Are fixed exchange rates bad for growth? Much of the economic literature suggests no causal relation between a country’s exchange rate regime and economic growth. But the IMF has produced a paper suggesting that sub-Saharan Africa may be different.
Manuk Ghazanchyan and Janet Stotsky, the authors, perform a random effects model and find that non-oil exporting nations that claimed to have a flexible exchange rate had significantly higher GDP per capita growth from 1999 to 2011. Continue reading »
The IMF may have outlined the risks to sub-Saharan Africa from tighter monetary policy in the US and other shocks (read the FT’s Javier Blas for the full story) – but as the report makes clear, it’s not just the US that has an impact on Africa’s fortunes.
There’s China too, of course. In a section titled Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers through Trade?, the Fund looks to quantify and group the countries most exposed to a China slowdown. Continue reading »
By Andrew Brown of Emerging Capital Partners
Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a further drop in China’s growth to 7.3 per cent in 2014, the lowest figure that the country has experienced in the last 23 years.
China’s continued economic slowdown as it shifts from export-led to consumer-driven growth has prompted speculation as to the knock-on effect on economies that have benefited from China’s rise. Debate has centred on whether many frontier economies, including those of sub-Saharan Africa, are reliant on continued rapid growth in China’s demand for commodities to drive their own economic development. Continue reading »
What’s the difference between Kenya and Nigeria? About two centuries, according to a new study by Stephen Broadberry and Leigh Gardner, two professors at the London School of Economics.
The pair have totted up the levels of GDP per capita of the countries of Africa, and compared them with historic rates of GDP per person in pre-industrial Europe. Citizens of Sierra Leone are about as rich as early medieval Englishmen, and modern-day Kenyans are just as rich as Elizabethans. Continue reading »
It was the growth story that everyone was talking about. Africa, especially the sub-Saharan part, was finally coming good, with growth rates averaging well over 5 per cent and seemingly a one-way bet.
But the in its latest world economic outlook, the IMF has trimmed its 2013 growth forecast for the region by 0.4 percentage points. That puts it alongside Latin America as the region with the biggest cut in the IMF’s forecast. Even North Africa – including troubled Egypt – had a smaller cut in its growth forecast. What gives? Continue reading »
French retail giant Carrefour has its sights set on sub-Saharan Africa’s booming consumer markets, and will begin setting up shop on the west coast of the continent within the next two years.
A joint venture between the supermarket retailer and the Africa-focused trading and distribution company CFAO – a subsidiary of Toyota Tsusho, the Toyota Group’s trading arm – announced on Thursday will open outlets across eight central and west African countries. Continue reading »
From the ‘hopeless’ to the ‘hopeful’ continent, a decade of strong growth has changed perceptions of sub-Saharan African economies – not least among international investors, who have rushed to recent Eurobond offerings from the likes of Zambia and Rwanda. Rubbing against the optimism though are criticisms that the growth achieved has been far from inclusive, with human development lagging behind. Chart of the week takes a look. Continue reading »
By Craig Baker and Andy Ratcliffe
The arguments over whether South Africa should still receive aid from Britain, following Justine Greening’s announcement that there would be no new DFID projects in South Africa, show how the global debate about the continent is shifting.
Africa was once viewed as a region that had stalled, making little or no progress. Now, the world is starting to notice the pace of economic change. Headlines on the theme of ‘Africa rising‘ are appearing more and more in international newspapers. But many doubt that this economic growth is actually improving living standards for the average African citizens. Continue reading »
By Tony Elumelu
Africa’s growth continues to make headlines at home and abroad. But while the continent has made impressive gains at a macro level, those gains have been slow in creating jobs and wealth at a local level.
More needs to be done, and soon, if Africa’s growth is to be sustained, and Africa is to reach its true economic potential. Talk of a demographic dividend, is in reality a wake up call for politicians and the private sector, bringing with it considerable social, economic and environmental challenges. Continue reading »
By Bright B Simons of IMANI Ghana
There are two prevailing and conflicting views of progress in Africa: the ‘incrementalists’ and the ‘cyclicalists’. The incrementalists say Africa is ‘catching up’; the cyclicalists say it is ‘not catching up fast enough’ because it is locked in a ‘two steps forward one step backward’ rhythm.
My opinion is that both views are muddled. Continue reading »
By Kandeh K Yumkella of UNIDO
When I look at the future of my continent, three words come to mind: hope, opportunity and responsibility.
Hope, because there is positive change happening throughout Africa. Opportunity, because of the commodity boom. Responsibility, because we – the African people and our leaders – still need to create 10m jobs a year for our young people, and lift out of poverty the over 50 per cent of Africans who still live below $2 per day. Continue reading »
Africa’s fast-growing personal care and beauty markets are prompting ambitious innovation plans from two of the sector’s giants, Unilever and L’Oreal, both looking to capture the expanding middle classes.
But you can’t just take all your western or Asian products and sell them in Africa – new, tailored ranges are needed. Continue reading »
GDP growth is thought to be correlated to everything from conflict risk to whiskey consumption. And the current slew of positive stories about Africa are driven, in part, by the impressive GDP statistics posted by countries across the continent.
But these numbers are poor estimations of economic development, says Morten Jerven at Simon Fraser University. His argument is not that GDP does not say much about happiness, equality, environmental sustainability. It’s a more technical point: many figures are, well, just wrong. African GDP might actually be growing faster than we think. Continue reading »