Malaysia economy

By Gavin Bowring and Hafiz Noor Shams

Malaysia has informed a leading Chinese real estate company of a decision to slash the size of a huge but controversial development bordering Singapore following complaints from the city state’s government, according to local media reports.

The Malaysian Insider, a popular bilingual local news site, reported that Kuala Lumpur has cut the size of “Forest City” – a joint venture between the Chinese developer Country Garden and the sultan of Johor – to 405 hectares from the originally planned 1,600 hectares. In its shrunken form, the project is set to be slightly smaller than the Singaporean island of Sentosa, which covers 500 hectares. Read more

By Gavin Bowring and Hafiz Noor Shams

Only a few hundred meters from Singapore, the sleepy fishing villages that flank the Malaysia-Singapore Second Bridge, to the west of Johor Bahru’s famous Iskandar development, feel a world away from skyscrapers and hustle.

But this is set to change. Country Garden, one of China’s largest real estate developers, has bought a huge 1,800 hectare area of land and sea, and has made progress on developing “Forest City”, a planned mega-project almost entirely built on four separate reclaimed islands.

When completed, it would be even larger than Singapore’s Sentosa Island and have a skyline reminiscent of Dubai or Shanghai’s Pudong district (see photo). Read more

Some might call it investing Nirvana. Combine a company with a steady – inevitable, even – growth in its customer base with a trend towards higher spending. Sell it as a rare route into the growing wealth of the ethnic Chinese middle class. The enterprise in question is even called Nirvana – and it sells funeral services.

Nirvana Asia, a southeast Asian undertaker, opened the books on its $300m initial public offering in Hong Kong on Tuesday. Late in the first day of a week-long roadshow, bankers reported bids had already covered the shares on offer.

The deal would create in Hong Kong a mini-sector of what bankers like to call “deathcare services” following the listing last year of Fu Shou Yuan, a China-focused group in the same business, which enjoyed a 45 per cent opening day bounce. Read more

An Indian labourer carries a sack of vegetables on his head at a wholesale market in Kolkata on September 14, 2011Economists expect the drop in global food prices to help keep inflation low across emerging Asia over the next year, benefiting consumers and allowing central banks to keep monetary policy loose.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that global commodity prices are 8.3 per cent lower than at the start of the year. This can have some complicated effects, with some winners and losers within the same country. Read more

The dream of an “Asean car” was first floated, in broad terms, by former prime minister of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohamad, when he spearheaded the creation of Proton in the 1980s. The idea was to form a national Malaysian car company that could be exported to Southeast Asia and beyond.

That didn’t quite work. Proton failed to gain traction much beyond its home market of Malaysia, although it did see some success as a low-priced, competently engineered vehicle in Britain for a time, thanks to the provision of engines by Mitsubishi of Japan.

Now, the idea has resurfaced. Najib Razak, current Malaysian prime minister, has announced that Malaysia and Indonesia plan jointly to develop an “Asean car”. Read more

Critics who slam Malaysia for spending beyond its means in racking up a level of household indebtedness that surpasses the US are misjudging the country’s economic resilience, a senior official said.

Abdul Wahid Omar, a minister in the prime minister’s department, told the Financial Times that Malaysia “deserves better” than the negative outlook on its sovereign debt rating that was reaffirmed last month by Fitch, the rating agency.

“We believe we deserve better,” said Wahid Omar, who heads the country’s Economic Planning Unit. “We have demonstrated our ability to manage government finances better (and) we are taking measures to reduce subsidies and introduce the GST (Goods and Services Tax).” Read more

By Jennifer Hughes

Malaysia Airlines was struggling long before its two disasters this year. Higher costs and tougher competition in its own backyard from Tony Fernandes’s AirAsia had already inflicted financial damage in spite of it’s having tapped the markets for $2bn of equity and debt since 2005. Read more

Indonesia may have surprised analysts with a 50 basis point rate hike, but no such drama from the central bank of Malaysia, which has held steady at 3 per cent. It follows Thailand’s similar hold earlier this week. Read more

Central banks, we are often told, missed the warning signs that led to the “Great Recession” in 2008: an excessive build-up of household and mortgage debt.

