Egypt-IMF: more trouble
Egypt and the IMF have repeatedly failed to reach agreement over a $4.8bn loan over the last 18 months. But the consensus among analysts, echoed by Egypt and the IMF, has been that, sooner or later, a deal will be done.
But recent developments have cast a very different light on the on-off negotiations. It’s time to ask: could Egypt get by without the IMF? Continue reading »
Guest post: pardon of political prisoners opens door to renewed Ukraine-EU dialogue
By Jamie Scudder of Maplecroft
The European Parliament’s decision on April 18 to extend its monitoring mission to Ukraine is a crucial step for the country in the context of its European aspirations. The mission, which has acted as an informal platform to promote dialogue between the European Union and Ukraine, was one factor behind the government’s decision a week earlier to pardon a number of former opposition politicians. They include former ministers for the interior and the environment, Yuri Lutsenko and HeorhyFilichuk, and four others convicted of corruption. The pardons create renewed hope for stronger trade relations between Ukraine and the EU and have already defused tensions between Kiev and the 27-member bloc. Continue reading »
With global growth slowing again, the International Monetary Fund has revisited an old question – are Asia’s middle-income economies stuck in a middle-income trap?
The arguments predate the global financial crisis, but are given fresh urgency by the crisis-induced deceleration in growth. According to the IMF, there’s bad news and good news. The bad news is that some emerging Asian economies do indeed face significant risks of a “sustained slowdown”. But the good news is that they are less vulnerable than emerging economies in other parts of the world – and that given the right policy choices, they can try to avoid stagnation. Continue reading »
IMF agenda: Tunisia done, Egypt TBC
For Tunisia, the deal is done. But as far as the bigger, trickier north African question goes, there are merely encouraging words.
On Saturday, the IMF concluded terms with the Tunisian government on a crucial loan. Meanwhile for Egypt, while talks continue in Washington on the sidelines of the IMF spring meeting, no news is a worry. Continue reading »
Belarus: cash needed fast, but where from?
We need more than that
Belarus is in a tight spot. The country has reached a peak in foreign government debt repayments and it needs $3.1bn to repay its earlier loans and sovereign eurobonds. This is a substantial amount of cash, taking into account that as of April 1, the country’s international reserve assets stood at just $8.1bn.
So what are the options? Continue reading »
Chartbook: a picture of emerging markets from the IMF
Recent editions of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook have made pretty gloomy reading for developed economies, with growth forecasts trimmed and few recovery prospects.
But despite the global headwinds, emerging markets are still getting a positive writeup from the Fund’s economists. Here are the charts that tell the story. Continue reading »
IMF / Egypt: reading the signals
As beyondbrics reported on Monday, Egypt’s talks with the IMF over a possible $4.8bn loan have faltered, again.
So what does this mean for the country? And will deal with the Fund ever materialise? Continue reading »
IMF in Egypt and Tunisia: win some, lose some
A mixed bag for the IMF in north Africa in April, if early reports are anything to go by.
Egypt’s talks with the Fund over a $4.8bn (plus) deal have floundered – again. But there is better news 2,000km to the west, where Tunisia looks to have sealed a $1.78bn loan. Continue reading »
Russia’s helping hand to Serbia: not much help
A $500m Russian loan to Serbia may provide a brief fillip to the Serbian economy but it won’t be a substitute for a long-awaited deal with the International Monetary Fund. The loan came as Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev underlined Moscow’s support for Serbia over the issue of Kosovo — and as European Union-brokered talks on the disputed territory stalled, putting Serbia’s EU accession process in question. Continue reading »
Egypt/Tunisia: IMF crunch time
April looks set to be a busy time for the IMF. Two crucial meetings have been put in the diary – one with Tunisia, and one with Egypt (again).
The two potential deals have a lot at stake, and not just in monetary terms. Tunisia’s possible $1.7bn loan will help shield the country from the European downturn. Egypt’s on-off $4.8bn loan is even more important, as it should unlock other sources of funding, and avert what could become a complete collapse of the economy. Continue reading »
Chart of the week: Brazil’s bottlenecks
Several reasons have been given for Brazil’s economic slowdown: a self-inflicted sudden stop caused by capital controls; currency appreciation, making exports more expensive; and falling demand for commodities, especially from China.
But if Brazil really wants to hold onto its position as a leading emerging market, it must address structural problems, starting with infrastructure and education. And as Chart of the Week shows, it has a lot of ground to make up. Continue reading »
Ukraine: record snows hit economic recovery hopes
It’s not a pretty picture on the ground in Kiev.
The Ukrainian capital is still crawling out from under a record weekend snowfall that has muddied streets, paralysed traffic and upset basic services including rubbish collection.
It will do nothing to prevent the economy falling into recession in the first quarter of 2013, after GDP growth of 0.2 per cent in 2012. But it does increase the urgency for Kiev to find external economic support, if not from Russia, then from the International Monetary Fund, which had a delegation arrive in town on Wednesday. Continue reading »
Matolcsy: Hungary’s finance minister, conspiracy theorist, and central banker?
Hungary’s next central bank governor is expected to be named on Friday and György Matolcsy, finance minister, is the most hotly-tipped candidate. So Matolcsy’s weekly newspaper column on economics, society and culture attracted more than the usual amount of interest on Thursday when he used it to accuse foreign businesses and banks of orchestrating attacks on Hungary and to assert that a planned loan agreement with the IMF and EU would have destabilised the government and led Hungary into default. Continue reading »
Croatia likely to be in recession as it joins the EU this year
This might have been a triumphant year for Croatia. Less than a decade and half after its war of independence, the country will join the EU in July, symbolically returning to the mainstream European fold after decades of authoritarianism and conflict.
But 2013 could well be yet another year in recession for the troubled Croatian economy. A flash estimate published on Thursday suggested that GDP had shrunk 2.0 per cent in the full year 2012 – and prompting forecasts of a grim 2013. Continue reading »
Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s Islamist president, has called parliamentary elections to start on April 27 and to be held over four stages, culminating in late June.
Mr Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood group are hoping the poll will help restore stability and arrest economic deterioration in a turbulent country rocked by protests and periodic violence. Continue reading »
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