Tag: India interest rates

Ratings agency S&P has warned that the chances of India’s sovereign credit being downgraded to junk is more than one in three, as the economy battles with unsustainable current account and fiscal deficits.

But foreign institutional investors (FIIs) see reasons for cheer as growing inflows send Indian equity markets soaring. On Monday, India’s benchmark Nifty index surged 31 points to 6,229.45, its highest since November 2010. The Sensex too gained 163 points to 20,443.62, its highest since January 2011. Both indices have gained in every session in the past week. What’s going on? And will this rally last? Continue reading »

India’s annual wholesale price inflation rate dropped to 4.89 per cent in April, a 41-month low.

It was sharply down on the 5.96 per cent recorded in March and well below expectations, with an average forecast of 5.5 per cent in a Reuters poll of analysts. Continue reading »

India’s industrial production grew 2.5 per cent year-on-year this March, against an average forecast of 2.4 per cent in a Bloomberg poll.

The data follows growth of 0.5 per cent in the month of February, a figure that was revised downwards from 0.6 per cent, and comes after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has slashed interest rates three times since the beginning of 2013. Continue reading »

The Reserve Bank of India has cut its repo lending rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 per cent, in line with expectation.

But in a surprisingly hawkish move, it warned that room for further reductions was “very limited”.

Continue reading »

Inflation is finally slowing in India – good news for consumers, and for policy makers looking for room to cut rates.

In March, annual inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index came in at 5.96 per cent, the slowest rate in years, down from 6.84 per cent a month earlier. Continue reading »

The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo lending rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday to 7.5 per cent a year, meeting analyst expectations.

The cut follows a 25 basis point reduction in the rate in January, the first since April 2012. Though analysts have been forecasting further cuts in the coming months, the RBI has said there is limited room for further action. Continue reading »

India auto factoryIndia’s industrial production increased in January – only the fourth month out of the past ten to see positive growth.

The index of industrial production was up 2.4 per cent year-on-year this January, double the 1.2 per cent rate forecast in the market. But one month’s growth doesn’t mean recovery is imminent.

Continue reading »

Inflation is slowing unexpectedly fast in India, according to figures published on Thursday.

The wholesale price index (WPI) – India’s main measure of prices – was just 6.62 per cent year-on-year in January, slowing from the December rate of 7.18 per cent from and 7.23 per cent in January 2012. Continue reading »

The Reserve Bank of India has cut rates by 25 basis points to encourage growth. Lex’s Stuart Kirk and Julia Grindell discuss whether this is enough, and the impact on equities.

The Reserve Bank of India has met expectations with a 25 basis points cut in the interest rate to 7.75 per cent. This is the first reduction since April, when the rate was cut by 50bp to 8 per cent. Analysts are now forecasting a further 25bp reduction in March. Continue reading »

Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram (C) speaks as Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal (L) and Law minister Salman Khurshid (R) look on during a joint press conference in New Delhi on August 24, 2012.Palaniappan Chidambaram, the Indian finance minister, will continue what he sees as his lonely battle to promote much-needed economic growth after the Reserve Bank of India left interest rates unchanged in its latest decision on Tuesday.

The central bank said in its mid-quarter policy review that it was leaving the policy repo rate unchanged at 8.0 per cent. Nor was there any change to the 4.25 per cent cash reserve ratio for banks. Continue reading »

There are fewer sights that central bankers like more than inflation coming down, but that might not be enough for the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates.

While India’s WPI inflation figure eased beyond most economists’ expectations (of 7.6 per cent) to 7.2 per cent for November, down from October’s 7.5 per cent, analysts are sticking to the prediction for a hold in rates next week. Continue reading »

Reserve Bank of IndiaSince April, when the Reserve Bank of India made a surprise 50 basis points cut interest rates, before every monthly policy review meeting the markets speculate that another cut is coming – despite the fact that inflation remains sticky and high.

But the RBI seems immune to hints and suggestions. Continue reading »

Indian industry continued to disappoint in June, according to data released on Thursday by the ministry of statistics. It doesn’t augur well for the GDP growth print for the quarter ended in June. But those hoping for an interest rate cut will likely need to wait a while longer.

Indian industrial activity contracted 1.8 per cent in June, down from 2.4 per cent growth in May and well below the 1 per cent growth consensus. While there was a base effect (activity grew by 9.5 per cent last June), economists said the data boded ill for the beleaguered Indian economy. For the quarter ended in June, activity contracted 0.1 per cent compared to 6.9 per cent growth during the same period last year. Continue reading »

The Reserve Bank of India kept benchmark interest rates on hold on Tuesday, in a widely expected bid to contain persistently high inflation, while leaving the growth revival agenda in the hands of the government.

India’s central bank kept the repo rate – the rate at which it lends to commercial banks – at 8 per cent even as markets hoped for a much-needed cut to stimulate borrowing and get growth back on track after a recent nosedive to its lowest level in nine years. Continue reading »

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Number of the day

-0.2% Fall in Polish retail sales in April, rather worse than 1.1 per cent growth expected.

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