March 21, 2007
Brown: he can do a budget, but can he work Brussels?
Gordon Brown knows how to deliver a budget. His last financial statement in the House of Commons on Wednesday contained the usual bullish economic optimism (of course) and a surprise: a cut in the basic rate of income tax.
So much we know. For all the criticism of Mr Brown’s personal style, his macro-economic record in the UK is envied by many in Europe. But can Mr Brown, prime minister-in-waiting, translate his economic standing into real influence in Brussels?
There are signs that Mr Brown is starting to take Europe more seriously. His lieutenant, Treasury minister Ed Balls, has been a regular visitor to Brussels projecting a less abrasive face than that usually seen from the chancellor’s camp.
Meanwhile Mr Brown has sent out signals he is at last willing to end his stand-off with all 26 other EU member states over the way the British budget rebate is calculated - a dispute which one diplomat claimed had the potential to escalate into a major row.
The chancellor’s personal style - described memorably by Britain’s former top civil servant as "Stalinist" - is not ideally suited to working in the EU, with its consensus-building and intellectually unsatisfactory fudges.
But he knows that as prime minister he will have little choice but to work within the European system. To that effect, Jose Manuel Barroso, European Commission, has been wooing him to persuade him that he has a vital role to play in Europe.
Mr Barroso has seen Mr Brown privately several times and Angela Merkel, German chancellor, has also met him. The three believe they can forge a common front in promoting an agenda which the chancellor can feel comfortable with: liberal reforms, better regulation and budget reform (including cutting farm subsidies).
If Nicolas Sarkozy is elected as French president, Mr Barroso believes that triangular relationship could be extended to Paris. For all Mr Sarkozy’s dirigiste and populist tendencies, he is probably the best hope for Europe’s modernisers.
Mr Brown has a lot of doubts to overcome among his European partners, some of whom view him as hectoring and eurosceptic. But there are some signs that he will at least make an effort, if (or when) he becomes prime minister in June.
Whatever Brown’s policy priorities turn out to be, I have my doubts about his prospects as PM prmarily because he is such an unlikeable character.
Anyway let’s hope he is more effective than Blair, who was all talk and no trousers.
Posted by: Chris Sherwood | March 22nd, 2007 at 11:09 am | Report this comment