In case you missed James Kynge’s analysis of emerging market fragility, here’s a quick chart recap. Read more

If you had $100 at the start of 2013, and took a punt on a few emerging market exchanges, which ones would have made you a fast buck, and which would have reduced you to tears?

Beyondbrics takes a look at the best and worst performers in 2013. Read more

In case you missed it, here’s a great chart from Robin Wigglesworth’s Local currency bond market given revamp story: it shows how investors are missing out on emerging market corporate local debt. Read the full story here; chart after the break. Read more

The Fed’s announcement that tapering can wait has given emerging market currencies and equities a big boost.

Here are a few key charts, which will update during the day. Read more

It’s a growth rate that most other countries can barely dream of, but for China, this quarter’s GDP growth is a disappointment.

This chart shows why (after the break): Read more

So much for the T in Mist: Turkish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 was just 1.4 per cent – lower than consensus forecast and the lowest rate since 2009.

Overall it made for 2.2 per cent growth for the full year – a marked slowdown from the previous two years, when 8 plus per cent was the norm. [Chart after the break.] Read more

When it comes to manufacturing indices, China is the big one. The question is which index to look at: the official state figures, or the widely-used HSBC/Markit index? They can often show different results.

For March, it’s relatively good news whichever index you pick. Official figures? Up, at 50.9. (50 is the mark that separates expansion from contraction), rising from 50.1 in February. HSBC/Markit? Up, at 51.6, higher than February’s 50.4. Read more

If you want to measure investor confidence in a country, foreign direct investment isn’t a bad guide. In which case, numbers released on Tuesday should give both the China bulls and bears something to think about.

On a year-to-year basis, inbound FDI was up in February for the first time in nine months – up 6 per cent, but month-to-month it was down. (There is an update to this post – see below). Read more

After being one of the world’s worst performing stock markets for the past three years, Shanghai has finally turned the corner, gaining 23 per cent since the start of December.

With a break from trading this week for the Chinese New Year holiday, this is a good opportunity to take a closer look at the Shanghai rally. Three interesting facts, each illustrated by a chart below, stand out. Taken together, they raise the tantalising possibility that Shanghai is maturing as a market, with institutions not retail investors driving the rally. Read more

thai farmer plants riceAfter more than 30 years at the top, Thailand has lost its spot to India as the world’s number one rice exporter, slipping to third place last year due largely to a controversial government farm subsidy policy.

Now some critics say that as well as disrupting exports, the policy could undermine the food security because the government’s radical intervention could make supplies less stable in the future. Read more

China’s trade figures released on Monday aren’t much to cheer about. In contrast to improved retail sales and investment data released over the weekend, Monday’s figures showed exports increased just 2.9 per cent year on year, with imports flat. Markets were uncertain what to make of it all.

See the chart after the break. Read more

That’s a nice way to end the week: PICC’s first day of trading in Hong Kong has shown that there is appetite – especially among retail investors – for a slightly underpriced IPO stock. The question is, with an opening day pop of over 7 per cent, did the company leave too much on the table?

Source: Bloomberg

 Read more

The relentless slow down in the Indian economy goes on, with the government on Friday posting figures showing GDP rose by an annual rate of just 5.3 per cent in the the three months to September, down from 5.5 per cent in the previous quarter.

Investors were prepared for disappointment and took the announcement in their stride, with the stock market retaining this week’s sharp gain and rising another 0.7 per cent. But this performance doesn’t bode well for a country that hopes to achieve 10 per cent growth and lift its vast population out of poverty. Read more

The Philippine economy unexpectedly surged in the quarter ending in September, growing by 7.1 year-on-year from a revised 6 per cent in the previous three-month period, as well-timed monetary easing and accelerated government spending helped counter the effects of the global and regional slowdown.

In the first nine months of the year, the Philippines grew 6.5 per cent compared to 3.9 per cent in the same period last year, according to the government National Statistical Coordination BoardRead more

That’s the mining effect.

South Africa’s GDP (seasonally adjusted) for the third quarter of 2012 increased by 1.2 per cent, compared with the 3.4 per cent (revised from 3.2 per cent) Q2 figure. Read more

While average wages in emerging markets have increased in many countries, especially China, they are still well behind those in developed nations.

But not at the top. Over the last decade, senior salaries in EMs have caught up with those in the west, and in many cases surpassed them, according to a report by management consultancy Hay GroupRead more

Last week’s infrastructure plans show China is becoming a bit more serious about responding to the worrying slowdown in growth.

Until the money materialises, it will be hard to judge the size of the stimulus. But in the meantime, monthly numbers on new bank lending suggest that Beijing is steadily increasing the economic boost it wants to deliver, even though it’s not anything like 2008-09.

According to data published on Tuesday, new local-currency lending hit Rmb703.9bn ($111bn) in August, up from Rmb540.1bn in July, and the highest August figure recorded. It surprised analysts, coming in Rmb 100bn higher than the Bloomberg median economists prediction of Rmb 600bn. Even more importantly, as the chart below shows, the trend is firmly on the rise. Read more

China’s downturn is spreading to the sectors and companies that were expected to withstand the slowdown and drive growth in the region.

Cash is king in all aspects of business – and everyone knows that companies can only report good accounting results for so long if their underlying cash flows aren’t backing up this picture. This is especially the case if companies have been driving sales with vendor financing.

One-third of companies in an analysis by the FT slipped into negative cash flow in their most recent quarter – and of those about 30 per cent had not shown similar patterns last year, meaning it was unlikely that seasonal factors were at play. Read more

What’s in a name? Quite a lot if you are an emerging markets currency investor.

For the year to date, four of the top five EM currencies are pesos. As the chart shows, the Chilean peso tops the table with an 8.2 per cent gain against the US$, followed by the Colombian peso in third place on 5.8 per cent, the Mexican peso fourth on 4.2 per cent and the Philippine peso fifth on 3.9 per cent.

As the chart below the break shows, only the Hungarian forint in second place with a 6.9 per cent gain prevents the pesos claiming a clean sweep. Read more