By Ganeshan Wignaraja and Juzhong Zhuang*
Rising protectionist sentiment in the West and a dramatic decline in global trade since 2011 have led many to speculate that Asia’s era of export-led growth will end soon. This speculation is overdone. While the slowdown in trade does demand responses, Asia is well positioned to be a bulwark against protectionism. In fact, it can lead global trade in the years to come.
But, getting the responses right will require a clear understanding of the causes. Policy makers need to ask first what explains the export slowdown, and what this means for Asian economies. The story starts with the great recession in 2008, which left advanced countries stuck in low growth, low demand environments that have weighed heavily on Asia’s export-dominated economies. Read more
We now know that the UK will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by the end of March 2017, giving the country two years to negotiate its exit from the European Union. But while most pundits have focused on the UK’s future policies regarding the EU, the UK must think seriously about how to use the opportunity of Brexit to reconsider its trading relationships with Asia, the world’s fastest-growing region.
Asia is a bright spot in a fragile world economy. While advanced economies are projected to grow at an anaemic 1.4 per cent this year, developing countries in Asia continue to grow at 5.7 per cent, with India leading the way at an impressive 7.4 per cent clip. What’s more, the region is home to a growing consumption-oriented middle class, which will reach over 2bn people by 2030. Read more
By Chandran Nair, Global Institute for Tomorrow
At a recent World Economic Forum in Kuala Lumpur, the opening panel was invited to debate one of the leitmotifs of our age – the way in which technology and digital disruption are reshaping destinies in the Southeast Asian region.
Guided by the anchor of a global media channel, the panelists dutifully paid homage to this new religion and its scriptures. There were no questions about what the region’s biggest challenges are, how we got here in the first place, no questioning of the mindless activities that have sprung from the internet, no alternatives that did not involve “the cloud”.
The only worry about the future they discussed was the threat of cybercrime. They did not ask how many passwords are we going to need to protect our bank accounts and our data from the rewarding world of cybercrime, nor how children could be protected from the effects of on-demand pornography, nor who will buy the things made by robots when there are no more jobs to speak of. Read more
Kevin Martin, HSBC
Don’t underestimate the Asean consumer.
Yes, there are only about half as many of them as there are in China or India. And the typical shopper in the ten-member Association of South East Asian Nationsis not as wealthy as Mr. or Ms. Europe.
But as a whole, Asean’s 620m-plus inhabitants are an increasingly powerful source of global demand, and a potential game-changer for companies that are looking for growth in a tough and uncertain global environment.
Mr. and Ms.Asean have come a long way in a short time. Read more
By Jayant Rikhye, HSBC
To the list of emerging Asia’s economic powerhouses, add one more: South East Asia and its 625 million inhabitants.
Spanning countries as diverse as Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore, the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) is often considered an “also-ran” that gets far less attention than China and India.
To underestimate the region, however, would be a mistake. Read more
By Lim Cheng Teck, Standard Chartered Bank
There was a lot of excitement recently at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Jakarta about the Asean Economic Community (AEC), due to become a reality by the end of this year.
However, one wonders if the closer integration of the grouping’s 10 member states matters as much to Asean’s people and companies as it does to the policymakers and business leaders opining at WEF. Given the obvious potential of this powerful union of 625m citizens – the world’s seventh largest economy and one of its fastest growing – why hasn’t the idea of the AEC taken off in a big way yet? Read more
By Hugo Brennan, Verisk Maplecroft
When the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) launches its economic integration project in December this year, it could provide the region with the impetus to become a key emerging market powerhouse. However, the 10 country grouping needs to overcome several significant hurdles if the proposed ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is to succeed in freeing up trade and commerce between member states.
Chief among these is ASEAN’s institutional weakness, which is hampering efforts to bring together diverging national interests and counteract economic protectionist sentiment in key members, such as Indonesia. Many countries in the bloc also face difficult political realities on the domestic front which have the potential to divert attention away from the goal of integration. The success of the AEC will hinge on these factors, but whether it prospers or flounders, foreign businesses in the region will face a changing investment landscape that they need to be prepared for. Read more
For Tony Fernandes, CEO of AirAsia, the recent fall in the price of oil was an early Christmas present. By the end of the day last week that the airline boss had taken to twitter to express his delight, the price of Brent crude had fallen further to $69.78 a barrel, its lowest price in four years.
Fernandes’ enthusiasm can be easily understood. Airlines spend more than 30 per cent of their operating costs on fuel: the oil price fall means higher profits for the industry, which can now lower fares to attract more customers.
Stock market investors have also been buoyant toward airlines. US airlines have seen their stocks surge over the past two months, while China’s three largest airline companies gained over 10% last week. Meanwhile, airlines in the Asia-Pacific have been reported to be waiting for oil prices to fall more before “hedging” their fuel needs for the next year in an attempt to capitalise on the price slide. Read more
In spite of Mikhail Gorbachev’s warning this month that the world is on the brink of a new Cold War, it is Asia that we should be worrying about, says former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. The region is home to seven flashpoints which, if they erupt, could end the greatest economic growth story of the 21st century.
