Brazilian industry: ready to roll?
Some relief on Tuesday for a Brazilian government getting desperate for signs of life in the economy: more motor vehicles were made in Brazil in April (340,865) than in any other month in history. Considering the auto sector makes up about a fifth of Brazilian industry, that’s got to be good news. Hasn’t it?
Well, yes and no. Continue reading »
India: factory output increase less positive than it seems
India’s industrial production data for the month of February has come in higher than expected. Industrial production rose 0.6 per cent year-on-year – a sharp contrast with analysts’ forecasts of a 0.7 per cent decline.
Looks like good news for an economy struggling to generate growth. But the headline figure doesn’t tell the whole story: it’s boosted by the volatile capital goods segment, which expanded 9.5 per cent. Basic goods output fell by 1.8 per cent, and intermediate goods production by 0.7 per cent. Continue reading »
India IP: one month’s good numbers don’t clear the gloom
India’s industrial production increased in January – only the fourth month out of the past ten to see positive growth.
The index of industrial production was up 2.4 per cent year-on-year this January, double the 1.2 per cent rate forecast in the market. But one month’s growth doesn’t mean recovery is imminent.
Brazil inflation: it gets worse
Is inflation getting out of control in Brazil? The national statistics office said on Thursday that consumer prices rose by 0.86 per cent in January, bringing the annual rate to 6.15 per cent. That’s up from 5.84 per cent in December and heading closer to the upper limit of the government’s tolerance range of 6.5 per cent, two percentage points above its inflation target.
The target, it seems, has been forgotten. And if industrial production figures out this week are any guide, it is unlikely to be remembered any time soon. Continue reading »
India: weak industrial output boosts rate cut hopes
The surprise decline in India’s industrial output in November, disclosed in figures published on Friday, was largely due to the Diwali holiday, when many businesses close for days.
Industrial production fell 0.1 per cent in November year-on-year basis, in stark contrast to revised growth of 8.3 per cent in October – when the figure was boosted by the fact that in 2011, Diwali fell in October.
But forget holidays. The real story is that IP has grown in just three of the last eight months. The pressure to cut interest rates is getting stronger. Continue reading »
Falling IP deepens Hungary’s woes
Another dose of bad news for Hungary on Tuesday as industrial production figures for November showed a much sharper contraction than expected. Output fell by 6.9 per cent year on year, much worse than the consensus 3.5 per cent contraction.
It leaves the country facing a deepening recession just as the government has thrown caution to the wind and decided it can do without the support of an IMF loan. The chances of an adequate response seem limited given the changes about to take place at the top of the central bank. Continue reading »
SE Asia: business confidence droops
The conventional wisdom for the past six months has been that south-east Asia is pretty much the last man standing in the global economy.
Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore have delivered decent growth, thanks to strong domestic demand and, even as the eurozone crisis and China’s deceleration have buffeted them.
But the region may be starting to slow. Continue reading »
South Korea: no sign of recovery
South Korea’s economy is losing pace quickly as it battles strong headwinds from the US and Europe. Industrial output fell for the third consecutive month in August, adding to pressure for additional monetary stimulus.
Industrial output in fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.7 per cent from July, following a 1.9 per cent decline in July. Part of the fall was caused by a wave of strikes in the auto sector during the summer. But the downward trend is unlikely to be reversed any time soon. Continue reading »
Brazil’s GDP enters “joke” territory
When Credit Suisse said back in June that Brazil’s economy would grow by just 1.5 per cent this year, Guido Mantega, finance minister, described the prediction as “a joke”.
But having revised his own forecast down from 4 per cent to 2.5 per cent, Mantega (pictured) may have to take Credit Suisse more seriously. The latest weekly survey of market economists from Brazil’s central bank puts GDP growth at 1.57 per cent. Continue reading »
Mexico IP: up and ahead of Brazil
As Mexicans gear up for this weekend’s celebrations of “El Grito” — “The Shout” — of independence, those who keep a close watch on the economy are puffing up their chests thanks to more good news.
The July industrial production figures published by the government on Tuesday showed a 4.9 per cent year-on-year increase. In seasonally adjusted terms, they also grew by 0.5 per cent on June.
Both figures exceeded most analysts’ expectations. They also compared favourably with those of Brazil, where industrial production fell by 1 per cent over the last four weeks and has been slipping faster since then. Continue reading »
Brazil economy: no green shoots yet
Brazil’s industrial production rose less than expected by 0.2 per cent in June from May. Not exactly a reason to celebrate you might think…
However, the country’s finance minister Guido Mantega heralded the data on Wednesday as the “turning point” for the country – proof that the economy was beginning to gain momentum.
If anything though, Mantega’s response is a sign of just how bad things have got for the world’s second-biggest emerging market economy. June’s data was in fact the first rebound after three straight months of declining output. Continue reading »
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