Rosneft has raised the stakes in its campaign to strip Gazprom of its monopoly over Russian gas exports. In a sharply worded statement on Tuesday, Russia’s state oil company threatened to take Gazprom to court unless it opened up a planned pipeline to China to rival gas producers.
Gazprom has been gearing up to build the Power of Siberia pipeline since signing a $400bn gas export contract with China in May. Linking vast Gazprom controlled gas fields in east Siberia with the Russian Pacific, the 4,000km pipeline will feed gas to domestic consumers and to the Chinese border. Continue reading »
By Andrew Foxall of The Henry Jackson Society
The prospect of Russia invading Ukraine may be receding, but Russia’s standoff with the West continues to affect the Russian economy by damaging its banks’ ability to access funding. It has also led Russia to step-up its efforts to decrease its dependency on the West, as part of which it plans to establish a joint rating agency with China.
After the imposition of Western sanctions against Russia in March, Igor Shuvalov, Russia’s deputy prime minister, warned that the biggest damage to Russia would come not from the targeted sanctions but from “hidden” measures, such as political pressure on rating agencies. Continue reading »
Last week, Alexander Lukashenko, president of Belarus, bafflingly announced he would sign a decree that would return to the status quo in 1861 and reinstate serfdom. When it comes to backsliding on economic modernisation, Mr Lukashenko is clearly a world-beater.
Yet other emerging markets, while not actually going backwards, have shown little enthusiasm in recent years for bold policy moves to streamline regulation, tackle corruption, improve the legal environment and, most particularly, build the infrastructure needed for a modern economy. Continue reading »
As western governments impose sanctions on Russia, international majors with interests in the country have stayed out of the fray, saying it’s business as usual. France’s Total, for one, was not going to let the Ukraine crisis halt plans to finalize a deal with Russian Lukoil this week that paves the way for exploration of tight oil reserves in western Siberia.
Total has entered a joint venture with Lukoil to explore the tight oil potential of the Bazhenov formation in western Siberia, the French company said on Friday. Lukoil will have a controlling 51 per cent interest of the project, with Total holding the remaining 49 per cent. After conducting seismic surveys this year, the partners expect to begin drilling in 2015. Continue reading »
By Andrew Foxall of The Henry Jackson Society
Russia may have completed decade-long negotiations to sell gas to China in a deal worth US$400 bn over the next 30 years, but the agreement barely begins to paper over the all-too-obvious cracks in Russia’s weakening economy. Moscow’s stock market reacted positively to the deal, but it is down 4.8% year-to-date. Elsewhere, all other indicators of economic prosperity in Russia have decreased since the start of 2014.
Russia is more dependent on the global economy than it ever has been. And it seeks even greater dependency – as President Putin made clear in his opening remarks to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum earlier today. On the one hand, dependency brings with it obvious benefits. On the other, it leaves a country much more open to the vagaries of investor sentiments and perceptions of political risks as well as expected economic returns. Continue reading »
By Demetrius Floudas of Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Kaliningrad
Amid the growing political tensions between Russia and the West, the world’s top economists and politicians are unanimous that the Russian economy will get worse and worse under new waves of sanctions.
But none of them mention that Russia is just as likely to hurt itself with its own damaging monetary policy. Continue reading »
Indicators designed by the OECD to give a six-month lead in identifying shifts in the business cycles of key economies are showing an increasingly gloomy outlook for all four of the Bric counties – Brazil, China, Russia and India.
The most negative outlook is for India, followed by Brazil and China – while Russia’s performance may only be starting to slow, according to the Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) compiled by the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development. Continue reading »
With the Ukraine crisis casting a shadow over Russia’s gas trade with Europe, Gazprom has moved to shore up relations with Turkey, its second biggest foreign gas customer after Germany. In talks in Ankara on Monday, Russia’s state gas monopoly agreed to boost capacity in the Blue Stream pipeline that transports gas across the Black Sea to northern Turkey.
