Latin America is experiencing its worst economic growth — projected to be negative this year – since the lost decade of the 1980s. At this crucial time, the United States is turning its back and stepping backward from Latin America while China takes further steps forward in its economic relations with the region.
President elect Trump has pledged to walk away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), as well as steeply raise tariffs on Mexican manufacturing. He also says he will scrap the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill and engage in questionable fiscal and monetary policies. To top it off, he pledges to deport Mexican and other Latin Americans from the United States and build a wall so they can’t come back. Read more
By Martin Fischer, Alaco
A series of recent Chinese takeovers of Germany’s top tech companies has unnerved many Germans who fear the trend could undermine the economy. Germany has always been more comfortable as an investor than a recipient of investment, with the Chinese shopping spree sparking a wave of protectionist sentiment, which some German politicians are looking to exploit.
Germany has emerged as the preferred destination for Chinese takeovers in Europe. In the first half of 2016 alone, EY, an accountancy firm, reported that Chinese investment in Germany exceeded $10bn – more than the combined total for the previous five years. But Germans are nervous about the influx of cash, primarily because the companies being acquired are small and medium-sized enterprises that form the backbone of the economy. Read more
By Sebastian Heilmann, Mercator Institute for China Studies
A wave of investment from China is breaking across Europe. Chinese takeovers of technological leaders have raised fears of a sell-out of our economies’ competitive advantage. In Germany, the Chinese Midea group’s offer to buy a controlling stake in the Bavarian robotics manufacturer Kuka has triggered fierce resistance.
Midea is the wrong target for the current backlash. But the debate over how to deal with Chinese investors is overdue. China’s state-guided outbound industrial and technology policies, aimed at technological leapfrogging through acquisitions, pose a formidable challenge to national investment regimes and EU competition policy. Read more
By Ken Wong, Eastspring Investments
There is an even chance that, this summer, China’s A-shares will be included for the first time in a key emerging market investment index operated by MSCI, the index provider. If it happens, it will be a welcome development, for the simple reason that it will make the benchmark a more accurate reflection of the emerging market corporate universe.
While the immediate impact of inclusion would be quite small, the longer-run potential for A-shares – which are the stocks of companies listed inside mainland China – to grow in importance within the index is enormous.
Two obstacles to inclusion have been largely removed – reforms to a quota system on investment inflows from abroad and a shortening of the delay in repatriating capital out of China. Read more
By Sarah Lain, Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies
The Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) builds on China’s long-standing economic investment in Central Asia, and it has the potential to further develop Central Asian economies. However, China’s historical track record of investment engagement in the region raises concerns that the SREB could instead exacerbate economic inequalities and poor governance.
China has long been a key driver of infrastructure investment and construction in Central Asia, covering a wide range of sectors. It has invested heavily in the region’s natural resource extraction, with gas, oil, uranium, gold and copper making up key exports from the region. Read more
By Philippe Le Corre and Joel Backaler
This year has all signs of becoming another bumper year for Chinese overseas mergers and acquisition activity. In the first three months alone, the total value of cross-border deals nearly reached 2015 annual totals ($101bn and $109bn, respectively).
High-profile deals from the last three months include: Dalian Wanda’s $3.5bn acquisition of Legendary Pictures, a US media company, Haier’s $5.4bn takeover of GE’s appliances unit and most notably ChemChina’s record-setting $43bn bid for Syngenta, a Swiss-based agri-business group.
However, all of this overseas business activity is occurring against a backdrop of a Chinese domestic economy that is facing myriad challenges with a slower GDP growth forecast of 6.5 per cent, reduced domestic demand and decreasing industrial profits not to mention industrial overcapacity. Read more
By Weifeng Zhong and Zhimin Li
The falling value of China’s yuan has once again become a trigger for state intervention. Fueled by a whopping $1tn in capital outflows last year, downward pressures on the renminbi have prompted the Chinese government to defend the currency by burning $700bn of its foreign-exchange reserves and rolling out a barrage of administrative measures. The latest reserves plunge shows that the government is losing the fight.
