India inflation in July came in well below expectations, according to data released Tuesday, but economists said the 6.87 per cent figure – down from 7.25 per cent last month – is unlikely to move the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates at its next meeting on September 17.

Provisional export data, also released on Tuesday, showed a 14.8 per cent fall in July exports, to $22.4bn, and a 7.61 per cent fall in imports, to $37.9bn, producing a $15.5bn trade deficit. Continue reading »

It’s better than expected, but that doesn’t mean it’s good enough – that was the consensus reaction to the Monday release of data that showed that India’s headline inflation fell to a 5-month low of 7.25 per cent in June, down from 7.55 per cent in May.

The headline figure does not look low enough to allow the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates at its meeting on July 31 – as many business people have been demanding. And in any case, for statistical reasons, the number might have to be revised up. Continue reading »