All eyes on China Q4 GDP
Friday is going to be all about China’s fourth quarter GDP figure.
With growth in the previous quarter having come in at a disappointing 7.4 per cent – the slowest pace in three years – the big question on everyone’s mind will be: has China’s protracted slowdown finally run its course? Continue reading »
China exports: odd and odder
We’ve been here before, of course – do you trust China’s economic statistics? There are two schools of thought: a) you must be mad and b) it’s all we’ve got so let’s make the best of it.
The latest set of numbers to come under fire are the export figures for December. They came in at a robust and healthy 14.1 per cent. Beyondbrics wrote at the time that some analysts seemed less than cheerful. That was an understatement – UBS and Goldman have come out and said that the figures simply don’t add up. So let’s look at the charge sheet. Continue reading »
China: All the golden week data you could ever want
There has been a smattering of reports about the strength of Chinese tourism revenues over its eight-day golden week holiday, which ended on Sunday. For your convenience, we herewith present a compendium of the most important data points.
For all the concerns about the economy’s slowdown, the figures provide a glimmer of hope that China is making headway in its efforts to unleash domestic consumption as an engine of growth. Continue reading »
China GDP revision: small yet large
China revised its 2011 GDP data on Wednesday. GDP growth was revised up by 0.1 percentage points, from 9.2 per cent to 9.3 per cent. While this sounds small – certainly by comparison with Indian standards – it actually represents difference of Rmb132bn, or $20.7bn – not a whole stimulus package, perhaps, but enough for a fair bit of infrastructure spending.
The boost is all from services, which made up for downward revisions in agriculture and manufacturing. Continue reading »
China lending jumps ahead of GDP data
With just one day to go until China’s second quarter GDP release, there was a spot of positive news: strong monthly lending figures.
New loans last month topped forecasts, reaching Rmb919bn, up from Rmb790bn the previous month. Continue reading »
Chinese econ stats: to doubt or not to doubt?
Is China’s slowdown worse than the government is letting on? That was the provocative claim in a New York Times article last week which reported that officials were manipulating data on everything from tax revenue to power production in order to present a rosier picture of the economy.
But two prominent analysts have now come to Beijing’s defence, arguing that Chinese statistics are reliable and concerns about falsification overblown. They say the truth is that the economy is slowing, not collapsing, and that the data have accurately portrayed this. Continue reading »
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Stefan Wagstyl
Rob Minto
Pan Kwan Yuk
Jonathan Wheatley
Heba Saleh