While capital flight is a headache for Chinese officials long fixated on managing the renminbi’s value, it may be good news for the rest of the world. As we explain later, it could well mean that the serious economic reforms outlined in China’s new five-year plan, such as deregulations, tax cuts, and other pro-market policies, might become a reality. Read more
By Kevin P. Gallagher, Boston University
As Western-backed development banks and the private sector are on the retreat from Latin America, China’s development banks are coming to the rescue, at least for now.
China’s two development banks, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, provided upwards of $29bn to Latin American governments in 2015, according to new estimates published by Boston University’s Global Economic Governance Initiative and the Washington-based think tank The Inter-American Dialogue.
A three-fold increase from 2014, China’s 2015 finance to Latin America was more than the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and the Development Bank of Latin America combined. Read more
By Spencer Lake, HSBC
Chinese companies have been stepping up their global investment spree in the past 12 months. Mergers and acquisitions by private Chinese investors are becoming the key drivers of the country’s outbound direct investment.
In what has been called the ‘Third Wave’ of China outbound direct investment (ODI), the focus of investment has been on companies in the developed economies in high-tech and services. Previous ‘waves’ have focused on supporting developing economies and investing in commodities and extraction industries. Read more
China is in the early stages of a domestic M&A boom unlike any other elsewhere in the world. Deal pricing, timing, terms, financing and structure are all markedly different than in other major economies, with likely consequences, good and bad, for global corporations and buyout firms eyeing M&A transactions in China.
For these two, as well as companies wishing to find a buyer in China, the game now is to learn the new rules of China M&A and then learn to use them to one’s advantage.
Chinese companies mainly pursue M&A for the same reasons others do – to improve margins, gain efficiencies and please investors. The main difference, and it’s a striking one, is that in most cases domestic Chinese corporate buyers, especially the publicly-quoted ones who are most active now trying to do deals, have no money to buy another business. Read more
By Joel Backaler, Author of “China Goes West”
On March 22, China National Chemical Corporation (CNCC) reached an agreement with the controlling shareholders of Italian tire-maker Pirelli to move forward with a €7bn takeover. If successful, the deal will be one of the largest overseas acquisitions of a European company by a Chinese firm to date.
While CNCC may not have the global recognition of Chinese firms such as Alibaba, Huawei and Lenovo, CNCC and its chairman, Ren Jianxin, are experienced international acquirers. Ren has acquired either directly, or via government driven consolidation, 107 domestic firms and four international businesses in France, Australia and Israel. Read more
By Noor Menai, CTBC Bank USA
In a thinly veiled admonishment, the White House recently accused the UK – our closest ally – of “a policy of constant accommodation” towards China. The parallel drawn to the historical appeasement of Germany by an apprehensive Europe was lost on no one, nor indeed the overwrought nature of the underlying concern.
The proximate cause of this spleen-venting was the surprise breaking of ranks by the UK to join as a founding shareholder the nascent China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB.) This initial $50bn fund has as its’ agenda the financing of overdue infrastructure in Asia. Read more
By Gavin Bowring, Asean Confidential
With the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) gaining support from a growing number of global economic actors, one big question remains. Where will the bank itself be headquartered?
Beijing might seem the obvious choice. But given the political sensitivities surrounding the bank’s formation, it may seek to alleviate fears of Sinocentrism and opt for a neutral, regional destination. A similar calculation resulted in the decision by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) – in which Japan is the largest shareholder – to pitch its regional headquarters in Manila. Read more
By Kevin P. Gallagher and Margaret Myers
Despite the economic slowdown that is gripping Latin America, Chinese finance to the region rose to $22bn in 2014, a 71 per cent jump over 2013. These latest estimates from the China-Latin America Finance Database put 2014 as the second highest year on record for Chinese lending in Latin America and raise the stock of Chinese finance in the region to $119bn since 2005, when China’s banks started reaching out to the Americas.
