The numbers are not head-turners, but the latest retail sales data out of Poland show the country continuing a steady, if unspectacular, economic revival – which means continued support for current low interest rates.
Retail sales in September grew by an annual 3.9 per cent, below analysts expectations of 4.7 per cent but still enough to show that the economy is rebounding from a sharp slump in the first half of the year. Continue reading »
How do you deal with complaints of rising food inflation? Blame it on the weather.
FT readers will be aware of surging onion prices in India (they rose by 323 per cent year-on-year in September, up from 245 per cent in August: now that’s tear-jerking). The explanation is usually weather-induced shortages. But there are structural reasons for food inflation, too. Continue reading »
So, Russia is considering price freezes to provide some relief for stretched household budgets and get the country’s economy going again. Investors are likely to be dismayed. Ordinary Russians should be, too. Continue reading »
Is this a worry for India?
Having fallen gradually over the past nine month, Wholesale Price Index inflation rose to 4.86 per cent in India this June. That’s up from 4.7 per cent in May but still below the 7.58 per cent inflation recorded in June last year. It was also under the average forecast of 4.90 per cent in a Reuters poll of analysts. Continue reading »
Further evidence that emerging market central banks are operating independently of the US Federal Reserve: Russia’s central bank held its policy interest rate unchanged at 8.25 per cent on Friday, in spite of evidence that foreign portfolio investors are taking their money out of the country. Continue reading »
Second-guessing Brazil’s central bank has been a little tricky recently. Market volatility and behind-the-scenes political pressure have made interest rate decisions somewhat of a mystery. But economists and traders are relatively confident of a 50 basis point interest rate hike later on Wednesday, it seems. Continue reading »
This was not a number the markets wanted to see, particularly after the upheaval in Turkey in recent weeks. The country’s inflation for the 12 months to the end of June hit 8.3 per cent, up from 6.5 per cent in May. “This increase is beyond anyone’s expectation,” wrote Ozgur Altug at BGC Partners in Istanbul in a note.
The lira flirted with the level of TL1.95 to the dollar, close to its all time lows, while the stock market also fell some 3 per cent from the previous day’s close by early afternoon. Continue reading »
Stuck between the rock of currency depreciation and the hard place of a slowing economy, South Africa’s Reserve Bank kept interest rates on hold at 5 per cent on Thursday while revising down its predictions for 2013 GDP growth.
With governor Gill Marcus declaring herself “increasingly concerned about the deteriorating outlook for the South African economy,” the bank downgraded 2013 growth forecasts from 2.7 per cent to 2.4 per cent – a far from insubstantial cut for a country where about a quarter of the working population is unemployed. Continue reading »
Ghana’s central bank sprung a surprise on Wednesday by raising its policy rate from 15 per cent to 16 per cent, stepping up its efforts to halt the decline of the cedi.
Central Bank Governor Henry Kofi Wampah noted risks to economic growth arising in part from tightened credit, but decided the weakening of the currency was the bigger threat. Continue reading »
India’s annual wholesale price inflation rate dropped to 4.89 per cent in April, a 41-month low.
It was sharply down on the 5.96 per cent recorded in March and well below expectations, with an average forecast of 5.5 per cent in a Reuters poll of analysts. Continue reading »
While China’s manufacturing indices have been rather depressing of late, Indonesia’s numbers are much healthier.
The PMI score came out at 51.7 in April – up from March, a six-month high, and the second highest in the last few years. So, all good? Continue reading »
Brazil’s central bank is in tightening mode again, raising its policy interest rate last week after a long cycle of loosening that began in August 2011. It is worried that inflation is on the rise and less worried, apparently, about slow growth.
But behind recent numbers on inflation is another set of numbers on retail sales, which fell in February for the first time in a decade. If that turns into a trend, the very foundations of Brazil’s recent growth story will be undermined. Chart of the week takes a look. Continue reading »
The devil being in the detail is a phrase with much resonance in Hungary – especially when, as on Thursday, things look rather too good.
“Inflation at record low” said the headlines. Indeed, annual consumer price inflation fell to 2.2 per cent in March, well below the consensus of 2.5 per cent and the lowest ever recorded since the transition to a market economy. Continue reading »
Figures for March inflation, published on Wednesday, will have made painful reading in Brasília: for the first time since late 2011, consumer price inflation was above the government’s upper limit of 6.5 per cent a year, at 6.59 per cent.
But it could have been worse. Indeed, the benchmark IPCA index rose 0.47 per cent during March, less than the 0.5 per cent consensus in a Bloomberg survey of 38 economists. And inflation in the month was rather less than February’s 0.6 per cent. So, sighs of relief, rather than gnashing of teeth? Continue reading »
Should gold traders be paying attention to Chinese pork prices? It may sound outlandish, but new research has uncovered an interesting link between global gold prices and Chinese inflation (which in turn is often driven by pork prices). Continue reading »