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In case you missed James Kynge’s analysis of emerging market fragility, here’s a quick chart recap. 

If you had $100 at the start of 2013, and took a punt on a few emerging market exchanges, which ones would have made you a fast buck, and which would have reduced you to tears?

Beyondbrics takes a look at the best and worst performers in 2013. 

In case you missed it, here’s a great chart from Robin Wigglesworth’s Local currency bond market given revamp story: it shows how investors are missing out on emerging market corporate local debt. Read the full story here; chart after the break. 

The Fed’s announcement that tapering can wait has given emerging market currencies and equities a big boost.

Here are a few key charts, which will update during the day. 

It’s a growth rate that most other countries can barely dream of, but for China, this quarter’s GDP growth is a disappointment.

This chart shows why (after the break): 

So much for the T in Mist: Turkish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 was just 1.4 per cent – lower than consensus forecast and the lowest rate since 2009.

Overall it made for 2.2 per cent growth for the full year – a marked slowdown from the previous two years, when 8 plus per cent was the norm. [Chart after the break.] 

When it comes to manufacturing indices, China is the big one. The question is which index to look at: the official state figures, or the widely-used HSBC/Markit index? They can often show different results.

For March, it’s relatively good news whichever index you pick. Official figures? Up, at 50.9. (50 is the mark that separates expansion from contraction), rising from 50.1 in February. HSBC/Markit? Up, at 51.6, higher than February’s 50.4. 

If you want to measure investor confidence in a country, foreign direct investment isn’t a bad guide. In which case, numbers released on Tuesday should give both the China bulls and bears something to think about.

On a year-to-year basis, inbound FDI was up in February for the first time in nine months – up 6 per cent, but month-to-month it was down. (There is an update to this post – see below). 

After being one of the world’s worst performing stock markets for the past three years, Shanghai has finally turned the corner, gaining 23 per cent since the start of December.

With a break from trading this week for the Chinese New Year holiday, this is a good opportunity to take a closer look at the Shanghai rally. Three interesting facts, each illustrated by a chart below, stand out. Taken together, they raise the tantalising possibility that Shanghai is maturing as a market, with institutions not retail investors driving the rally. 

thai farmer plants riceAfter more than 30 years at the top, Thailand has lost its spot to India as the world’s number one rice exporter, slipping to third place last year due largely to a controversial government farm subsidy policy.

Now some critics say that as well as disrupting exports, the policy could undermine the food security because the government’s radical intervention could make supplies less stable in the future. 

China’s trade figures released on Monday aren’t much to cheer about. In contrast to improved retail sales and investment data released over the weekend, Monday’s figures showed exports increased just 2.9 per cent year on year, with imports flat. Markets were uncertain what to make of it all.

See the chart after the break. 

That’s a nice way to end the week: PICC’s first day of trading in Hong Kong has shown that there is appetite – especially among retail investors – for a slightly underpriced IPO stock. The question is, with an opening day pop of over 7 per cent, did the company leave too much on the table?

Source: Bloomberg

 

The relentless slow down in the Indian economy goes on, with the government on Friday posting figures showing GDP rose by an annual rate of just 5.3 per cent in the the three months to September, down from 5.5 per cent in the previous quarter.

Investors were prepared for disappointment and took the announcement in their stride, with the stock market retaining this week’s sharp gain and rising another 0.7 per cent. But this performance doesn’t bode well for a country that hopes to achieve 10 per cent growth and lift its vast population out of poverty. 

The Philippine economy unexpectedly surged in the quarter ending in September, growing by 7.1 year-on-year from a revised 6 per cent in the previous three-month period, as well-timed monetary easing and accelerated government spending helped counter the effects of the global and regional slowdown.

In the first nine months of the year, the Philippines grew 6.5 per cent compared to 3.9 per cent in the same period last year, according to the government National Statistical Coordination Board