Brazil will grow by 3 to 4 per cent in 2013! And that’s on the authority of Guido Mantega, finance minister, aka Guido the Forecaster, so it must be true.
It’s understandable that Mantega would want to put a brave face on things after the IBGE, Brazil’s statistics agency, published another set of disappointing growth figures on Friday. But with GDP growing just 0.9 per cent in 2012 – rather less than Mantega’s initial and persistent projections of 3 to 4 per cent – his relentless optimism is doing nothing for the government’s credibility. Continue reading »
By Tony Volpon of Nomura
Why has growth in Brazil been so disappointing these past two years, falling from 7.5 per cent in 2010 to below 1 per cent in 2012? There are two competing responses. The first, favored by the government, puts the blame mainly on external factors, such as the European crisis and the growth slowdown in China. The second emphasizes supply-side constraints, whether in poor infrastructure or tight labor markets.
Though these two explanations are not mutually exclusive, they are hard to fully square up with the data. Continue reading »
How gloomy can you get? The Brazilian central bank’s latest weekly survey of market economists suggests the sky, or rather the ground, is the limit. The survey’s consensus on GDP growth this year is now 3.2 per cent, down from 3.26 per cent a week earlier, 3.3 per cent the week before that, 3.4 before that, 3.5 before that, and so on back in time to late November, when it began falling from the 4 per cent that had been expected for several months.
But while growth is creeping down, inflation is creeping up. The two make a miserable combination. Continue reading »
Patriotic Brazilians look away now: Brazil is no longer the world’s sixth-biggest economy.
According to recent forecasts from the IMF and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the UK regained its place as the world’s sixth-biggest economy last year, shunting Brazil back down to seventh place. Continue reading »
The last day of the year seems rather late to be revising your forecasts for 2012 – but that is what economists surveyed by Brazil’s central bank have done. And it’s a dismal way to ring out the old and ring in the new: economic growth in 2012 was less than 1 per cent, they reckon. Continue reading »
It’s an old Brazilian cliché but one that now seems more apt than ever: Brazil is not for beginners.
With only three weeks to go until the new year, the world’s best economists still can’t work out what their 2012 GDP forecasts should be for Brazil. Continue reading »
A few months ago, Alexandre Tombini, governor of Brazil’s central bank, told beyondbrics that Brazil was finally “going horizontal”. Enough of picking winners and piecemeal, ad hoc measures, he said: it was time for across-the-board reforms that would deliver a more efficient economy and a level playing field for all.
So much for that. Back in the present day, Guido Mantega, optimist and finance minister, on Tuesday announced cuts in payroll and other taxes and a special line in finance for the construction industry. After Friday’s shocking GDP figures, it looks like a knee-jerk effort to get the economy moving – or at least its most labour-intensive sector. Continue reading »
It seems late in the year to be changing your mind but that hasn’t stopped the 100 or so economists surveyed each week by Brazil’s central bank sharply reducing their consensus forecast for 2012 GDP growth: just 1.27 per cent, they say on Monday, down from 1.5 per cent a week ago.
Not only that, they expect a weaker economy in 2013 – 3.7 per cent growth, down from 3.94 per cent last week – and a weaker real by the end of this year (in four weeks’ time): R$2.07 against the US dollar, from R$2.03 a week ago. Continue reading »
A GDP proxy released by Brazil’s central bank on Wednesday shows quarter-on-quarter adjusted growth in the third quarter was 1.15 per cent – an annualised rate of 4.6 per cent. Not bad for an economy supposed to be stuck in the doldrums. Continue reading »
When Credit Suisse said back in June that Brazil’s economy would grow by just 1.5 per cent this year, Guido Mantega, finance minister, described the prediction as “a joke”.
But having revised his own forecast down from 4 per cent to 2.5 per cent, Mantega (pictured) may have to take Credit Suisse more seriously. The latest weekly survey of market economists from Brazil’s central bank puts GDP growth at 1.57 per cent. Continue reading »
When it comes to Brazil and GDP data, it’s always worth looking beyond the headline numbers.
On the face of it, the 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter expansion reported by the national statistics office on Friday was encouraging. It was the fastest pace of growth in a year and suggested that recent stimulus measures had kick-started the economy’s recovery.
Look a bit closer, however, and you will find that the headline number was mainly boosted by a 4.9 per cent expansion in agriculture. Look closer still, and you will see that was largely a result of higher corn production. Continue reading »
The news could hardly be better for the government of Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff. After months of egging the economy on with a mix of protectionist and stimulus measures and heady rhetoric, finally some results.
Not only has the central bank’s forward indicator on gross domestic product indicated stronger growth in June than expected but retail sales and job creation have also come in better than expected. Continue reading »
Like the sun in an eclipse, economic growth in Brazil has suddenly disappeared thanks to the meltdown of the world’s largest trading bloc, the eurozone.
Just when it will return to view is anybody’s guess but the darkness left by its absence sure looks scary. Continue reading »
At first glance, Brazil’s GDP data on Friday just seemed a bit weird.
Industry, which has long been viewed as the economy’s weak spot, jumped 1.7 per cent in the first quarter from the previous three months. While that may not seem like much for a supposedly ‘booming’ BRIC, it was rather miraculous given that overall GDP rose only 0.2 per cent. Continue reading »