin, the authors, think the continent has learnt from 1998. Successful countries like Brazil, Peru and Chile have stimulated their economies when GDP dipped; before 1998, they were less keen to do so. Continue reading »
When the oppressive heat in Buenos Aires becomes just too much to bear at the height of the austral summer, those who can afford it prefer to jet off to cooler climes to see in the New Year.
But some may have been forced to rethink their holiday plans after the Argentine government moved to stem an alarming decline of foreign currency reserves by bumping up the price at which it sells dollars to Argentines travelling abroad, in what amounts to a stealth devaluation. Continue reading »
As the saying goes, it is not over until it’s over.
Nonetheless, last night’s putative agreement between Spain, Argentina and Mexico to settle the YPF-Repsol dispute looks promising – Repsol shares spiked over 4 per cent on Tuesday morning on the news – although there are several provisos. Continue reading »
It is the end of an era for businesses in Argentina. Might executives even start to miss Guillermo Moreno, the man that everyone loved to hate, in some perverse kind of version of the Stockholm syndrome?
Maybe that’s going too far, but the resignation of Argentina’s trade secretary – who since his rise to power in 2005 became so much more than just a trade secretary – leaves a gaping hole in the implementation of economic policy.
This vacuum of power will be filled by Axel Kicillof, a Marxist economics professor who sports Elvis sideburns, as the new economy minister. Continue reading »
"I'm outta here!"
Guillermo Moreno (pictured), Argentina’s combative internal trade secretary, has resigned, the government said late on Tuesday.
A controversial figure, Moreno has been instrumental in keeping the lid on Argentina’s runaway inflation by strong-arming companies into freezing prices and restricting imports. Continue reading »
He’s Mexican and rich. He owns important stakes in telecoms and media operations. But his name is not Carlos Slim.
David Martínez is a studiously low-profile financier who is now spending $960m to add control of Telecom Argentina to his stable of investments, which includes a 40 per cent stake in Cablevision, the cable TV unit owned by Argentine media empire Clarín. Why? Let’s face it, many other business folk tend to give Argentina a wide berth. Continue reading »
By Arturo C. Porzecanski
Carlos Mauleon, the former Barclays Capital investment banker who handled Argentina’s 2005 debt restructuring, recently wrote a guest post on beyondbrics justifying that infamous transaction: “Whatever you may think of Argentina, … the one good decision its leaders made was to aggressively restructure [the public] debt back in 2005” because “the question is, did [Argentina] have a better choice? Not really.”
But it did. Here’s why. Continue reading »
As President Cristina Fernández’s rule appears to be coming to an end, investors are hopeful this will spur economic reform. FT comment editor Fred Studemann asks the LSE’s Alejandra Irigoín and FT deputy emerging markets editor Jonathan Wheatley if change is really afoot
By Carlos Mauleon
Few are willing to speak up in favour of Argentina, given a long list of questionable economic decisions made by the current government. But whatever you may think of Argentina, its leaders and its policies, you should consider that despite all of the criticism and rhetoric from the holdouts, US judges, the IMF and the IIF, the one good decision its leaders made was to aggressively restructure Argentina’s debt back in 2005.
Now even that may be thrown by the wayside if either the Supreme Court rejects hearing the case brought against them by the holdouts or accepts the case but supports the appeals court’s recent ruling. The outcome could very well turn back the clocks to December 24, 2001, a day both Argentina and 93 per cent of its creditors would rather forget; but it would also establish a poor precedent for the chances of effectively concluding any future sovereign debt restructurings. Continue reading »
Something had to give. Argentina’s gravity-defying stock market
has been heading for the skies this year, with some shares as much as quadrupling in value.
On Tuesday though, the Merval bourse was slapped in the face with a sobering dose of reality when the supreme court ruled that Grupo Clarín, the country’s largest media group, will effectively have to sell off many of its lucrative cable TV licenses. Continue reading »
Who in their right mind would want to invest in Argentina? Surely its capricious government that delights in changing the rules of the game (or just stopping the game altogether), and its troubled economy warped by price and exchange controls make it a potential disaster zone for investors – right?
Wrong. Investors have been piling into Argentine stocks all year long, with its Merval equity index very nearly doubling this year. Some stocks have quadrupled in value in 2013. Continue reading »
Argentina’s stock markets are rallying, as President Cristina Fernández’s chances of a third term weaken. But John Paul Rathbone, Latin America editor, tells John Authers the country still faces problems and the next government will have a tough job.
China's VP Li Yuanchao and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in May
Ask the governments of Ecuador or Venezuela: good relations with China can be really handy when you’re in a financial fix. This is something that Argentina seems to be cottoning onto, if a proposed $10bn loan materialises.
According to reports in local media this week, Argentina’s central bank is negotiating a deal with the Chinese that it hopes might help stem an alarming decline in its foreign exchange reserves. Continue reading »