China trade figures: don’t get excited
At first glance, China’s trade figures for January are stellar: exports up 25 per cent year on year, imports up 28.8 per cent.
But as ever at this time of year, the great migration of the Chinese New Year holiday makes reading the data a nightmare. Continue reading »
China exports: odd and odder
We’ve been here before, of course – do you trust China’s economic statistics? There are two schools of thought: a) you must be mad and b) it’s all we’ve got so let’s make the best of it.
The latest set of numbers to come under fire are the export figures for December. They came in at a robust and healthy 14.1 per cent. Beyondbrics wrote at the time that some analysts seemed less than cheerful. That was an understatement – UBS and Goldman have come out and said that the figures simply don’t add up. So let’s look at the charge sheet. Continue reading »
China trade: good news, surely?
China’s exports rebounded to 14.1 per cent year on year in December – far higher than expected by economists. Imports were up 6 per cent too, after five slow months. Stocks have ticked upwards in response. Hurrah!
So why do some analysts sound less than cheerful? Continue reading »
As budget negotiations in Congress drag on towards the end of year deadline, questions are being asked about the global ripple of the US falling off the so-called fiscal cliff.
Should Asia investors be losing sleep over it? Continue reading »
China trade: slower, slowing, not slowest
China’s trade figures released on Monday aren’t much to cheer about. In contrast to improved retail sales and investment data released over the weekend, Monday’s figures showed exports increased just 2.9 per cent year on year, with imports flat. Markets were uncertain what to make of it all.
See the chart after the break. Continue reading »
China exports: a complicated picture
Parsing China’s numbers is not for the faint hearted. The more closely one looks at China’s impressive trade data in September released over the weekend, the more complicated the picture looks.
True, exports grew by 10 per cent – but Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green has adjusted the data to account for seasonal effects and found that September exports were neither hot nor cold, but lukewarm. Continue reading »
Chart of the week: who makes China’s exports – local companies or foreign?
By Valentina Romei and Rob Minto
Another month of disappointing China trade data: on Monday, overall Chinese exports increased just 2.7 per cent in August from a year earlier, and imports dropped 2.6 per cent. Export growth was higher than July’s worrying 1 per cent, but it’s still far from the double-digit growth that was once the norm.
So which companies are providing China’s exports, and where will growth come from in future? Chart of the week takes a look. Continue reading »
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Stefan Wagstyl
Rob Minto
Pan Kwan Yuk
Jonathan Wheatley
Heba Saleh