By Russ Dallen, Caracas Capital Markets
Trying to predict what will happen in South America’s wildest emerging markets in 2015 has the degree of difficulty of trying to compute pi to the 100th digit in your head.
With Venezuela, in particular, the range of options of what could happen next year is almost as infinite – ranging from more of the same and muddling through, to default, violence, coup, civil war and international brigades. On the economic front, whether Venezuela survives 2015 will depend almost purely on the price of oil, however. Read more
Last week, Cleary Gottlieb – the US law firm representing Argentina in its debt negotiations – held a packed closed-door session on Venezuela. The question of the day was: what if Venezuela defaults? This week, the US Senate passed a bill that seeks to sanction Venezuelan officials for alleged human rights violations. Although these two events are not obviously related — and the sanctions bill still has to be approved by Congress, and signed into law by Barack Obama — they could become so. They both also illuminate the horrible mess that Venezuela could be heading into. Read more
By John-Paul Rathbone and Andres Schipani
Socialist Venezuela would never sell out its friends to Wall Street, right? Yet it appears that is exactly what Caracas wants to do. Pressed by the oil price collapse, rattled by fears of default, facing rising social tension as imports collapse due to lack of foreign exchange, and seemingly unable to put its economic house in order, the country is trying to raise desperately-needed cash by selling debts owed to it by the Dominican Republic and Jamaica on to Goldman Sachs. Chavismo turns to the vampire squid?
The idea has been circulating for a while in the investment banking community. But now details have emerged in the press, as reported by El Nuevo Herald, and Petroleum Argos. Essentially, the trade involves Venezuela securitizing debts owed under its $3.5bn a year subsidised oil program, called Petrocaribe. Read more
Among the many woes afflicting Venezuela, one of the most pressing is the rapid decline in its reserves of hard currency. These fell from some $29bn at the start of 2013 to a low of about $19bn last week. But Beijing’s generous hand has since boosted them to $23.5bn, according to the central bank.
The fall in reserves had raised concerns about Venezuela’s ability to pay its debts, so the influx brought some relief to rattled markets, fuelling a small rally off recent lows in Venezuelan bonds, which remain among the highest yielding in the world.
But is the influx all it appears to be? Read more
One could talk about Venezuela’s economic policy in Shakespearean terms. To devalue or not to devalue; to converge foreign exchange rates or not to converge; to raise the price of the world’s cheapest gasoline or not to raise; to sell Citgo or not to sell; to default or not to do so – these are the questions.
The distortions created by the government’s foreign exchange and price controls – covering even Barbie dolls – keep playing a treacherous role in Venezuela’s unfolding tragedy. Why is this happening instead of not happening? To some analysts, that is the question. Read more
Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister (pictured above on the right), and Rafael Ramírez, Venezuela’s foreign minister (on the left) met on the resort island of Isla Margarita late on Wednesday on the sidelines of a climate conference. As the continuing oil price drop keeps adding pressures to some Opec members, particularly Venezuela, there were expectations.
“We’re great friends!” Ramírez was quoted as saying as he arrived in Margarita. He later tweeted of an “excellent meeting” of “brother countries”. But the talks were mostly about climate change and there was no real word on prices, Opec’s oil policy, or the crude supply glut. Ramírez reportedly said only that the sliding oil price was a “concern for everyone.” Read more
When oil prices fall, it’s a fair bet that Venezuela’s economy will suffer. After all, that has been the case every time oil prices have fallen in the past. When Venezuela’s official gazette then publishes a legal notice on October 10 saying that its oil-for-loans scheme with China had been tweaked, it is also a fair bet that this would be taken as a sign of Venezuelan economic distress and maybe even a default on loans from its closest ally, China. That is how beyondbrics and many others understood it. How wrong one can be — sort of. Read more
Wasn’t it the case that the compensation Venezuela was ordered to pay Exxon by a World Bank arbitration tribunal was a “favourable end” to a longstanding legal battle because it was considerably lower than the figure the company had sought?
It seems not, even if those were the words Venezuela’s foreign minister, Rafael Ramírez, penned in a statement this month. Fast forward two weeks and the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, or ICSID, said it had received a request from the Venezuelan government for a revision of the award.
Venezuelans do not really dance the tango. But in the mooted sale of Citgo, the country’s US refining operation, that is what the socialist government has been doing – taking one step forward, two steps back.
In an interview published on Sunday by leading daily El Universal, Rodolfo Marco Torres, Venezuela’s finance minister, said the socialist government had scrapped any plans for a sale. “The sale of Citgo is discarded,” he told the paper. “Venezuela continues with Citgo and will continue making the investments in the refineries.” Read more
Blame the Empire.
Venezuela’s socialist President Nicolás Maduro on Wednesday accused the United States of oversupplying the market -in his words, “inundating the market”- to rattle oil prices. His government is maybe having a tough time coping with a sliding crude price as oil accounts for some 95 per cent of export revenues of the energy rich country.
The toxic combination of dropping oil prices, an economy in shambles and lower levels of foreign reserves, has been reinvigorating fears of a debt default. Alejandro Grisanti, head of Latin America economics research at Barclays, said on Wednesday in report titled “Venezuela: The perfect storm”: Read more
Last month Ricardo Hausmann, a normally mild Harvard academic, set off the equivalent of a financial bomb. The economist suggested that Venezuela had already defaulted on many of its suppliers, its oil service contractors, and its citizens. So who or what might come next?