On a working visit to Ankara on Monday, Alexander Medvedev, deputy head of Gazprom, met Taner Yildiz, Turkey’s energy minister, for talks aimed at boosting gas co-operation between the two countries. The two men agreed that capacity in Blue Stream should be upgraded to to 19bn cubic meters a year from 16bn cubic meters a year to enhance Turkish energy security. Continue reading »
Russia brushed off the threat of western energy sanctions on Friday and pledged to press ahead with plans to build a new gas export pipeline that would strengthen its hold on European gas markets.
Russia is continuing work on the 2,500km South Stream pipeline that will carry gas across the Black Sea to southern and central Europe, Alexander Novak, Russian energy minister told a press conference in Moscow on Friday. Continue reading »
There is no doubt that emerging market (EM) investors have cheered up considerably of late. Following a torrid January and February, virtually all asset classes in the EM universe appear – on aggregate at least – to be gaining in value.
The bellwether stock index, the MSCI EM index, is up 9.6 per cent from its low on February 5. EM sovereign bonds are yielding an average of 5.51 per cent, down 0.37 per cent since January 1. Local currency bonds are, in many cases, producing stellar returns sharpened by windfall currency gains. Indeed, some EM currencies are among the world’s best performers, with the Indonesian rupiah rising 7.81 per cent, the Brazilian real gaining 7.3 per cent and the Indian rupee climbing 2.8 per cent so far this year. Continue reading »
Russia’s Sukhoi Civil Aviation has reached a preliminary agreement to supply up to 100 Superjet-100’s to China in what would be by far the biggest sale yet of its flagship regional passenger jet. Apart from swelling Sukhoi’s order books, a Chinese deal could help Russia circumvent possible western sanctions.
Sukhoi Civil Aviation signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to sell up to one hundred Superjet-100s to O’Bay Aircraft, a privately held airline based in Henan province in north China. As part of the deal, the two sides are considering a joint assembly venture to make SSJ-100’s in Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province. Continue reading »
A wave of patriotism is sweeping Russia following the annexation of Crimea. But will the euphoria last long enough to have Russians invest in the Black Sea peninsula and support the local economy by holidaying there? Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s prime minister, chaired a government meeting on Monday to discuss how to make Crimea a going concern.
It sounds like a daunting task. The Kremlin took a huge risk when it redrew the map of Ukraine last week and took possession of Crimea. Western powers have condemned the move as a land grab and are threatening Russia with painful sanctions and decades of international isolation. Continue reading »
The Ukraine crisis has entered its “wait and see” phase. Does this mark the beginning of a peaceful resolution or is it the calm before the storm? Have investors embarked on a relief rally, or is the dead cat bouncing?
There were opinions to match all tastes from market analysts on Wednesday. Here is a beyondbrics summary of those views, from “Crisis? What crisis?” to “Cold War 2.0″. Continue reading »
By Vladimir Kolychev of VTB Capital
Russia’s economy did not ring in the New Year optimistically. Both structural, related to exhaustion of the previous growth model, as well as cyclical headwinds, including budget consolidation and slowing consumer demand to name but two, have proved significant drags on growth.
And after four IMF growth forecast cuts, a struggling labour market, uncertainty in commodity and oil & gas prices and stagnating investments, Russia’s economy could be likened to an aircraft slowing to stall speed – the speed below which an aircraft can no longer maintain level flight and starts to descend. How then can Russia’s economy weather the storm in 2014 and avoid stall speed? Continue reading »
The 5th in our series of guest posts on the outlook for 2014 is by Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory
In economic terms 2013 was Russia’s Annus Horribilis. From growth of 3.4 per cent in 2012, and early expectations of a repeat performance this year, the economy is much more likely to report growth of only 1.3 per cent. That is still a good number in global terms but a long way off the 4 to 5 per cent growth that the country actually needs. A second consecutive year of poor growth will feel like stagnation and lead to a raft of earnings forecast downgrades in companies exposed to the domestic economy.
The good news is that the President and his Kremlin advisors are finally starting to pay attention. Continue reading »