“We face this remarkable set of circumstances where global growth will be driven from Asia,” Rudd told beyondbrics in a recent interview in Dubai.“But Asia from a political perspective is a potentially unstable region. So the world [should have] a deep interest in not just the future growth trajectory, but also the political and security circumstances which underpin that equation.” Read more
With China’s economy slowing, Japanese companies looking for an alternative to China due to political friction with Tokyo’s larger neighbour and a host of other factors, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has become flavour of the year for some portfolio investors and many companies.
If Asean were a country, the collective gross domestic product of its 10 members – from Myanmar on its western fringe to the Philippines at its easternmost point – would make it the world’s seventh largest economy, ahead of California. With combined gross domestic product of $2.4tn, its economies collectively were 25 per cent larger than that of India in 2013. Read more
The dream of an “Asean car” was first floated, in broad terms, by former prime minister of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohamad, when he spearheaded the creation of Proton in the 1980s. The idea was to form a national Malaysian car company that could be exported to Southeast Asia and beyond.
That didn’t quite work. Proton failed to gain traction much beyond its home market of Malaysia, although it did see some success as a low-priced, competently engineered vehicle in Britain for a time, thanks to the provision of engines by Mitsubishi of Japan.
Now, the idea has resurfaced. Najib Razak, current Malaysian prime minister, has announced that Malaysia and Indonesia plan jointly to develop an “Asean car”. Read more
Nations have negotiated trade agreements in one form or another for centuries. And for centuries economists have undoubtedly been facing the same question: Do trade agreements really matter?
The orthodox answer is obviously that they do. When you lower the barriers to trade goods flow more freely across borders and businesses, consumers and economies as a whole benefit as a result. But HSBC and the Economist Intelligence Unit are out with a new business survey that offers some interesting practical realities. Read more
Of all the colonial legacies left by Britain, France and the Netherlands in Asia, one of the least talked-about – yet arguably one of the most lasting and problematic – is the patchwork of legal systems that divides the region.
Doing business in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is gradually getting easier thanks to the elimination of tariff barriers, expansion of supply chains and gradual harmonisation of customs procedures.
Yet one of the big “soft” barriers to greater Asean integration, and one which makes life hard for multinationals and ambitious local companies alike, are the differing jurisdictions across the 10-member bloc. Read more
“When eating an elephant, take one bite at a time”, US Army officer and Vietnam veteran Creighton Abrams once said.
In his new book, The Rise of the New East, Ben Simpfendorfer does just that. His elephant is “The East”, the group of almost 50 emerging markets ranging from Turkey to China that is home to well over half of the world population.
Simpfendorfer gives his topic a thorough treatment. While his insights seem logical and intuitive, taken together they give an impressive oversight of into key trends shaping the region. beyondbrics noted five insights that particularly stood out. Read more
Najib Razak, Malaysia’s prime minister, is so pleased that his country’s currency, the ringgit, is at its strongest level since 2012 that he felt the need to tweet it on Wednesday.
He added that – insha-Allah, or God willing – the growth rate of the majority Muslim nation would “remain anchored by strong domestic demand”.
If a report just out by Moody’s Investors Service is correct, Malaysia will need all the help it can get to ensure it remains on a healthy growth trajectory, with such reliance on domestic demand. Read more
By Michael Power of Investec Asset Management
MSCI has moved in mysterious ways, its wonders to perform… and again left Chinese stocks out of its global benchmark indices. At the same time, we learn that, after three years in index limbo, it will not add South Korea and Taiwan to the family of developed markets. These decisions have happened despite the fact that all three nations are among the world’s top 25 economies: China at number 2, Korea at 15 and Taiwan at 25. Read more
By Gavin Bowring, Asean Confidential
China’s two-way trade with the 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has grown more than fivefold over the past decade and is on course to reach nearly $500bn this year. However, Chinese direct investment into Asean has been relatively anemic by comparison, accounting for only 7 per cent of China’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) stock.
But if Beijing gets its way, this is set to change. China plans a fivefold ramp up of its FDI in the region to a cumulative $150bn by 2020 from $30bn currently. Over the same period, it sees a doubling in bilateral trade to $1trn by 2020. The map below sets out the current trade flows and dynamics. Read more
Brewed coffee may not be an obvious market in southeast Asia, a region with a strong tea-drinking culture thanks to the region’s ethnic Chinese populations.
But Costa Coffee and its rivals think otherwise. The UK-based coffee chain – part of the London-listed Whitbread brewing and hotels group – is in the early stages of expanding into the region, home to 620m people and a growing middle class. Read more
If you are doing business in Asean – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – be prepared for an electric shock.
Analysts at ANZ have looked at what’s happening with electricity prices across the region and are warning that they are set to rise, making it considerably more expensive to run factories. It will also add half a basis point on average to inflation, which is already inching up. Read more
By Kim Kyung-Hoon of SERI
Global investors who have shifted to “safer” Korea from southeast Asia should not assume they are unbuckled completely. Korea is raising its bet on Asean and its corporations’ balance sheets should increasingly reflect the economic direction of the 10-nation bloc.
Fronting the push is President Park Geun-hye’s self-styled “sales diplomacy.” Read more