Remember the Azores "war summit" of 2003, on the eve of the Iraq war? Since that meeting on the windswept Atlantic islands the curse of Iraq has struck down most of its participants: George Bush and Tony Blair are heading out of office haunted by the unfolding disaster on the Euphrates, while Jose Maria Aznar is already gone.

But what about the fourth participant, the host Jose Manuel Barroso, the hitherto little-known Portuguese prime minister, lurking almost unnoticed on the edge of camera shot? He’s still going strong, and now as European Commission president he wants a favour returned by his old buddy, President Bush.

What can he expect from his trip to the White House on January 8? Surprisingly he is travelling in hope that Mr Bush might make some moves in a European direction on two key issues: kickstarting the Doha trade round and starting to take climate change seriously.

Why the optimism? People in the Barroso team believe that President Bush is eyeing his legacy and that reviving Doha might help remove some of the stain of Iraq from his international record.

How about the new and apparently protectionist Democrat-dominated Congress? "Do you think that if Bush comes up with a Doha proposal which is good for development and trade that the Democrats will say No?" asks one EU official. "They are multi-lateralists after all."

What about climate change? Back-channels to Brussels - including private reports from Tony Blair’s recent meeting with President Bush - suggest the White House is taking the issue more seriously. This is less about polar bears and more about economics: after all the US, like Europe, has the same problem: dependency on expensive energy imports from unstable parts of the world.

Hence the upbeat tone of Mr Barroso’s upbeat comments before leaving for DC. And perhaps Mr Bush owes the Portuguese a favour as the only one of the Azores summiteers with a political career ahead of him?

January 5th, 2007 in Commission | Permalink