For years, the big-picture, long-term story in the global economy has been that of convergence. The dates and metrics vary but not the broad forecast: if current trends hold, then, around the middle of this century, per capita incomes in emerging economies will ‘converge’ with those in the rich world. The result: A ‘middle class’ world and vast fortunes for all those clever enough to position themselves to take advantage. But the OECD is out today with two bits of research/futurology that make clear the picture is a lot more complicated than that. And convergence may not happen as fast as many expect. The message of the first (the hefty annual “Perspectives on Development”) is that, bar China, the “BRIICS” (the Brics plus Indonesia) are likely to fall well short of seeing their per capita incomes reach the average of OECD countries by 2050. Read more
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