January 11, 2007
Merkel’s Mid-East gamble
On a lightning visit to Berlin last year, I discovered that Germany is groaning with plans for its six month long presidency of the EU. One theme struck me in particular: Angela Merkel’s improbable ambition to bring hope to the Middle East. You might not believe it, but this is an issue where the German chancellor really thinks she can make a difference.
Like many other European states, Germany feels strongly that the US ought to do more with its international partners to broker a deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
That’s why Merkel told the FT she wanted to revive the Quartet, the body made up of the US, the EU, Russia and the United Nations that is supposed to work for Middle East peace.
Meeting Ms Merkel last week, President George W. Bush damned her initiative with faint praise. “I think the Quartet ought to meet at an appropriate time,” he said, unencouragingly.
It’s true that the US is slightly happier about working on the Middle East with Europe now that the EU chair is occupied by Germany rather than Finland, the previous presidency. (After all, Finland’s foreign minister does wear a nuclear disarmament badge on his lapel.)
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is also going to the region in the next few days – and will discuss the Middle East with her EU and Nato counterparts at the end of the month. On Wednesday, Tony Blair, British prime minister, said he hoped there would be a Quartet meeting "in the next few weeks". But to date there has been little sign that the US really thinks there’s much point in working out its policy in conjunction with the EU, Russia and the UN. Mr Bush’s address on the Iraq war on Wednesday night made clear the US still believes in a fundamentally military approach to the problems of the Middle East.
The Quartet’s last significant move came after Hamas stormed to victory in Palestinian elections last January. The initial response of Britain, France and Germany had been a cautious one, emphasising the importance of Hamas observing a ceasefire. But US pressure toughened up the final Quartet position, so that it included the precondition that the new Palestinian government recognise Israel.
At present, the international community is putting all its bets on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Last month, in the wake of sustained pressure from the US and Israel, which desperately want to dislodge Hamas, Mr Abbas convoked parliamentary elections. It’s not clear that the vote will ever take place, since Mr Abbas’ decision may not have been within his constitutional powers.
But, to reward him, Israel has released some Palestinian funds. It has even allowed Egypt to supply his presidential guard with arms and ammunition. Is it a sensible idea for the world at large to so obviously take sides in what could become a Palestinian civil war? When the EU and the US finally do get to talk about the Middle East, that might be a good question for Germany to ask.
