[chart] China GDP: what a 7.7% slowdown looks like
It’s a growth rate that most other countries can barely dream of, but for China, this quarter’s GDP growth is a disappointment.
This chart shows why (after the break): Continue reading »
[chart] Turkey GDP: quick, quick, slow
So much for the T in Mist: Turkish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 was just 1.4 per cent – lower than consensus forecast and the lowest rate since 2009.
Overall it made for 2.2 per cent growth for the full year – a marked slowdown from the previous two years, when 8 plus per cent was the norm. [Chart after the break.] Continue reading »
China PMI: on the up
When it comes to manufacturing indices, China is the big one. The question is which index to look at: the official state figures, or the widely-used HSBC/Markit index? They can often show different results.
For March, it’s relatively good news whichever index you pick. Official figures? Up, at 50.9. (50 is the mark that separates expansion from contraction), rising from 50.1 in February. HSBC/Markit? Up, at 51.6, higher than February’s 50.4. Continue reading »
[chart] China FDI: bouncing back?
If you want to measure investor confidence in a country, foreign direct investment isn’t a bad guide. In which case, numbers released on Tuesday should give both the China bulls and bears something to think about.
On a year-to-year basis, inbound FDI was up in February for the first time in nine months – up 6 per cent, but month-to-month it was down. (There is an update to this post – see below). Continue reading »
Shanghai’s rally in charts: a maturing market at last?
After being one of the world’s worst performing stock markets for the past three years, Shanghai has finally turned the corner, gaining 23 per cent since the start of December.
With a break from trading this week for the Chinese New Year holiday, this is a good opportunity to take a closer look at the Shanghai rally. Three interesting facts, each illustrated by a chart below, stand out. Taken together, they raise the tantalising possibility that Shanghai is maturing as a market, with institutions not retail investors driving the rally. Continue reading »
Rice policy costs Thais export crown
After more than 30 years at the top, Thailand has lost its spot to India as the world’s number one rice exporter, slipping to third place last year due largely to a controversial government farm subsidy policy.
Now some critics say that as well as disrupting exports, the policy could undermine the food security because the government’s radical intervention could make supplies less stable in the future. Continue reading »
S Korea: current account record high
It’s the exports, of course. Korea’s current account registered a record surplus of $6.88bn in November, up from $5.78bn in October, and beating July’s previous record of $6.14bn.
The trade strength pushed the won to appreciate around 0.45 per cent against the dollar on Friday, at around 1,067.6 per USD, continuing the rally from May. Continue reading »
China trade: slower, slowing, not slowest
China’s trade figures released on Monday aren’t much to cheer about. In contrast to improved retail sales and investment data released over the weekend, Monday’s figures showed exports increased just 2.9 per cent year on year, with imports flat. Markets were uncertain what to make of it all.
See the chart after the break. Continue reading »
[chart] PICC’s opening day pop
That’s a nice way to end the week: PICC’s first day of trading in Hong Kong has shown that there is appetite – especially among retail investors – for a slightly underpriced IPO stock. The question is, with an opening day pop of over 7 per cent, did the company leave too much on the table?
Source: Bloomberg
India GDP: slowing fast
The relentless slow down in the Indian economy goes on, with the government on Friday posting figures showing GDP rose by an annual rate of just 5.3 per cent in the the three months to September, down from 5.5 per cent in the previous quarter.
Investors were prepared for disappointment and took the announcement in their stride, with the stock market retaining this week’s sharp gain and rising another 0.7 per cent. But this performance doesn’t bode well for a country that hopes to achieve 10 per cent growth and lift its vast population out of poverty. Continue reading »
Philippines GDP: soaring away
The Philippine economy unexpectedly surged in the quarter ending in September, growing by 7.1 year-on-year from a revised 6 per cent in the previous three-month period, as well-timed monetary easing and accelerated government spending helped counter the effects of the global and regional slowdown.
In the first nine months of the year, the Philippines grew 6.5 per cent compared to 3.9 per cent in the same period last year, according to the government National Statistical Coordination Board. Continue reading »
[snap] S Africa GDP slows to 1.2%
That’s the mining effect.
South Africa’s GDP (seasonally adjusted) for the third quarter of 2012 increased by 1.2 per cent, compared with the 3.4 per cent (revised from 3.2 per cent) Q2 figure. Continue reading »
EM wages: paying more at the top
While average wages in emerging markets have increased in many countries, especially China, they are still well behind those in developed nations.
But not at the top. Over the last decade, senior salaries in EMs have caught up with those in the west, and in many cases surpassed them, according to a report by management consultancy Hay Group. Continue reading »
China: Beijing loosens purse strings and boosts new loans faster than forecast
Last week’s infrastructure plans show China is becoming a bit more serious about responding to the worrying slowdown in growth.
Until the money materialises, it will be hard to judge the size of the stimulus. But in the meantime, monthly numbers on new bank lending suggest that Beijing is steadily increasing the economic boost it wants to deliver, even though it’s not anything like 2008-09.
According to data published on Tuesday, new local-currency lending hit Rmb703.9bn ($111bn) in August, up from Rmb540.1bn in July, and the highest August figure recorded. It surprised analysts, coming in Rmb 100bn higher than the Bloomberg median economists prediction of Rmb 600bn. Even more importantly, as the chart below shows, the trend is firmly on the rise. Continue reading »
China’s cash crunch: the numbers
China’s downturn is spreading to the sectors and companies that were expected to withstand the slowdown and drive growth in the region.
Cash is king in all aspects of business – and everyone knows that companies can only report good accounting results for so long if their underlying cash flows aren’t backing up this picture. This is especially the case if companies have been driving sales with vendor financing.
One-third of companies in an analysis by the FT slipped into negative cash flow in their most recent quarter – and of those about 30 per cent had not shown similar patterns last year, meaning it was unlikely that seasonal factors were at play. Continue reading »
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