Maruti Suzuki led a two-track recovery in India’s car industry last year, dragging up overall sales while local competitors such as Tata Motors floundered. But new figures out on Tuesday have disappointed analysts in the festive period.
The 32 year-old brand, with a reputation for churning out reliable and affordable cars, posted net profits of Rs8.02bn ($131m) in the quarter ended December, up 18 per cent year-on-year. That’s well below an average forecast for profits of Rs9.06bn in a poll by Thomson Reuters. Read more
By Vikas Pota, Varkey Foundation
By 2030, the economies of India and China together may contribute 65 per cent of global GDP and be home to the majority of the world’s working age population. India alone will possess the world’s biggest pool of potential employees.
But the giddy predictions of future growth seem more fragile when it is considered that this potential labour force is dependent on education systems that often fail to teach basic skills.
India has the largest number of illiterate adults of any country globally. Teacher absenteeism is the third highest in the world, and many teachers lack basic training. Some 12.8m young Indians enter the work force each year and, without adequate skills, will often struggle to find employment. Shanghai leads the rankings done by Pisa, the Programme for International Student Assessment, and has become a poster-child for education ministries around the word. But in rural China, many students still do not finish secondary school. Read more
By Frederic Neumann, HSBC
Things in China look a bit soggy. True, growth a touch above 7 per cent is nothing to sneer at. But it’s down sharply from days past. And as the Mainland matures, those double-digit growth rates seem even less likely to return. Where, then, to look for the next story of hyper-charged growth?
Plenty of promising places around: Sri Lanka will probably grow faster than China this year, and so could the Philippines, Vietnam and Bangladesh at some point. But, from a global perspective, these will hardly make a dent; certainly, commodity markets will not get terribly excited about accelerating demand from these markets. Read more
A jump in gold imports to India since the scrapping of quantitative restrictions last November is fuelling questions over whether New Delhi may see fit to reimpose curbs to prevent the country’s current account deficit from ballooning again to risky proportions. Read more
Last year in India was remarkable not only for the resurgence in economic dynamism that followed the election of Narendra Modi, the prime minister. New data shows it was also a banner year for mergers and acquisitions.
In the calendar year to December 30, India saw deals worth $48.4bn, according to Dealogic, marking the highest value since 2010. Inbound deals were valued at $16.5bn, their highest level since 2011. Read more
By Saurabh Mukherjea of Ambit Capital
As I finish my two-week year-end trip to meet our western clients (around 40 of them), it is obvious that enthusiasm regarding investing in India is at record highs. Over the past fortnight, I have met at least 10 western-hemisphere-based funds that have either just started investing in India or have applied to the Indian securities regulator for Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) status (which allows them to access the Indian stockmarket directly). Even more interestingly, half a dozen of the clients I met have moved to larger, better-appointed offices in money centres like London, New York, Zurich and San Francisco. Read more
By Shumita Sharma Deveshwar of Trusted Sources
The Indian government’s sale of a 5 per cent stake in the Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) was meant to serve as a gauge of investor sentiment towards public sector stocks before the bigger sell-offs of shares in Coal India and the ONGC oil & gas group. But it has left some doubts about the potential success of the record disinvestment programme and the consequent reduction of the fiscal deficit. Read more
By Amit Bhandari, Gateway House
Petroleum prices touched a new four -year low of $72.5 per barrel after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided last week against reducing production . The 35 per cent price drop is a huge relief for India, where petroleum products comprise a third of the import bill. Cheaper oil means narrower current account and fiscal deficits, and reduced prices at the pump for consumers shopping for food-grains, vegetables, cement and steel.
Can this happy situation last? Will 2015 be the year in which high oil prices do not disadvantage India? Judging by history, it may be.
Before oil prices began to rise in 2003, a 20-year run of price stability fuelled global growth. But cheap oil killed off investments in exploration and production. OPEC gained market share, from 30 per cent of global production in 1983 to over 40 per cent by the end of 1990s. Read more
Economists and investors have turned optimistic about the Indian economy since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took over in New Delhi this May.
Sweeping to victory with a strong majority, the new Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) administration is expected to roll out a series of policy reforms that will kick start growth in Asia’s third largest economy. But has this triggered a boom in the Indian consumer sector too? Read more
“We are waiting for you!” Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told potential investors this week at the India Economic Summit in New Delhi. But the response among delegates in the conference hall may not have been the one he was hoping for.
