Turkish high tech: finance needed
By David Edgerly
One of the many challenges facing the Turkish economy is to increase the value added of its products by relying less on simple assembly or use of machines and technology developed abroad.
The experience of AirTies, a high tech company specialising in internet connectivity, demonstrates how a company utilising local engineering talent and a boost from external financing can help drive Turkey into a higher level of economic activity. Continue reading »
Turkey: no growth without innovation
By David Edgerly
There is no question that Turkey has posted some impressive economic numbers over the last decade, numbers that underpin the electoral success of the ruling Justice and Development Party. Two of these numbers, taken from a Turkish Treasury report, show just how far the country has come. Per capita GDP is now over $10,000 compared with less than $3,500 in 2002. Inflation that had averaged 71.6 per cent between 1995-2001 is now around 10 per cent.
But can this growth be sustained? Can Turkey reach the next level of economic development with its current economic model? A leading Turkish businessman recently raised serious questions about the fundamental structure of the economy. Continue reading »
Guest post: Explaining Jordan’s slide
By David Edgerly
Even in the largest markets, numbers like corporate earnings and national accounts alone are never enough to explain sharp market movements. And certainly not in small so-called frontier markets like Jordan. The market capitalisation of the Amman Stock Exchange has dropped steadily from a high of about $40bn in 2007 to $25bn currently. More telling is the decline in average daily volume from a respectable $55m in 2009 to less than $10m now. Jordanian corporate and macro-economic numbers are mixed, but certainly do not explain by themselves the moribund state of the market. Continue reading »
Guest post: foreign investors stand back as locals boost Cairo stocks
By David Edgerly
The international jury may still be undecided on the development of Egyptian politics and economics, but local investors have already handed down their verdict of enthusiastic support. The Cairo Stock Exchange has been one of the stellar performers this year with a gain of over 40 per cent. Continue reading »
By David Edgerly
When could a potential downgrade be a welcome relief? When you’re a broker or fund manager in Athens struggling with disappearing volume and complete lack of interest from major international investment institutions. When the general hubbub of a trading floor has been replaced with the quiet contemplation of fishermen interrupted by occasional shouts of joy when a real customer nibbles at the bait of depressed prices. Continue reading »
Guest post: Iraq’s lifeline to Greek exporters
By David Edgerly
Overlooked in the rubble of Greek public finances is the performance of those Greek companies that have managed to survive and even grow throughout the drama of the country’s struggle to meet the demands of its creditors and remain in the eurozone.
The key to success for most of these companies is the ability to find export markets. And few of them have gone quite as far as the dairy products company Kri Kri to find new outlets. Long active in Germany and neighbouring Bulgaria, the company’s decision to invest in Iraq a few years ago is beginning to pay real dividends. Continue reading »
Guest post: Don’t ignore Iraq
By David Edgerly
There are developed markets, there are emerging markets, there are frontier markets. And then there’s Iraq – very, very far under most investors’ radars. Long associated with despotism, wars and, more recently, factional violence it is easy to overlook the fact that Iraq is actually a wealthy country with enviable recent economic growth and decent macro-economic balances. Continue reading »
Guest post: As Turkey shows, EM investing is a multi-variable exercise
By David Edgerly
A recent piece in the Financial Times noted that many investors are turning increasingly bullish on emerging markets. The argument is that these countries will grow faster than the anemic developed world and that their central banks have more room to cut interest rates. Ergo, investors will get better returns in emerging equity markets. Maybe yes, maybe no. Continue reading »
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