global economy

Anyone reading the IMF’s latest update to its World Economic Outlook might come away worried about a repeat of the emerging market ructions in 2013 over the US scaling back its asset buying programme (aka tapering).

The Fund says that the world economy is “Not yet out of the woods”, and suggests that, for EMs, once the US Federal Reserve starts tapering in 2014, “portfolio shifts and some capital outflows are likely.” 

The Bank of Korea held rates steady on Thursday at 2.5 per cent – the third hold in a row. So far, all as expected.

But the statement from the bank was a fair bit more optimistic than in previous monetary policy minutes. So what’s the good news? 

Exports between leading emerging markets will drive global growth in the coming decades, transforming international trade flows, according to a report published on Wednesday, writes Claire Jones.

The report, compiled by HSBC and Oxford Economics, predicts that intra-emerging market trade is set to grow rapidly in the years to 2030 as these economies grow wealthier and domestic demand rises. 

Little surprise that the International Monetary Fund cut its world economic growth predictions in its latest forecasts published on Wednesday, with only three major economies escaping the chop – Japan, Mexico and China.

The forecast for China’s GDP is left unchanged at 8.1 per cent, the same as the last (October) forecast, which shows that the Fund shares the growing optimism in China’s 2013 recovery. 

That trade is a route to prosperity is not a new idea. But trade with whom? For African countries, the answer is close to home: each other.

Leaders at the African Union summit at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, have argued the case for intra-African trade as a key driver of economic growth. Fair enough. But how can Africa make it happen? 

The IMF World Economic Outlook update released on Tuesday makes pretty ugly reading, as Chris Giles reports in the FT, with world economic growth set to be significantly weaker than previously thought.

But what specifically does it mean for emerging markets? Here are 10 things we have learnt from the IMF report

Taiwan’s exports have been slowing for months but with the US economy showing signs of recovery recently and better-than-expected Christmas holiday sales for the tech sector, some people have started looking forward to a turnaround later this year.

Not so Hon Hai’s Terry Gou, who warned on Monday that the world faces a global economic downturn worse than the 2008/2009 financial crisis. 

It’s another milestone – an emerging economy overtakes a developed one in terms of GDP.

Earlier this year it was China overtaking Japan. This time, Brazil has moved ahead of the UK as the 6th biggest economy in the world. The question is: who’s next? And does it matter? 

Like all good boys and girls, the readers of beyondbrics deserve their Christmas presents. So here for our loyal followers – and for those dipping into the site for the first time – is a seasonal gift from Nobel prize-winning economist Amartya Sen.

For those taking a break, it is something to savour over the holidays. For those tied to their desks, it is something for a quiet moment. Best wishes from all at beyondbrics. 

In October, India’s once-robust industrial output contracted by 5.1 per cent from the same month a year earlier – further proof that the economy was slowing – and down from 1.9 per cent in September, according to data released Monday by the Central Statistics Office.

Last month, economists told beyondbrics that 1.9 per cent growth – the slowest pace in two years – fell well below expectations, and bolstered the case for a pause in monetary tightening that has seen the hawkish Reserve Bank of India increase repo rates 13 times since March 2010. Monday’s numbers would seem only to further strengthen that case.

By Luis de la Calle

The absence of any real progress at the recent G20 summit is a wake-up call to policy makers. They should jettison the sprawling agenda that has come to typify the group and focus exclusively on one goal: to defend and deepen globalisation.

That is not an easy or necessarily popular endeavour. Economic adjustment has helped produce a chorus of voices against open markets as western democracies go through painful and protracted adjustment programmes, and at great social cost. But the answer to the world’s problems is more globalisation, not less. 

As the eurozone crisis spreads from Greece to Italy, countries far afield are being sucked into the maelstorm. The world’s emerging markets, which led the way out of global recession in 2009, are now suffering because of their ties to the Old Continent. And they may not be as well placed as three years ago to again help pull the world back from the brink.

Follow the link below for the full story, and a video analysis with Stefan Wagstyl, beyondbrics editor, and John Authers, editor of Lex.