By Derek Scissors, American Enterprise Institute
Over the next few years, the Indian economy will seem to be doing well, if judged only by headlines. Real growth in gross domestic product (GDP) was just reported at 7.3 per cent in the final quarter of last year, which impresses some. GDP growth, however, is not translating into economic dynamism.
Despite improvements in the business environment under Narendra Modi, the prime minister, India’s development model remains state-led. The state is horribly inefficient, inhibiting prosperity, and modest reforms expected in the upcoming national budget will have little impact.
Counting on India as a market saviour is a mistake. Read more
By Sanjeev Prasad, Kotak Institutional Equities
The Indian government’s annual budget – to be announced on Saturday – will be intensely scrutinised for clues about the evolving policy priorities of Narendra Modi, the prime minister.
But while many will be focused on expenditure and revenue plans, Indian business will be looking in a somewhat different direction. It is hoping that the budget will further reforms to bring about a lower ‘visible’ role of the government in the economy, under which it relinquishes or reduces its multiple roles of financier, manager, owner, policy-maker and regulator.
The budget is an ideal opportunity for the government to re-evaluate its role in the economy at a time when the private sector, states and local governments are playing an increasingly larger role in economic and social development. A greater ‘invisible’ role of the government simply as a facilitator of private sector investment is required. Read more
By Amit Bhandari, Gateway House
Petroleum prices touched a new four -year low of $72.5 per barrel after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided last week against reducing production . The 35 per cent price drop is a huge relief for India, where petroleum products comprise a third of the import bill. Cheaper oil means narrower current account and fiscal deficits, and reduced prices at the pump for consumers shopping for food-grains, vegetables, cement and steel.
Can this happy situation last? Will 2015 be the year in which high oil prices do not disadvantage India? Judging by history, it may be.
Before oil prices began to rise in 2003, a 20-year run of price stability fuelled global growth. But cheap oil killed off investments in exploration and production. OPEC gained market share, from 30 per cent of global production in 1983 to over 40 per cent by the end of 1990s. Read more
Shares in Oil India dropped 1.4 per cent on Friday to Rs532.90, as the Indian government opened an offer for sale for 10 per cent of the state-run company. But with Delhi offering stock for as little as Rs510, many analysts see a buying opportunity – particularly if government plans for energy market reform accelerate. Read more
As sanctions on Iranian oil exports tighten, some relief for Tehran has come from the Indian government, which will support insurance for tankers transporting Iranian crude to Indian refiners.
India follows China and Japan in providing insurance support in response to EU sanctions introduced on 1 July, targeting insurers of ships carrying Iranian oil. But it seems likely to be no more than a stop-gap solution to shortages already hitting India’s refineries, as new sanctions are expected to make the trade increasingly difficult. Read more
By Shriram Subramanian of InGovern
The letter sent by The Children’s Investment Fund (TCI) to Coal India is a wakeup call for the Indian government, companies and institutional investors to take corporate governance issues seriously. Probably for the first time in Indian corporate history, an institutional investor has threatened to sue individual board members of a listed entity. Read more