The first whispers of worry about a Chinese property bubble surfaced in late 2009. Since then, the local real estate market has quickened and slowed in line with government measures to stoke or cool the market, but has never crashed. Nonetheless, some market watchers insist that the Chinese property bubble will burst one day. Recent sector weakness has given them further ammunition, as has the near collapse of Kaisa, a mid-sized Shenzhen-based developer.
Until December 2014, Kaisa’s finances were perceived to be strong and sales were rising. Now its survival is at the mercy of lenders and rivals. Its woes started when the government halted some of its Shenzhen projects in December without giving a reason. The chairman abruptly resigned, while debts to banks and bondholders have gone unpaid and the firm is in the process of being acquired by its competitor. It has yet to reach a consensual solution with its creditors. Read more
Economists are busy downgrading GDP growth forecasts for China following the latest round of data pointing to a bigger-than-expected slowdown.
With exports up just 1 per cent in May, inflation falling to 2.1 per cent, and new bank loans rising more slowly than had been predicted, there’s a sense in the market that Beijing may struggle to reach its 2013 GDP growth target of 7.5 per cent. Fortunately, officials don’t seem to be too worried for the moment. And there’s three days holiday of Dragon Boat Race holidays this week to keep the citizens happy. Read more
Friday is going to be all about China’s fourth quarter GDP figure.
With growth in the previous quarter having come in at a disappointing 7.4 per cent – the slowest pace in three years – the big question on everyone’s mind will be: has China’s protracted slowdown finally run its course? Read more
We’ve been here before, of course – do you trust China’s economic statistics? There are two schools of thought: a) you must be mad and b) it’s all we’ve got so let’s make the best of it.
The latest set of numbers to come under fire are the export figures for December. They came in at a robust and healthy 14.1 per cent. Beyondbrics wrote at the time that some analysts seemed less than cheerful. That was an understatement – UBS and Goldman have come out and said that the figures simply don’t add up. So let’s look at the charge sheet. Read more
There has been a smattering of reports about the strength of Chinese tourism revenues over its eight-day golden week holiday, which ended on Sunday. For your convenience, we herewith present a compendium of the most important data points.
For all the concerns about the economy’s slowdown, the figures provide a glimmer of hope that China is making headway in its efforts to unleash domestic consumption as an engine of growth. Read more
China revised its 2011 GDP data on Wednesday. GDP growth was revised up by 0.1 percentage points, from 9.2 per cent to 9.3 per cent. While this sounds small – certainly by comparison with Indian standards – it actually represents difference of Rmb132bn, or $20.7bn – not a whole stimulus package, perhaps, but enough for a fair bit of infrastructure spending.
The boost is all from services, which made up for downward revisions in agriculture and manufacturing. Read more
With just one day to go until China’s second quarter GDP release, there was a spot of positive news: strong monthly lending figures.
New loans last month topped forecasts, reaching Rmb919bn, up from Rmb790bn the previous month. Read more
Is China’s slowdown worse than the government is letting on? That was the provocative claim in a New York Times article last week which reported that officials were manipulating data on everything from tax revenue to power production in order to present a rosier picture of the economy.
But two prominent analysts have now come to Beijing’s defence, arguing that Chinese statistics are reliable and concerns about falsification overblown. They say the truth is that the economy is slowing, not collapsing, and that the data have accurately portrayed this. Read more