Tag: Russian politics

Vladimir Putin has unveiled Russia’s new cabinet… and the make-up is largely as expected. Confirming rumours that have swirled around since Putin’s inauguration, we now know that Igor Shuvalov will remain first deputy prime minister, and that Arkady Dvorkovich, Medvedev’s chief economic aide, will join the cabinet for the first time as a deputy prime minister. Continue reading »

Few emerging markets have escaped the storms emanating from the eurozone. But few have been hit as hard as Russian equities.

On Thursday, the rouble-denominated Micex index entered bear territory, with a 3.5 per cent fall in Moscow trading, taking the fall from its March high to over 20 per cent. The $-based RTS, which fell 4.4 per cent on Thursday, was already deep in bear land, having breached the 20 per cent level earlier in the week.

Along with the general flight to safety, investors are reacting to the sharp oil price drop which the Greek crisis has prompted by hitting economic growth, notably in the EU,  Russia’s biggest customer. For those who bet on a bounce on Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency, this is all very painful. Continue reading »

Alexei Navalny, Russian democratic protest leader May 2012You’d think that Alexei Navalny, would be too busy with politics to do anything else at the moment. But the Russian opposition activist has jumped on the recovery in retail lending with plans to team up with a local bank to launch a debit card to help support his anti-corruption fund.

As Vedomosti, the FT’s sister paper reported on Tuesday, it will be a brave bank that risks associating with Navalny who is famous for annoying the authorities with blogs about alleged frauds at state companies etc. But the debit card move shows that the activist has a sharp nose for business as well as a barbed tongue. Continue reading »

The markets weren’t kind to Vladimir Putin as he was sworn in as Russia’s president. With investors worried about everything from China, oil, US jobs and the French elections, there was little enthusiasm in the Moscow markets to greet the new president.

Stocks and the rouble both slipped on Monday, by 0.4 per cent and 1 per cent respectively, dragged down by the decline in oil. Fund managers clearly had other issues on their mind. But they’re also wary of Russia. Continue reading »

By Vladimir Pantyushin and Neil Wedlake of Barclays

The March 4 presidential election sealed the first-round victory of Vladimir Putin. Three previous election rounds were followed by negative equity market trends. This time, the macroeconomic and political background is supportive in the short term: GDP growth is at a premium to most developed and emerging markets, wages are growing, oil prices are solid and the rouble is strengthening.

Beyond the short-term horizon, however, we see several challenges for Russia’s economy and equities. Continue reading »

Procter & Gamble is used to navigating Russia’s difficult business environment after selling consumer products in the country for more than 20 years. But the Cincinnati-based multinational is suddenly facing a new kind of challenge as Russians become more politicized. Continue reading »

By Marianna Kozintseva of Morgan Stanley

Investors seem relatively unperturbed about the prospects of opposition protests in Russia following Vladimir Putin’s emergence as the high-margin winner of Russia’s presidential elections, with 63.6 per cent of the vote.

The victory, however, presents a challenge for Russia’s next president to deliver the reforms promised during the election campaign. Continue reading »

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich’s administration is bracing itself for the return of Vladimir Putin as president. It’s hoping the powerful Russian leader won’t kick off a third term by flexing his political muscle against its increasingly isolated and vulnerable neighbour.

Putin may not be as strong at home as he was in prior years. He faces the challenge of opposition forces seeking change and reforms. But even his domestic political foes are likely to back his main foreign policy agenda: asserting Moscow’s regional influence. Continue reading »

By Matthew Hulbert of Clingendael International Energy Programme

Quelle surprise: President Putin is back. But he has a problem – he isn’t very popular.

While eastern commentators are getting very excited about prospective reform packages, Putin is far more likely to revert to a far older method to sustain (and enhance) his tenure in the Kremlin: hydrocarbons. Like it or not, the relative success or failure of ‘Putin 2.0’ doesn’t depend on how far United Russia embraces political and economic reform, but where Russia stands as a global energy heavyweight in 2018. Continue reading »

The president-elect’s honeymoon with the markets didn’t last long. After marking up Russian equities on Monday following Vladimir Putin’s victory in Sunday’s polls, investors on Tuesday sold them off with a vengeance.

The anti-Putin street protests on Monday evening, the heavy police reaction, the slew of international media criticism – all have undermined confidence. As has the global markets sell-off prompted by fears of slowing growth in China. On Tuesday, the RTS index was down 3.3 per cent at the time of writing. Continue reading »

Investors clearly consider that Vladimir Putin’s resounding victory in the Russian presidential election is good for the Russian economy.

While emerging markets as a whole lost 1.4 per cent on Monday, the $-denominated RTS index gained 1.4 per cent. With the index up nearly 27 per cent this year, investors seem to be betting that the pre-election uncertainty will disappear and the economy will benefit from president-elect Putin’s strong mandate.  They may be disappointed. Continue reading »

By Viktor Szabo of Aberdeen Asset Management

While equity markets in Russia responded well to the news that Vladimir Putin has been elected once again to the office of president, the widespread claims of electoral fraud and the significant social unrest this may cause are only the beginning of the turbulence we are expecting to see this year. Continue reading »

Russian markets took Vladimir Putin’s 64 per cent victory in their stride on Monday, with the RTS index rising 0.6 per cent and the Micex up 0.4 per cent by lunchtime in Moscow.

Investors are clearly relieved that Russia has avoided the uncertainty of a second round of voting, which would have happened if Putin had secured less than 50 per cent of the vote. Nevertheless, traders will be keeping an eye on a major opposition rally planned in Moscow on Monday night to gauge the threat of political unrest ahead. Continue reading »

With over 99 per cent of Russia reporting, Vladimir Putin appears to have walked away from the Russian election with about 64 per cent of the vote. The news has already angered opposition leaders who point to numerous electoral violations, captured on video throughout the day and reported by monitoring groups, such as the League of Voters.

Much of the election day drama played out minute-by-minute on Twitter. Here is a recap of the day’s most debated topics: Continue reading »

Were those really tears running down Vladimir Putin’s cheeks? The returning Russian president has long nurtured a he-man image, but as he addressed thousands of supporters outside the Kremlin walls on Sunday night his voice was, unusually, cracking. Continue reading »

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