This new finance couldn’t come at a better time. After a decade-long commodity boom, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Latin America’s economic growth may only reach 2.2 per cent in 2015. As the economy cools, the region’s traditional sources of capital are turning to the United States, beckoned by faster growth and rising interest rates. Read more
By Marty Sun, Goldman Sachs
The launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect last November has made it easier for international investors to access China’s equity markets.
The link got off to a smooth start largely thanks to the money from hedge funds worldwide flowing into Shanghai.
But unlike their hedge fund cousins, less than one-third of Hong Kong’s long-only fund managers (who buy stocks hoping their prices will rise) are using the link to buy Shanghai-listed shares, according to a recent survey by the Hong Kong Investment Funds Association (HKIFA). Access from Europe has been even more measured, with only a few Luxembourg funds approved for the programme, even though a fast track application process has been put in place. Read more
By Stuart Rae and John Lin, AllianceBernstein
Despite a slow start following its launch in November, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect share trading scheme has significantly increased foreign access to China equities and created new investment opportunities. Two sub-sectors are particularly noteworthy for global investors; the food, beverage and tobacco segment and the household durables segment.
A key trend to watch in 2015 will be the likely increasing usage of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. This important capital market reform was launched by the Chinese government last November to help increase the inflow of foreign capital to the Shanghai equity market, while also facilitating greater participation by mainland investors in Hong Kong-listed equities. Read more
Guo Guangchang, an entrepreneur who claims inspiration from China’s oldest sages - as well as from the “sage of Omaha”, Warren Buffett – has topped an inaugural ranking of the wealthiest Chinese investors with a personal fortune estimated at $4.5bn.
Guo (above), 48, typifies the eclectic acquisitiveness of China’s emerging cohort of investors. His company, Fosun International, this month won the longest takeover battle in French history by beating Italian investor Andrea Bonomi to take control of Club Méditerranée, the vacation organiser, after a 16-month wrestling match. Read more
By Hayden Briscoe, Shamaila Khan and Jenny Zeng, AllianceBernstein
China’s economy isn’t headed for a hard or soft landing — instead, it’s more likely to be a long landing. That’s our perspective, based on our team’s recent visit to China to get an up-close look at the economic landscape.
The country’s economy clearly faces another few years of uncertainty and negative headlines, but we think the risks will be contained as long as the government sticks to its reform agenda. On our China trip, we assessed conditions in important cyclical sectors such as banking, basic industries and property. Read more
China’s new charm offensive in Asia – using infrastructure development to garner soft power at the expense of rivals US and Japan – has reached new heights in recent weeks. Multi-billion US dollar deals with strategic partners such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan aside, even countries with reservations about China’s rise have begun taking a more pragmatic view toward using China’s huge foreign exchange reserves to their benefit.
Earlier this month, Indonesian leaders travelled to Beijing seeking to tap financing for power and transport projects, notwithstanding the new administration’s strong emphasis on both national and maritime security. Chinese companies are challenging Japanese bids for high speed rail contracts in Malaysia and Thailand. This week, a team from Indian Railways flew to Beijing to discuss a potential Delhi-Chennai high speed rail link.
Yet in spite of the huge stashes of money available in Beijing, Chinese financing for existing energy projects in Vietnam – an economy with high dependency on China – has been all but frozen as a result of bilateral tensions over the South China Sea, according to research by Asean Confidential, a research service at the Financial Times. Read more
By Alastair Campbell and W. John Hoffmann, Exceptional Resources Group
“There is no difference between reform and anti-corruption: both must be implemented within the framework of law”.
So said Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and with the end of a high level Communist Party meeting last month, the significance of Xi’s “Rule of Law” campaign has become crystal clear. It is a key tool in his attempt to restructure the framework of Party political power and decision-making via the four new Party central leading groups which he chairs. Read more