When Hausmann suggested Wall Street, the market reaction was huge. Indeed Venezuelan bonds, undercut by the falling oil price, have been dropping ever since. Yet it turns out that Venezuela’s latest default has been, in fact, to China. Given that Beijing is one of Caracas’ closest allies, this is surprising. It is also bullish for Wall Street. Read more
By Pan Kwan Yuk and Andres Schipani
Thumbing his nose at critics, Venezuela’s finance minister, Rodolfo Marco Torres, said on Wednesday via a series of tweets that the socialist government has paid a $1.5bn government bond that was due.
As fastFT reported, Mr Torres took to Twitter, under the hashtag #VenezuelaSeRespeta, or Respect for Venezuela, to write:
Acknowledging the instruction of our president Nicolás Maduro, today we paid #GlobalBond2014 #RespectForVenezuela
Today we paid $1.561.665.000 in capital and corresponding interests of #GlobalBond2014 #RespectForVenezuela
The Boliviarian government shows its commitment to the Motherland and the capacity to honour its obligations #GlobalBond2014 #RespectForVenezuela
Investor nerves are once again fraying over Venezuela’s $4.5bn worth of bond repayments due this month, sending the cost of insuring against a government default to its highest in over seven months and within a whisker of a six-year high, fast FT reports.
Caracas has a $1.5bn government bond due for repayment on Oct 8, and state-owned oil company PDVSA has a $3bn debt repayment on Oct 28. For most oil-rich countries that shouldn’t pose much of a problem, but Venezuela’s economy is a mess after years of poor management. Read more
Venezuela’s black market foreign exchange rate, the innombrable – or unmentionable in Spanish – broke the supersonic barrier of a 100 bolívares per dollar on Friday afternoon.
Amid the country’s deepening malaise, the fall has been a fast one: a year ago, a greenback fetched less than 40 bolívares fuertes. The fuerte – or strong in Spanish – has since become a wisp of a thing with the country’s biggest banknote – the 100 bolivar – now changing hands for a mere US dollar.
Nevertheless, Venezuelans are desperate to get hold of greenbacks to hedge against runaway inflation at 63 per cent. But due to tight controls imposed over a decade ago, the government sells a limited amount of dollars at overvalued rates ranging from 6.3 to roughly 50 bolívares, depending on the country’s multiple exchange rates. Read more
Venezuela’s economy is in disarray and many blame its tight foreign exchange system. Some within the socialist government are resistant to reform it, so for a while now, officials have instead opted to tinker with it. One could say they did so, albeit slightly, again on Thursday by allowing the state-owned oil company, PDVSA, to sell dollars at different rates.
PDVSA, the cash cow of the country with the world’s largest oil reserves, will now be able to use any of Venezuela’s three legal exchange rates when it contributes to the government’s social development fund, Fonden. Read more
Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president, made his debut at the United Nations this week. While in New York he talked about Citgo, the US-based subsidiary of his country’s state oil company PDVSA, which is supposedly up for sale. Only last month, a government minister said Caracas was open to proposals.
Maduro seemed keen to scotch that idea. He said his government’s plans for Citgo were to keep on “strengthening our investments” – and to keep on warming the homes of some 150,000 families in the US through a subsidised heating oil programme launched by his mentor and predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez. Read more
Clorox, the cleaning products company, has finally bit the dust in Venezuela, announcing on Monday it was pulling the plug on the embattled Caribbean nation amid the country’s growing economic woes and restrictions.
“This is a very difficult situation for our company,” Don Knauss, chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.
Aside from price controls, foreign companies operating in the country have to deal with runaway inflation, which drives up operating costs. They also have to watch the money they make depreciate because Venezuela’s tight capital controls mean they cannot easily repatriate it. Read more
No devaluation here
One could say that a clear sign that Venezuela – a country where beauty enhancements are a serious issue – has hit rock bottom is that there is now a shortage of breast implants. But as FastFT reports, the real nervousness appears to lie elsewhere.
Growing concerns over the embattled Caribbean country’s ability and willingness to make $4.5bn of debt repayments next month has pushed the cost of insuring against a default to the highest in seven months. Read more
By Eric Platt and Andres Schipani
Another lurch lower for Venezuela: the country’s sovereign credit rating was cut deeper into junk territory to ‘CCC+’ by Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday as it grapples with recession, rocketing inflation, dwindling foreign reserves and widespread shortages of goods.
S&P lowered its rating one notch from ‘B-’, which the agency said indicated a “one-in-two likelihood of default over the next two years”. Read more
By Francisco Rodríguez of Bank of America Merrill Lynch
In a provocative article published last week by Project Syndicate (Should Venezuela Default?), Venezuelan economists Ricardo Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos make an interesting argument. They contend that Venezuela cannot meet all of its foreign currency obligations and is already defaulting on some of them. If authorities adopted a set of common-sense policies, they argue, these would include defaulting on the country’s foreign debt and making bondholders bear part of the burden of adjustment.
Default is the economic equivalent of major invasive surgery: an aggressive intervention with high risks and side effects which is only justified when it is indispensable for restoring an economy to health. Default makes sense only when a country is insolvent. Read more