A report to be released by the Institute of International Finance on Wednesday will make sobering reading for EM investors: estimated portfolio flows to EM assets fell sharply in August to just $9bn, after a monthly average of $38bn between May and July.
August is always a slow month but this year it has been notably sluggish. EM bond issuance, for example, was just $22bn this month from a monthly average of $62bn over the past year and $44bn in August 2013, the IIF said. Continue reading »
It may be early to call the end of the EM rally of the past couple of months but the latest EM portfolio flows tracker from the Institute of International Finances adds to a feeling that it is losing some of its puff.
The IIF says portfolio flows to EMs moderated in April to $25bn, after surging to $38bn in March from $17bn in February. Continue reading »
Is this a turning of the tide? After 22 straight weeks of outflows, dedicated EM equity funds recorded inflows of $2.44bn in the week to April 2, equal to 0.3 per cent of assets under management in the sample followed by EPFR, the Boston-based fund flow watcher.
EM bond funds, too, had inflows in the week, of $1.06bn, or 0.5 per cent of AUM, only the second week of inflows out of the past 17.
So does the past week mark a change in sentiment for EM? Not so fast. Continue reading »
Now that’s what you call a change in sentiment. Outflows from emerging market equity funds so far this year have already eclipsed net sales from all of 2013.
Outflows from EM equity funds in the week to Feb 5 were a whopping $6.4bn, after a $6.3bn outflow in the week before, according to data from EPFR and distributed by Barclays. Continue reading »
As soon as Ben Bernanke mentioned in late may that the Federal Reserve could soon begin to scale back its bond-buying programmed, hell broke loose in emerging markets.
Stock prices declined, currencies fell and interest rates on sovereign or corporate bonds shot up. For many investors, Bernanke’s comments on May 22 in testimony before the US Congress meant that the easy flows of money that had landed in emerging economies would not only end soon, but worse — would be reversed.
As a result, many financial markets in emerging economies began experiencing some “withdrawal symptoms” even before the Fed had acted.
Press forward. By September, the Fed hadn’t touched its bond-buying programme and suggested instead that it wouldn’t any time soon. Most economists and fund managers by then had figured that the famous tapering would not take place until at least December. Continue reading »
Last week’s foray into positive territory didn’t last long. EM dedicated bond funds saw net outflows in the week to Wednesday according to EPFR, the Boston-based fund monitor, making 18 weeks of outflows out of 19 and reversing four weeks of what looked like improving sentiment towards EM issuers.
Flows to EM equity funds went negative, too, after three weeks of inflows. Continue reading »
It’s taken 17 weeks, but emerging market bond funds are back in positive territory at last.
Data provider EPFR, which monitors fund flows, shows that for the week ending 25 September, EM bond funds had an inflow of $570m. Continue reading »
The exodus from emerging markets continued apace with bond and equity funds tracked by EPFR suffering net outflows of $4.4bn in the week to Wednesday.
While the outflows were less than the $5.8bn recorded the week before, it’s hard to put a positive spin on what is essentially another large outflow. Continue reading »
After the worst-ever weekly outflow for emerging market bond funds, with $5.6bn draining away, fund managers have rightly been worried about what the latest figures would show.
As it happens, investors have regained some of their nerve: in the week to July 3, EM bond funds suffered a much smaller $960m of outflows, according to bankers citing data from EPFR, the research company. Continue reading »
What’s that whooshing sound? Something like five-and-a-half billion dollars draining out of emerging market bond funds, that’s what.
According to data from EPFR Global, the fund flow data provider, EM bonds just had their worst week on record. This chart says it all: Continue reading »
The US Federal Reserve signalled the coming end of QE only a month ago, but forecasters are already producing long-term forecasts of the possible impact on emerging markets of the expected cut in easy money.
That’s brave, given the amount of noise in the market. On Wednesday, the Institute of International Finance, the banker’s club, pitched in with a report predicting a drop in net private capital flows to EMs over the next 18 months to the lowest level since 2009. That sounds bad, given that 2009 was a grim year. But the IIF’s numbers are a bit less gloomy than its top line. Continue reading »
Investors seem to be taking a breather in the emerging markets sell-off. On Friday, Asian currencies were mostly stable against the dollar and equities were only marginally down, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index down 0.7 per cent.
But the mood was anything but calm: there are widespread concerns that the aftershocks of the US Federal Reserve’s move on ending QE may have further to go. A lot of information has still to come out into the open – not least which investors are staring at overwhelming losses. Continue reading »
Don’t panic, says Deutsche Bank, about the emerging markets sell-off. Once the dust has settled, investors will see that most emerging markets are in better shape for a post-QE world than most developed markets because debt levels are lower.
But, as Deutsche admits, it could be a while before the dust settles. And even after it settles, EMs with big external deficits (eg Turkey) or with big recent credit growth (south east Asia) may be under pressure. Continue reading »
Blimey. Looks like investors’ exit from emerging markets assets is turning into something of a stampede.
In the week to June 5, investors pulled nearly $7bn out of EM bond and equity funds, as concerns over the future of the Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing programme mount. Continue reading »
Emerging markets fund managers have seen a big outflow of cash as investors have rushed to take their money out of both bonds and equities in response to the uncertainty in the US about the possible end of QE.
In the week to May 29, EM bond funds saw their first outflow in nearly a year, according to investment bank reports based on data from EPFR, the research company. EM equity funds saw their biggest outflow in over a year. Continue reading »