Official figures released on Monday showed that China’s economy is not getting worse – industrial production rose a touch, as did retail sales. Fixed asset investment fell slightly, but stayed above 20 per cent year on year growth.
But those banking on a speedy bounce in Chinese growth are unlikely to take much comfort. Continue reading »
Economists say exports are almost certainly being inflated, notably through the so-called “one-day tour” of goods through bonded export zones in Shenzhen, in southern China, and via the “round-tripping” of goods between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. What exactly is going on? Continue reading »
But, as the chart below shows, it’s not the small month-to-month changes of the past year that matter, but the failure of Beijing’s stimulus measures to give manufacturing a decent boost. With exports weak, industry is clearly struggling. Continue reading »
The arguments predate the global financial crisis, but are given fresh urgency by the crisis-induced deceleration in growth. According to the IMF, there’s bad news and good news. The bad news is that some emerging Asian economies do indeed face significant risks of a “sustained slowdown”. But the good news is that they are less vulnerable than emerging economies in other parts of the world – and that given the right policy choices, they can try to avoid stagnation. Continue reading »
There has been a lot of talk about the ‘great rotation’ from bonds to stocks but are we about to see one from east to west, from China to the US? Chris Watling of Longview Economics talks to the FT’s John Authers about green shoots in the US – and worries in China.
A graphic illustration of the strength of the recent US recovery and of the slowdown in China came on Thursday with Japan’s trade figures.
In the fiscal year to March, exports to the US exceeded those to Japan for the first time since 2009. The figures were affected by an upsurge in anti-Japanese sentiment among Chinese car-buyers. But they also show that there is still some energy left in the old motor that is the US economy, while the Chinese engine may need refueling. Continue reading »
As you’d expect, analysts have been scrambling to make sense of it all, with reasons given ranging from dead pigs to cold weather. But one thing keeps cropping up: the luxury crackdown. Continue reading »
China isn’t holding back in its financial support for a flagging economy. The latest lending figures, published on Thursday, show banks made new local-currency loans totalling Rmb1.06tn ($171.2bn) last month – far more than forecast by analysts polled by Reuters and Bloomberg.
That puts Chinese lenders on target to lend Rmb9tn in new loans this year – well up on last year’s Rmb8.2bn. Continue reading »
Hunting for signs of cyclical recovery in Chinese manufacturing? Look at inventories, says Standard Chartered Bank.
The bank’s economists have compared stocks of raw materials and finished goods in manufacturing companies and established that a big overhang of stock that accumulated in 2011 and 2012 is now falling – and that restocking is starting, albeit patchily. Continue reading »
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