Could the end to a grim year bring hope for beleaguered Romania? Markets have welcomed the ruling coalition’s landslide victory in Sunday’s election, hoping the country will win a new deal with the IMF and push through reforms in return. But have investors factored in the challenges ahead, or Romania’s fluid political landscape? Continue reading »
A thumping election victory looks set to put Romania’s ruling coalition back in power with a strong mandate, according the exit polls following Sunday’s vote.
The predicted landslide for the Social Liberal Union (USL) led by Prime Minister Victor Ponta is also a resounding defeat for his rival, President Traian Basescu. But while the result looks clear-cut, exactly what happens next is still not clear, as the wily Basescu may still have a few cards to play. Continue reading »
Given all the eurozone bad press, it is unusual to hear from a man who can’t wait for the day when his country enters into the single currency.
But, as a report in Monday’s FTfm explains, for one Romanian fund manager euro entry would usher in a future with more freedom. Continue reading »
Romanian president Traian Basescu has narrowly escaped the chop.
The constitutional court ruled on Tuesday that the referendum vote to impeach Basescu was invalid because the turnout was less than 50 per cent. So, by a majority of 6-3, the judges ruled that Basescu could remain in office even though 87.6 per cent of those who voted in the July 29 poll wanted him out.
The combative Basescu will quickly throw himself back into the political fray, resuming his battles with the centre-left government of Victor Ponta. But the court decision should appease European Union partners anxious about Romania’s democratic stability. So, the verdict should be mildly positive for investors. Continue reading »
The Romanian leu strengthened by as much as 1 per cent against the euro on Monday after preliminary results of the weekend’s poll showed that president Traian Basescu had survived a referendum on his impeachment, called by the leftist government of prime minister Victor Ponta.
But the relief will probably be short-lived. Basescu survived only because less than half the electorate turned out. The vote will to nothing to bury an increasingly acrimonious political battle that has raised international concerns about the rule of law. The leu could easily be heading back to new lows. Continue reading »
The Romanian leu has started what could be a tense week in Bucharest by trading near the record lows it reached on Friday, when parliament voted to suspend president Traian Basescu and order a referendum on his impeachment.
The leu was at 4.52 to the euro at 13:00 Bucharest time on Monday, a slight recovery from Friday’s close of 4.53 but much weaker than its recent average of 4.46. Romanians were nervously awaiting a Constitutional Court hearing into the legality of the impeachment move. Continue reading »
But will he blow the IMF's trumpet?
While eurozone policy makers thrash out the growth vs austerity debate, the evidence from Romania seems to be that the traditional medicine works.
The IMF has given Romania a qualified thumbs up on it’s economic reforms and recovery. However, the Fund may have praised Romania’s progress, but it still warned of substantial downside risks and that reform still has a long way to go. Continue reading »
The Romanian leu suffered its biggest one-day fall this year after the government unexpectedly collapsed in a no-confidence vote.
Prime minister Mihai Razvan Ungureanu’s two-month-old administration is the latest victim of a growing political backlash against austerity policies implemented across the EU.
His successor’s job will be just as difficult. So will the challenges of investing in Romania. Continue reading »