“We are waiting for him too,” said one foreign investor, who declined to be identified, expressing impatience with the pace of reforms to make India more business-friendly. Some local industrialists struck a similar note: Anand Mahindra, chairman of Mahindra & Mahindra, one of the largest industrial groups in India, couldn’t hide his anticipation: “The pressure is on [the government] to walk the talk, and see the talk become action.” Read more
International air travelers will recognise the tag line from the HSBC campaign in airports worldwide: “In the future, South-South trade will become norm, not novelty”. If it depends on the Mahindra group and other Indian conglomerates, that tag line could become reality with regards to Africa and India.
Taking optimism to a new level, a collection of African leaders and Indian industrialists dared to dream big during a closed session of the WEF India Economic Summit in Delhi, agreeing to an informal ambition of $500bn Indo-African trade by 2020. Read more
The FT flagged recent concerns around the Indian car industry. Sales had picked up for four consecutive months after the new pro-business government came to power this May – but that run of growth is now ending.
Beyond domestic sales, the recent drop in exports from India is another key trend in the Indian automotive industry and the reasons for the fall are often misunderstood. Read more
By Freha Amjad
If you are looking to ride a career helicopter into the rarefied echelons of those who earn more than $250,000 a year – then consider becoming an expat working in Asia.
Such a course is suggested by the findings of the latest HSBC Expat Explorer report, which is based on a YouGov survey of 9,288 expats worldwide. Asia is home to the highest earning expats, who are almost three times more likely to earn over $250,000 a year than their counterparts in Europe. Read more
On Friday Indian companies will begin posting their results for the quarter ended in September – the first full three-month period under the country’s new, pro-business government.
The latest macroeconomic indicators suggest the economy has picked up following this year’s general election, growing at 5.7 per cent in the three months to June. But if analyst forecasts are anything to go by, only some sectors have received a boost from renewed optimism in India. Read more
Investors have been awaiting an upturn in India’s economy since Narendra Modi, prime minister, took power in May. But a raft of recent data paints a mixed picture, with inflation moderating while slack industrial production conflicts with some robust consumer spending signals.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), out on Monday, confirmed that inflation is easing, reaching a 58-month low of 3.74 per cent year-on-year in August from 5.19 per cent in July. Read more
Until about a decade ago India was barely producing enough cotton to meet its own needs, let alone export the stuff. But this year Asia’s third largest economy will overtake China to become the world’s biggest producer of cotton.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture released on Thursday suggests that India will produce 30m bales of cotton in the season that began August 1 while China will produce just 29.5m bales. Read more
Since April car sales in India have been improving as consumer sentiment picks up following this year’s general election – and August saw the biggest year-on-year jump in this upturn as festival season neared.
Sales of passenger cars were up 15.2 per cent year-on-year in August to 153,758 units, according to data published on Wednesday by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam), a trade body. Read more
Import restrictions and the rival appeal of equities have put a damper on India’s gold market, traditionally the world’s biggest. As festival season gets under way and Indians indulge their craving for the yellow metal, many are wondering when New Delhi and the Reserve Bank of India will begin rolling back their efforts to keep the market in check.
Officials are particularly concerned about the effect of gold imports on India’s troublesome current account deficit. One way round that problem would be to encourage more recycling of gold already in India. It could also be an enticing business proposition. Read more
India emerges from the latest World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report as the sickest member of the BRICs. It is ranked a lackluster 71st among 144 countries surveyed, down 11 places from last year and 22 places from five years ago. Moreover, it is ranked the lowest among its peers for the first time in years (China comes in 28th, Russia 53th, Brazil 57th).
The consequences of India’s lower GDP growth are also increasingly obvious: whereas India’s GDP per capita was higher than China’s only 15 years ago, it now stands at only a quarter of that of its Eastern neighbor.
So how come this all happened, and what can be done about it? Read more
Remember that story back in June, when the Indian government blocked a couple of foreign sources of funding for Greenpeace India?
It looks like the courts may not let New Delhi withhold the international transfers. On Wednesday, the Delhi High Court ordered that the blocked funds should be shifted from accounts with the central bank to Greenpeace’s accounts and placed in a fixed deposit until October 10, when a final verdict will be announced. Read more