By David Mann, Standard Chartered
Economic ties around the world are evolving fast, even during the current period of relatively sluggish global growth. For Asia – the world’s most open region to trade – the question of which of the major economies matters most for external sector growth is critical.
If we just look at which economies dominate global growth, back in 2000, the answer to this question was clearly the US, and particularly the US consumer. The US economy accounted for a quarter of global GDP growth. Meanwhile, China accounted for just 7 per cent of world growth, despite its rapidly growing economy.
However, by 2014, the US share of global GDP growth had fallen to 16 per cent, whereas China’s share had risen to 30 per cent – despite the country’s slowdown. Read more
By Gordon French, HSBC
If Asia’s emerging markets are to avoid the middle income trap, they need to create foundations for the next phase of growth: they need to invest in infrastructure.
In the early stages of development, moving a worker from the land to a factory quadruples their value-added contribution to the economy on average. Much of Asia’s extraordinary growth to date has been underwritten by this one-off transition, but the windfall gains of rapid industrialisation are starting to decline and if the region is to continue on the road to prosperity it needs to find ways to boost productivity and encourage new economic activity. Read more
Nomura has released its Global Annual Economic Outlook for 2014, and its prognosis for Asia is interesting.
The investment bank states that the region’s economic leaders for the coming year will be: Korea, Malaysia and (despite a devastating typhoon) the Philippines. Read more
It is hardly surprising to see mixed economic views of a country or region. But these days, Asia has become a forecasters’ chop-suey of tasty and unpalatable tidbits.
While it boasts growing internal markets, strong capital inflows and still-impressive annual growth among some economies, the region remains vulnerable to global slowdowns, the whims of western central banks, natural disasters and inadequate regional co-operation. Among the growing stream of mixed messages on the region’s trajectory came the United Nations Economic and Social commission for Asia and the Pacific, launched on Friday in Bangkok. Read more
By Jake Maxwell Watts and Nguyen Phuong Linh
As construction starts on a controversial hydropower project in Laos, it becomes clearer by the day that this poor and underdeveloped country is likely to place its ambition to be the “battery of south-east Asia” above any cost to the environment – and that price will be considerable. Read more