By Christopher Granville, Director of Russia Research, Trusted Sources
For investors exposed to Russia and the wider market fall-out from Russia’s military move in the Crimea, it may be helpful to recall the lessons of a previous shock that threatened to undermine the investment case for Russia. The analogy I have in mind is the Yukos affair.
Then, as now, President Putin perceived a paramount interest that he decided to pursue regardless of the high costs to business and financial market confidence. Continue reading »
Ukraine’s parliament appointed in a near unanimous vote on Thursday afternoon Arseniy Yatseniuk, one of the country’s youngest but most experienced politicians, as prime minister to address a swiftly unfolding separatist threat in the autonomous republic of Crimea and a crumbling economy.
Addressing lawmakers nearly a week after Viktor Yanukovich was toppled from the presidency, the 39-year old political ally of recently released opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko said: “Today our country finds itself in one of its most difficult and historical moments.” Continue reading »
By Brian Mefford
The Ukrainian people, against all the odds, have won their freedom from tyranny. However, if concrete actions are not taken immediately, these new freedoms will dissipate as fast as support did for the disgraced former president, Viktor Yanukovich. Now is the time for the Parliament of Ukraine to take four forward steps to ensure that the country moves into Europe instead of sliding back into infighting and gridlock, as happened after the 2004 Orange Revolution. To avoid these mistakes, the ability of average Ukrainians to influence the process must be retained and these four forward steps accomplish that: Continue reading »
A falling currency, continuing protests – and a rival bailout?
There is no deal yet in place. But the US, EU and international financial institutions are, according to sources, holding “behind the scenes” talks to package financial assistance that would ensure “economic stability” in crisis-hit Ukraine (and here’s the rub) should a pro-western and reform-minded caretaker government be put in place.
There’s an “if” for you. Continue reading »
This is Ukraine’s $1bn sovereign bond maturing on June 4:
Source: Thomson Reuters
As bond yields soared, the Ukrainian hyrvnia slumped and CDS spreads widened on Friday as the country’s political crisis entered a new phase. Continue reading »
By Graham Stack of bne
Ukraine’s embattled president, Viktor Yanukovich, found himself facing a second front on January 23 as anti-government protesters stormed regional administrations across the west and centre of Ukraine. Ironically, the development came on a day when a ceasefire held between protesters and police in Kiev. While clashes in Kiev are spectacular but largely theatrical, overthrowing state administration in the regions could signal the start of the crumbling of Yanukovich’s power. Continue reading »
By Taras Kuzio of the University of Alberta
President Viktor Yanukovich after turning his back on the EU less than a month ago travelled to Moscow on Tuesday to sign agreements that closely bind Ukraine to Russia and Eurasia. Ukraine needs $15-20bn to rescue the country from an economic and financial tsunami brought on, in my view, by the government’s mismanagement and colossal asset stripping befitting a medieval occupation army. Continue reading »
By Lucan Way of the University of Toronto
I am in Kiev right now. It is truly an inspiring scene. The level of spontaneous self-organisation is truly unprecedented. No one who is here can help rooting for those on the street fighting for their ideals. The protests have been far less violent than other protests in the world, including the G20 protests in Toronto in 2010. Simultaneously, President Viktor Yanukovich is weak. His support has plummeted so much that polls show just about any opposition candidate winning against him a second round. His support from the oligarchs is also soft, as evidenced by the relatively balanced coverage on their TV channels. In 2004, only Channel 5 was presenting protests in a positive light. Now it is many channels. This suggests that oligarchs are reluctant to put all their chips on Yanukovich.
Nevertheless, in my view a sober analysis of the situation suggests that at least until 2015, Yanukovich has the clear advantage. Here is why: Continue reading »
By Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory
Newsflow from Kiev is changing almost by the hour but one factor has become clear: President Viktor Yanukovich’s hope of striking a deal with both Brussels and Moscow has all but gone. The resilience of the protesters in Kiev and the pressure coming from both the EU and Russia means that he is fast being forced into making a choice between east or west. There is no longer any possibility of playing one off against the other and the time remaining to make a choice is running out. Continue reading »
James Blitz, FT leader writer, and Neil Buckley, Eastern European editor, discuss the situation in the capital Kiev between anti-government protesters and riot police. As President Viktor Yanukovich fights for survival, pressure to compromise is increasing.
What’s next for Ukraine? None of the options available seems to offer much hope. Sign up with the EU/IMF? Too many conditions. Sign up with Russia’s rival customs union? Too much opposition on the streets. Muddle through? A looming balance of payments crisis makes this a short-term option at best.
Something clearly has to give. Maybe Pakistan’s recent experience with the IMF offers some pointers as to what and how. Continue reading »
By Elżbieta Kaca and Ievgen Vorobiov of PISM
The crisis in Ukraine shows no sign of abating. As the authorities have deployed massive police force to clear the barricades around Kiev’s government quarter and on the Maidan, the protesters have no intention of leaving the streets. The opposition’s rigid conditions for further negotiations – punishing the perpetrators of a violent police clampdown, releasing the arrested protesters and sacking the government – have fallen on deaf ears. Despite the presence of foreign mediators, early on Wednesday police moved in to try to disperse the protests in the heart of Kiev. Continue reading »
Anyone watching the 20-day-old street protests in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities cannot help but be impressed by the movement’s coordination and organisation.
No sooner had Victor Yanukovich, Ukraine’s president, pulled back from signing a promised agreement with the European Union and inched closer to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s customs union, than full scale stages and tent encampments sprang up in the centre of Kiev. Continue reading »
The cost of insuring against default on Ukrainian debt hit new highs on Tuesday as tension rose over an increasingly edgy stand-off between demonstrators and security forces in Kiev.
Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine’s president, was due to meet three former presidents on Tuesday to find a compromise solution. But on Monday, as he announced the meeting, security forces launched a series of raids on opposition media and politicians, including the offices of the party of Yulia Tymoshenko, the jailed opposition leader and former prime minister. Continue reading »
Reports from Kiev say opposition party headquarters have been raided by government troops and independent media outlets taken off the air. Meanwhile, in what looked like a conciliatory move, President Viktor Yanukovich said he would meet three former presidents on Tuesday to find a compromise to Ukraine’s rapidly-deteriorating political crisis.
It looks like a high-stakes version of muddle-through, the strategy that has kept Yanukovich in power as Ukraine’s economy has sunk into recession. But how long can the president last? Continue reading »