EM youth bulge: a demographic dividend or time bomb?
A fascinating infographic from Euromonitor International (reproduced below) shows us not only that half of the world’s population is aged under 30 but also that 90 per cent of those youngsters are to be found in emerging markets.
So, EMs have youth on their side and the future is rosy! Not so fast… Continue reading »
Davos 2013: EMs need to get rich before they get old
Emerging Markets across the world should be in a hurry to grow richer, according to Jonas Prising, president of recruitment company ManpowerGroup. “Otherwise they’ll lose the a race to get rich before they get old,” he told beyondbrics at Davos.
Whereas countries like Sweden, the UK or the US had several generations to adjust to new levels of economic growth, and could adjust their institutions so everyone could benefit from the countries’ increasing wealth, EMs won’t have that luxury, according to Prising. Continue reading »
China’s only children: risk-avoiding, untrustworthy pessimists?
China’s “little Emperors” have got a lot of bad press in the 30-odd years since Mao Zedong created a generation of pampered and pilloried only children with the “one child policy”. It did not help that KFC, the Western fast food behemoth, opened its first restaurant in China soon afterwards, helping plump up the little darlings to the point where obesity is a problem for children whose parents and grandparents lived through famine.
But now an Australian study has even less nice to say about the generation that dominates China’s labour force. It says the one-child policy has created a generation of risk avoiders. Hardly good news for Beijing’s plan to create an innovation nation by producing millions of Chinese replicas of Steve Jobs. Continue reading »
Booming southeast Asia facing new headwinds: ADB
Robust domestic demand, the rise of the middle class and healthy corporate balance sheets are reasons why southeast Asia is being talked up as the last man standing in an otherwise anaemic global economy.
But Thiam Hee Ng, a senior economist at the Asian Development Bank, has sounded a rare note of caution on the region. He points out four factors that should give the boosters pause. Continue reading »
The world in 2050: western multinationals owned by EM shareholders?
In future, we will all have to work longer and retire later, right? Wrong, according to Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton professor. He says people in developed nations will still be able to stop work early and finance their retirement by selling their wealth to emerging market investors. “By the middle of this century, I expect all multinational companies to be owned by EM,” he says, pointing to a “new deal” between DMs and EMs.
Siegel is best known for the investment strategy laid out in his book, ‘Stocks for the Long Run‘. How did he arrive at his prediction? Continue reading »
Taiwan: boosting babies
Would discounted cab rides for pregnant women and a bonus of N$20,000 ($673) be enough to convince you to have more kids?
Taipei is hoping its citizens will think so. In Taiwan, a birthrate among the world’s lowest means there will eventually be too few workers to support an aged population, prompting the government to try whatever it can to convince its citizens to have more kids. Continue reading »
India the next China – but not before much pain
Anyone familiar with the name of Humayun Shahryar will know he is not a big believer in emerging markets. Take his views on China: “The whole soft-landing/hard-landing thing is a non-argument. China is crash-landing as we speak.”
But the founder and chief executive of Auvest, a Cyprus-based hedge fund, does have faith in his native India, which he reckons is next in line for China-style growth – but only after it’s been through a lot of pain. Continue reading »
Is Shanghai now a developed market?
Beijing hopes that China will one day take its place among the world’s developed nations – but Shanghai has already got there.
Judged by everything from the city’s high prices to its low birth rate and remarkably long life expectancy – a daunting 82.5 years – Shanghai is no third-world country. Continue reading »
Consumer spending – no guarantees
How many modern Indian consumers will there be? A management consultancy report this week forecasts that the country’s consumer spending is set to soar in the next decade, rising from $991m to the tune of $3.6 trillion by 2020.
But economists told beyondbrics that the Boston Consulting Group’s forecast – contained in a report that is bullishly entitled “The Tiger Roars” – could only be achieved if the government actually implements its ambitious reform agenda. And that is far from certain. Continue reading »
Chart of the week: gender inequality and income
Saudi Arabia has been in the news this week as King Abdullah announced that women will finally be allowed to vote – a move celebrated by activists and campaigners. But how does the Kingdom compare on gender equality to other countries?
The chart below plots gender inequality against GDP per capita. Continue reading »
India: staying cool
India’s unrelenting heat presents big opportunities for global air-conditioner manufacturers, but few makers have broken into the mass market. Only 3 per cent of Indian households have air-conditioning units, says Euromonitor, a market research consultancy. That means 97 per cent don’t.
However, this may now be changing with incomes rising, spurring demand for air-conditioning units newly-minted middle class consumers seek ways of coping with the summer. Continue reading »
China and India’s demographics: getting in the way of growth
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is chairing a meeting today to discuss India’s “New Manufacturing Policy”. The meeting is well-timed. With labour shortages across southern China, Western companies are moving clothing and shoes manufacturing to countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh – but India is rarely mentioned.
The reason for this has a lot to do with its demographics, which along with China’s were put under a spotlight last month when both Asian giants released the results of their 2010 censuses. Continue reading »
Taiwan’s baby problem: is the answer on the mainland?
It may not be as serious as Japan’s, but Taiwan’s demographic problem is worsening. Simply put, its 23m citizens are not having enough babies.
Taiwan’s birth rate of 8.9 per 1,000 population puts is among the lowest in the world, just ahead of its neighbours Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Japan. Add a penchant among wealthy Taiwanese parents for sending their children to school in the US, Canada or Australia, plus a growing diaspora of Taiwanese workers and businessmen moving across the Strait, and it is little wonder that Taiwan’s brain drain is fast becoming an issue. Continue reading »
By Ranjit Lall and Robin Wigglesworth
Whether or not it heralds a new era for the country, last week’s ousting of Tunisia’s president Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali has made investors in the Arab world decidedly skittish.
Is there a real risk of unrest breaking out elsewhere in the region? Renaissance Capital thinks so. The Russian investment bank argues that, largely for demographic reasons, countries in North Africa and the Middle East are more susceptible to wars and revolutions than others. Continue reading »
China: people count
An early leak of what the eagerly-awaited 2010 Chinese national census will contain comes with figures showing a population of 23 million people for Shanghai – the Shanghai Daily reported on Tuesday.
That is 14 million permanent residents and a whopping 9 million migrants. The official census results will not be announced until later in the year. But these numbers are already generating calls for extra controls on internal migration. Continue reading »
| About this blog | Headlines email | Blog guide |
| Regulars | Series | Archive |
Older entries
Stefan Wagstyl
Rob Minto
Pan Kwan Yuk
Jonathan Wheatley
Heba Saleh