EPFR

Is this a turning of the tide? After 22 straight weeks of outflows, dedicated EM equity funds recorded inflows of $2.44bn in the week to April 2, equal to 0.3 per cent of assets under management in the sample followed by EPFR, the Boston-based fund flow watcher.

EM bond funds, too, had inflows in the week, of $1.06bn, or 0.5 per cent of AUM, only the second week of inflows out of the past 17.

So does the past week mark a change in sentiment for EM? Not so fast. 

Last week’s foray into positive territory didn’t last long. EM dedicated bond funds saw net outflows in the week to Wednesday according to EPFR, the Boston-based fund monitor, making 18 weeks of outflows out of 19 and reversing four weeks of what looked like improving sentiment towards EM issuers.

Flows to EM equity funds went negative, too, after three weeks of inflows. 

It’s taken 17 weeks, but emerging market bond funds are back in positive territory at last.

Data provider EPFR, which monitors fund flows, shows that for the week ending 25 September, EM bond funds had an inflow of $570m. 

The exodus from emerging markets continued apace with bond and equity funds tracked by EPFR suffering net outflows of $4.4bn in the week to Wednesday.

While the outflows were less than the $5.8bn recorded the week before, it’s hard to put a positive spin on what is essentially another large outflow. 

Blimey. Looks like investors’ exit from emerging markets assets is turning into something of a stampede.

In the week to June 5, investors pulled nearly $7bn out of EM bond and equity funds, as concerns over the future of the Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing programme mount. 

Emerging markets fund managers have seen a big outflow of cash as investors have rushed to take their money out of both bonds and equities in response to the uncertainty in the US about the possible end of QE.

In the week to May 29, EM bond funds saw their first outflow in nearly a year, according to investment bank reports based on data from EPFR, the research company. EM equity funds saw their biggest outflow in over a year. 

The latest weekly figures from EPFR, the Boston-based watcher of global fund flows, give us a snapshot of market sentiment in the days running up to Ben Bernanke’s comments on Wednesday, suggesting an end of quantitative easing could finally be in sight.

They show that investors were feeling relaxed and comfortable, even as rising yields on US Treasuries pushed up yields on emerging market debt and as EM equities remained under pressure. Will that mood last? 

Money flowing into Africa-dedicated equity funds in the final month of last year reached $878.4m, the biggest monthly inflow in just over two years and four times the amount in the previous month, according to data provider EPFR, write Alexandra Stevenson and Andrew Bowman

More evidence of the ebullience engulfing emerging market assets since late 2012: on Tuesday, Ashmore Group, a big EM asset manager, said its assets under management had increased by $3bn to $71bn as of December 31, made up of $2bn accounted for by “positive investment performance” and $1bn of net inflows.

Ashmore did best out of EM debt, especially the local currency variety. But the EM rally has extended to equities, too. The Shanghai Composite was up 0.6 per cent on Tuesday, for example, bringing its rally since December 4 to 18.9 per cent. In Shenzhen, gains since December 4 have reached 27.4 per cent. 

Signs of nervousness in the world of EM-dedicated funds, with flows to bond funds and equities funds both slowing down in the week to Wednesday, according to data supplied to banks by EPFR, the Boston-based fund watcher. 

A fascinating week for followers of fund flows, with both bonds and equities showing signs of a renewed taste for EM risk against the backdrop of the US presidential election. 

Portfolio investors’ 2012 advance into emerging markets goes on. Data from EPFR, the funds research company, provided to banks indicate that in the seven days to Wednesday, EM bond funds recorded an overall inflow for the 21st week in succession. EM equities posted an inflow for the eighth week in a row.

With the developed world’s central banks pouring easy money into the market, the global financial tide shows little sign of turning. 

For a world supposedly in the grip of crisis and uncertainty, it has been a remarkable run for EM dedicated funds. In the week to October 17, EM bond funds had their 19th straight week of inflows according to EPFR, the fund flow monitor – indeed, of the past 40 weeks, only three saw outflows, bunched together in late May and early June when the Greek crisis was at its scariest.

Equities, as ever, have been more volatile but the year-to-date tally is also strongly positive. In the sample monitored by EPFR – about a sixth of the total, analysts reckon – EM dedicated equity funds have taken in $25.2bn and bond funds, $29.5bn.

Koon Chow at Barclays reckons the flows will keep coming – for a while. Here’s why. 

No end in sight to the money flowing into emerging market funds, bond funds in particular.

Boosted by QE3 and bouyed by hopes of some stability, if not calm, returning to markets, fund managers have reported net inflows into both bonds and equities for the fifth week in a row. 

Another solid week of flows to emerging market funds, with bond flows looking respectable for the fourth straight week despite a gradual slowdown, and more volatile equity flows still looking buoyant.

The QE rally seems to be intact, for now.