But Malaysia’s central bank, Bank Negara, is showing that you can get ahead of the curve and prevent trouble before it starts to build up to critical levels. That’s the hope, at least. Read more

Najib Razak, PM of MalaysiaFresh from an election victory, Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak (pictured) was full of new-term enthusiasm when he visited the Financial Times this week, speaking of his plans to push his country into the ranks of the developed world by 2020.

He didn’t say it would be easy but it may be harder than he expects, given the slowdown in the world economy: trade figures published on Friday showed a 5.8 per cent drop exports in May, nearly double forecasts of around 3.0 per cent and April’s 3.3 per cent decline. Read more

A China slowdown, plunging commodity prices and the looming end of QE. A perfect storm, you might think, for Malaysia – a commodity-producing country that exports to China and benefited handsomely from QE-fuelled cash that washed through emerging markets.

But that’s not the view of prime minister Najib Razak, who plays down the threats to growth coming from the world economy. As a leader fresh from an election victory, his confidence is understandable. But is it misplaced? Read more

By Christian Lewis and Shaun Levine of Eurasia Group

Malaysia’s general elections earlier this month shed light on what sort of economic reform policies will be possible for the ruling party, United Malay National Organization (UMNO), in both the short and long terms. Malaysia’s economic growth accelerated to 5.6 per cent in 2012, and will only moderate slightly to 5.3 per cent this year in the absence of pre-election public spending programmes. Read more

Malaysia’s ruling Barisan Nasional (national front) coalition that was returned to power in this month’s election faces some serious economic problems, notably the country’s poor export performance.

Exports have shrunk in the last two months in response to weakening global demand that has also hit other Asian exporters. But unlike its rivals, Malaysia faces a more deep-rooted export challenge – a serious decline in the export role of its manufacturers that has been partly masked by increases in commodity exports. Chart of the week takes a look. Read more

Election give-aways are the oldest political trick in the book.

But in Malaysia the prime minister, Najib Razak, is taking them to a new level with the distribution of cash handouts to low-income workers as he prepares to fight a tight election with the country’s opposition.

With the opposition making its own splurge pledges, the voters face some tempting offers. But investors may be less enthralled by the potential pressure on future budgets. Read more

Bose, the US maker of speakers and home entertainment systems, has chosen what to some might seem an unexpected location for its first manufacturing plant in Asia: Penang, on Malaysia’s western coast.

The plant will be the sixth for Bose worldwide, allowing it to supply markets in Asia more easily than from places such as Mexico, where it already has a plant. Read more

By Christian Lewis and Shaun Levine of Eurasia

The government is unlikely to be unseated in Malaysia’s upcoming parliamentary election, which is good news for the business environment. A win by the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition will eliminate most investors’ concerns about instability that have recently contributed to market volatility.

That said, given the complexities of Malaysian politics, a reduced margin of victory for the incumbent could still impact the speed with which BN’s ambitious reforms are introduced. Read more

Promoting investment into places like Sabah, on the eastern tip of Malaysia’s bit of Borneo, isn’t easy at the best of times. It is a remote part of Southeast Asia known mostly for spectacular diving and eco-tourism in lush rain forests.

But with the launch on Tuesday of air and ground assaults against Filipino insurgents in eastern Sabah, a few brave souls from the Sabah Economic Development and Investment Authority appeared at a Singapore hotel at an exhibition showcasing investing in Malaysia. Read more

While much of the rest of the world is sneezing, Malaysia is successfully fending off a cold. The economy exceeded expectations on Friday – not for the first time in recent months – with year-on-year GDP growth of 5.2 per cent in the third quarter. Read more

Investors haven’t loved Malaysia this year, but they’ve liked it enough. The ringgit is one of the better performing currencies in the region, while bankers have been able to get away a number of big ticket IPOs – albeit with some help from the country’s pension funds.

But, with an election a maximum of six months away, is the market showing complacency? Read more

Emerging markets haven’t quite lost their capacity to deliver a pleasant surprise. With the global economy slowing fast, economists had forecast 4.6 per cent for Malaysia’s GDP growth in the three months to the end of June.

On Wednesday, the central bank came out with a figure of 5.4 per cent year-on-year, and, for good measure revised upwards its estimate for the first quarter from 4.7 per cent to 4.9 per cent. Powering the way was investment, both private and public, with the government splurging ahead of parliamentary elections expected later this year. While that raises questions about the prospects for next year, for the moment, investors like what they see. Read more