January 8, 2007
Brown’s Basra Surprise
Just before Christmas, I went on a daytrip to Iraq. I was part of the press pack following Tony Blair around and, although the other journalists and I gave pretty short shrift to the prime minister’s whole Middle East trip, it was, in many ways, an illuminating experience.
For example, there was the sight of Blair’s top advisers donning helmets and body armour to visit a country that was supposedly liberated three and a half years ago. And there was the prime minister himself, seemingly tired and stressed on what could turn out to be his last official trip to Iraq, evidently relieved when his Hercules aircraft left Baghdad and Basra behind it and headed for Tel Aviv.
The trip also raised an intriguing possibility for the future of British and European foreign policy.
While in Basra, Blair was briefed on the progress of "operation Sinbad" , the British army’s attempt to stabilise the south and help Iraqi forces take over responsibility. UK officials say the plan is about half completed and will be concluded in the next few months.
Now everyone expects Gordon Brown to take over from Blair in May or June this year – not so long after Sinbad is supposed to be wound up. The new prime minister could be very well placed to announce an immediate withdrawal of a good number of Britain’s 7,200 troops – with many others to follow by, say, the end of the year. It would be an eye-catching way for Brown to draw a line under the Blair years and reconnect with angry Labour voters.
On Sunday, Brown signaled his intentions pretty clearly, telling a BBC interviewer that “by the end of the year, there may be thousands less in Iraq than there are now.”
A big pullout would not greatly interfere with military plans, since after Sinbad is completed British troops would be hunkered down in their bases rather than on the streets of Basra. Indeed , it would come as a welcome relief to the hard pressed British army. Nor would the Bush administration, desperate to keep what allies it has, be in a strong way to object as long as the issue was handled tactfully.
Such a step would also follow a western Europe trend of disengagement. Spain’s Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero removed his troops on taking office, as did Romano Prodi of Italy . Might Gordon Brown become the latest European leader to kickstart his government by getting out of Iraq?
