A nice IMF research paper shows how rare Latin American financial crises have been since 1998, when the world was rocked by EM currency crises. We’ve graphed the findings below.
Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin, the authors, think the continent has learnt from 1998. Successful countries like Brazil, Peru and Chile have stimulated their economies when GDP dipped; before 1998, they were less keen to do so. Continue reading »
Research company Wealth-X has released its annual report on “ultra high net worth individuals”. (For those prefer plain English, they mean the stinking rich.)
The super wealthy in the west have got even richer over the past year. In fact the super rich have got richer just about everywhere – bar in eight emerging and frontier countries including China, Brazil and Syria. Continue reading »
Wasn’t the talk in some corners of Lima that the Peruvian economy was already pointing upwards? It seems for policy makers it needed yet another push.
Surprising analysts, the central bank has cut its policy interest rate, which has been fixed at 4.25 per cent a year since June 2011, to 4 per cent. Continue reading »
The times of the rip-roaring annual growth rates of 7 or 8 per cent that Peru has witnessed in recent years might be over but the Andean country is still one of Latin America’s most dynamic economies.
That, at least, is according to its finance minister Luis Miguel Castilla (pictured), who told beyondbrics that the economy will recover to some 6 per cent “or even more” next year – thanks in part to infrastructure spending, a recovery in business confidence, and strong mining investment that is expected to double the country’s copper production by 2016. Continue reading »
Mineral-rich Peru appears to be getting back to the game following news that Minmetals of China has submitted a bid for Glencore Xstrata’s Las Bambas copper project, one of the largest new copper projects in the world. Two other Chinese companies, Chinalco and Jiangxi Copper, as well as Newmont Mining of the US have also expressed interest in the mine.
Glencore is selling Las Bambas as a condition of its acquisition of Xstrata imposed by Chinese regulators. But Peru’s government has good reason to want a “first class” buyer, in the words of mining minister Jorge Merino, as it appears to be serious about re-igniting several large mining projects that have been stalled by protests or other issues. Continue reading »
Investors have got used to the idea that Brazil’s economy is not delivering on its post-crisis promise and that Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico are where future growth lies.
But how upbeat are consumers in those countries? A survey commissioned by LatAm Confidential, a new service from the Financial Times launched this week, throws up some surprising results. Continue reading »
Peru has racked up a decade of rapid economic growth that has made it one of Latin America’s investment darlings.
But the weakness of its institutions – evidenced by recent street protests over a Congressional backroom deal to appoint key Supreme Court judges – remains a constant, niggling “investment risk” in the eyes of most analysts.
For Enrique Mendizabal, a researcher who has launched the country’s first national awards for think tanks in conjunction with the magazine Poder, the importance of homegrown research to drive policy is an important part of addressing that weakness. Continue reading »
Peru’s biggest construction and engineering firm, Graña y Montero, showed the strength of pent-up demand for Latin American stocks on Wednesday with a $413m listing on the New York Stock Exchange.
“This transaction is going to open the door for upcoming Latin American IPOs,” NYSE’s head of Latin America, Alexandre Ibrahim, told beyondbrics. Continue reading »
Pick a number, any number. You might just hit on the amount Peru’s government will have to pay out to the holders of 40-year-old “land bonds” that hark back to the leftist military regime of Juan Velasco Alvarado.
When General Velasco expropriated huge tracts of land off wealthy ranchers to redistribute amongst campesinos, landholders were paid in bonds which have since been stored hopefully in family safes or sold on to speculative investors. Continue reading »
It’s been a bad few weeks for EM currencies. The South African rand and the Indian rupee have taken a particular hammering, helped along by violent mining-industry unrest in the former and apparent policy paralysis in the latter. The Turkish lira, too, has been badly shaken by the past fortnight of violent protest.
None of those currencies, though, would have fared quite as badly were it not for the fear that the Fed’s quantitative easing programme may be coming to an end. And nowhere is the undiluted end-of-QE effect clearer than in Latin America. Continue reading »
Graña y Montero is about to join a tiny group of Peruvian companies that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Peru’s biggest construction and engineering group has filed for a $460m initial public offering to raise funds for investments in infrastructure, further acquisitions and expansion and land purchases. Continue reading »
On Latin America’s Pacific rim, deepening free trade appears to be the name of the game, as the region’s pro-markets countries of Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile – have agreed to drop most tariffs to speed the consolidation of the Pacific Alliance.
At least, that is what Colombia’s President, Juan Manuel Santos, told beyondbrics on the sidelines of the group’s latest summit in the Colombian city of Cali on Thursday. Continue reading »
By Samuel George of the Bertelsmann Foundation
They come by it honestly. Much like their European relatives, Latin American leaders have a sweet tooth for the summit, the annual meeting and the commission. Lofty goals and promises of solidarity are sealed with vigorous handshakes, bear hugs and kisses on the cheek. But beyond the ubiquitous photos of smiling presidents, few concrete achievements emerge from these gatherings.
In theory, inchoate integration projects abound, from the regional Mercosur to the continental Unasur. In fact, the dream of a more unified Latin America has progressed little since Simon Bolívar crisscrossed the Andes in the early 19th century. This could be changing. Continue reading »
As Google, Starbucks and Amazon have learned to their detriment, companies that take advantage of legal tax-avoidance schemes such as the “Dutch sandwich” and the “double Irish” are right up there with bankers in the public’s estimation.
Peru’s tax office, Sunat, has found a way to help make the medicine go down, it seems, giving companies the option of paying part of their tax bill in the form of regional infrastructure works in some of the countries’ poorest regions. Continue reading »