India economy

It’s all kicking off in Indian ecommerce. Flipkart, an ecommerce website founded by two former Amazon employees, raised $1bn in equity this week. Amazon itself quickly followed, with an announcement on Wednesday that it was investing a further $2bn in the country.

As competition becomes fierce at the top of the market, beyondbrics went to Bangalore to meet senior executives from Myntra, the fashion retailer that Flipkart acquired this year. Continue reading »

As Narendra Modi, India’s new prime minister, gets his feet under his desk in New Delhi, it seems everyone is optimistic about the country’s prospects. That includes Ravneet Gill, chief executive of Deutsche Bank in India.

Modi won this year’s election with a powerful majority, having promised to restart India’s manufacturing sector, to get investment going by cutting red tape, and to improve the country’s crumbling infrastructure. Gill says all this will help India’s struggling banking sector – but running a bank in the country still isn’t an easy job. Continue reading »

Jimmy Choos under your sari and an African safari for the Diwali long weekend?

A new report by Kotak Wealth Management and Ernst & Young – Top of the Pyramid 2014 – finds that India’s super rich are “ready for change” as a strong new government comes to power in New Delhi – and they’re spending to prove it.

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As the monsoon rains lash down on the streets of Mumbai, traffic has slowed to a crawl. Just last week, India’s trademark black and yellow taxis would speed down Marine Drive, the city’s seaside boulevard, but now the road is clogged as a jumble of jalopies and private cars trundle past potholes brimming with water.

Just the opposite is true of India’s car market: sales have started to accelerate. In the month of June, total car sales jumped 14.76 per cent year-on-year to 160,232 units, according to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) published earlier this month.

While the evidence is too fragmented to make a compelling case for a sustainable upturn in car sales, some analysts are optimistic. The thumping triumph of Narendra Modi, prime minister, in May’s national election – which has also sparked an impressive stock market rally – may be helping to infuse consumers with a sense of wellbeing, analysts said. Continue reading »

By Nishesh Dalal, KPMG India

With the new Indian leadership focused on accelerating economic growth and with business confidence at a high, some of niche industries are set to receive the much needed impetus to propel growth. One such industrial segment that is gradually enhancing its growth potential is the huge but relatively unheralded dairy sector.

India is the world’s largest milk producer in the world, accounting for over 17 per cent of total production. The Indian dairy market is estimated to be worth $10bn in annual sales, employs over 90m people and provides an important source of nutrition. Continue reading »

If you’re an emerging market and there’s a geoeconomic grouping you’re looking for, you’ve got a few to choose from. In Asia there is Asean - ten countries in search of common ground. In Latin America there is Mercosur - five countries in search of common tariffs. And from the Atlantic west to the Black Sea there is Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation – four adjectives in search of a noun.

But none of these has the distinction of having been a marketing campaign by Goldman Sachs got out of control. The Brics nations, apparently noticing a small clearing in the densely-thicketed field of international relations, seized on the designation to set up their own diplomatic process. The sixth leaders’ summit will take place next week in Fortaleza, Brazil, with the host nation hopefully performing better than at its other major international gathering.

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By Sanjeev Prasad, Kotak Institutional Equities

India’s budget – to be unveiled on Thursday – is seen as potentially the most revealing indication so far of the priorities and policies of the new administration of Narendra Modi, the prime minister.

There are high expectations among citizens, industry and investors on what the new budget for the 2015 financial year – which started in March this year – will hold. However, in the short term it may be pragmatism rather than vision that wins the day, given India’s weak fiscal position and economic growth.

Looking toward the medium term, policy announcements in several areas including fiscal consolidation, housing, inflation management and investment (including foreign direct investment and manufacturing) are more likely

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By Sunil Sanghai of HSBC

The days of hot and smart money are over. An increasing number of long-term foreign investors are betting heavily on a bright future for India. They were already doing so before the decisive election result in May and we expect this momentum to grow and grow.

Around this time last year, India’s economy seemed to be in a state of flux. The rupee was at an all-time low, inflation was stubbornly high and the equity market was shackled. Foreign institutional investors often looked confused, sucking hot money out of the markets one day only to pour it back the next. Continue reading »

Many Indian customs are surprising to outsiders – standing to sing the national anthem before any screening at any cinema, for example, or the halwa ceremony that precedes the unveiling of the national budget. The gelatinous, ghee-based dessert was prepared in New Delhi and distributed this week among government employees who have begun printing the most significant document of India’s economic year and will be isolated from their families and other outsiders until it is unveiled on July 10. A little ‘sweet dish’ is the least the government can offer the 100 officials involved in putting the budget together.

That may, however, be one of the only sugary sweet elements in the government’s first budget since Narendra Modi, India’s new prime minister, was voted in with a strong mandate – leaving him with no excuse not to fulfil his campaign promises of reviving growth and embarking on fiscal consolidation. Continue reading »

Two out of the four BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China face severe labour shortages as soon as 2020.

“Many emerging markets are reaching the final phase of their demographic peak,” say the authors of a report by Boston Consulting Group which quantifies the extent of potential labour shortages and surpluses globally over the next 16 years.

The danger of a declining work force is well recognised in China, which is already suffering the impact of the one-child-per-family policy, in effect since 1979. BCG estimates that China’s surplus of about 65m workers in 2020 could turn into a shortage of up to 24.5m people by 2030. Recent proposals to ease the one-child policy, if implemented, would have only a limited impact, since children born now would not enter the workforce until after 2030. Continue reading »

At the Bharat Forge factory in Pune, vast hangars are filled with huge machines heating and shaping metal. But there are very few workers around – perhaps a good thing given the sweltering heat.

A population of over 1.2bn supposedly gives India a ‘demographic dividend’ but at the country’s biggest manufacturer and exporter of automotive components, the talk is of a shift to high tech manufacturing rather than labour intensive processes. Continue reading »

By Michael Power of Investec Asset Management

MSCI has moved in mysterious ways, its wonders to perform… and again left Chinese stocks out of its global benchmark indices. At the same time, we learn that, after three years in index limbo, it will not add South Korea and Taiwan to the family of developed markets. These decisions have happened despite the fact that all three nations are among the world’s top 25 economies: China at number 2, Korea at 15 and Taiwan at 25. Continue reading »