An IMF research paper shows how rare Latin American financial crises have been since 1998, when the world was rocked by EM currency crises. We’ve graphed the findings below.
Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin, the authors, think the continent has learnt from 1998. Successful countries like Brazil, Peru and Chile have stimulated their economies when GDP dipped; before 1998, they were less keen to do so.
Here is a reminder, if any were needed, of how economists and investors have turned sour on Latin America during the course of this year.
Beyondbrics’ very own Jonathan Wheatley will be chairing a forum on Latin America and the new global economy. And you can watch it live from 4pm EST, or 9pm GMT, using the details below.
See below the break for the link to register, panelist details and more.
Investors have got used to the idea that Brazil’s economy is not delivering on its post-crisis promise and that Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico are where future growth lies.
But how upbeat are consumers in those countries? A survey commissioned by LatAm Confidential, a new service from the Financial Times launched this week, throws up some surprising results.
By Fernando Losada of AllianceBernstein
Since May, over a quarter of the past five months’ foreign portfolio investment into emerging markets has been withdrawn, according to the latest available data from EPFR. For the Latin American economies, this is likely to result in slower growth, but the impact may be milder this time around.
The future looks bright for the Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF), the Latin American development bank.
Not only have the CAF’s lending operations almost doubled in the last five years to over $15bn, but the bank’s president, Enrique García, expects them to double again over the next five years.
India is hoping to reach $50bn in trade with Latin America by 2014, according to a recent interview with Rengaraj Viswanathan, Indian ambassador to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
The move would more than double current trade between the markets, which totaled a little more than $24bn in 2010, with India exporting $10.7bn and importing $14bn with LatAm.