[brief]: surprise drop in India inflation
India’s annual wholesale price inflation rate dropped to 4.89 per cent in April, a 41-month low.
It was sharply down on the 5.96 per cent recorded in March and well below expectations, with an average forecast of 5.5 per cent in a Reuters poll of analysts. Continue reading »
[snap]: Indian industrial output up, but underlying growth weak
India’s industrial production grew 2.5 per cent year-on-year this March, against an average forecast of 2.4 per cent in a Bloomberg poll.
The data follows growth of 0.5 per cent in the month of February, a figure that was revised downwards from 0.6 per cent, and comes after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has slashed interest rates three times since the beginning of 2013. Continue reading »
India real estate: can FDI save the day?
Investment in India’s real estate sector is falling fast – yet another bit of bad news for the economy.
In the fiscal year just ended, new investment into real estate was down 55 per cent from Rs926bn to Rs420bn (from $18bn to $8bn) according to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham). Continue reading »
[snap] India cuts rates
The Reserve Bank of India has cut its repo lending rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 per cent, in line with expectation.
But in a surprisingly hawkish move, it warned that room for further reductions was “very limited”.
India: M-Pesa is rolled out – at last
M-Pesa, the mobile money transfer tool set up in Kenya back in 2007, has now launched in large areas of India.
Vodafone India, which has some 150m customers around the country, has teamed up with ICICI Bank to roll out M-Pesa in India via its subsidiary Mobile Commerce Solutions . The scheme has been piloted in Rajasthan since 2011 but with a national launch this week, service begins in eastern parts of the country. Continue reading »
India trade gap smallest in two years
It may not be a surplus, but it’s some positive economic news for India: the trade deficit has narrowed again.
Data published by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry show that the trade gap declined to two-year low of $10.3bn in March – compare that with the deficit of $14.9bn in February and $13.5bn in March 2012. Continue reading »
What does the big drop in the gold price mean for India?
For a poor country, India has expensive taste.
It is the world’s biggest importer of gold – a pricey habit that has taken its toll on the country’s current account deficit. So is the recent tumble in the gold price just what India’s economy needs? Continue reading »
India: factory output increase less positive than it seems
India’s industrial production data for the month of February has come in higher than expected. Industrial production rose 0.6 per cent year-on-year – a sharp contrast with analysts’ forecasts of a 0.7 per cent decline.
Looks like good news for an economy struggling to generate growth. But the headline figure doesn’t tell the whole story: it’s boosted by the volatile capital goods segment, which expanded 9.5 per cent. Basic goods output fell by 1.8 per cent, and intermediate goods production by 0.7 per cent. Continue reading »
Guest post: foreign chains must beware of the risks in Indian retail
Reshmi Khurana, Head of India for Kroll Advisory Solutions
The Indian government’s decision to allow greater freedom for foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail has paved the way for major foreign retailers to expand into this vast consumer market.
But foreign companies should take care. Even though New Delhi has lifted the legal barrier, it has not done so completely. Also, serious commercial, regulatory and political barriers remain in place. This will be tricky ground for years to come. Continue reading »
Indian car forecasts: pie in the sky?
SIAM got it completely wrong last year. So, do we believe them this time round?
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers announced on Wednesday that in the fiscal year that just ended, for the first time in a decade, car sales in India shrank.
The society began the year predicting double-digit growth and slashed that figure repeatedly through the year. With that in mind, what do we make of their forecast for a 3-5 per cent expansion in the current fiscal year? Continue reading »
India’s current account gap goes from bad to worse
India’s current account deficit was expected to be big in the last quarter of 2012. But not this big.
The Reserve Bank of India said on Thursday the deficit reached $32.6bn in the third quarter of the fiscal year, equal to 6.7 per cent of GDP – a record. That’s up significantly from 5.4 per cent of GDP in the previous quarter and 4.4 per cent in the same quarter a year earlier. Continue reading »
Chinese celebrate India’s Holi
On Wednesday, the streets of India will be filled with men and women, boys and girls, flinging multi-coloured powder and water over one another as they celebrate the beginning of spring. The festival of Holi will end with stained carpets and hot baths, as people return home to spend time with loved ones – and probably drink bhang, a traditional brew brimming with cannabis.
It is a distinctively Indian sort of mayhem. Doesn’t sound like something the straight-laced Chinese could get involved with, does it? It is, though. Continue reading »
India: growing gains from internet-based economy – McKinsey
Already the third-largest online user base in the world, India has the potential to double its economic contribution from the internet in the next three years.
India could see a surge in the internet’s role in the economy from 1.6 per cent of the country’s GDP in 2011, to up to 3.3 per cent in 2015, putting it near developed countries on this measure, according to a McKinsey report. Continue reading »
[brief] India cuts interest rate 25bp
The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo lending rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday to 7.5 per cent a year, meeting analyst expectations.
The cut follows a 25 basis point reduction in the rate in January, the first since April 2012. Though analysts have been forecasting further cuts in the coming months, the RBI has said there is limited room for further action. Continue reading »
The job: entry-level banker at State Bank of India. Applicants: 1.7 million
You thought you did well getting your job, batting away stiff competition in the midst of a global recession? Get some perspective.
The State Bank of India (SBI) has received 1.7m applications for 1,500 entry-level bank positions – that’s more than 1,100 people per place. Continue reading »
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