March 12, 2008
Medvedev - nice smile, iron teeth?
According to a joke doing the rounds in Brussels, two Eurocrats are discussing the EU’s Russia policy. “ I wonder what are things going to be like after President Putin,” says one. “Hard to say,” replies the other. “A lot will depend on the new prime minister.”The new prime minister will, of course, be none other than Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president for the past eight years.
To some, that suggests little immediate change in the truculent tone of Russia’s dealings with the EU over recent years. Putin himself told German chancellor Angela Merkel last Saturday that Dmitry Medvedev, his hand-picked successor, would defend Russia’s interests just as strongly as he has done.
For many in Brussels and other EU capitals, trained as they are to think of nationalism as a Bad Thing, shudders surely went up their spines when they heard Putin describe Medvedev as “no less a nationalist – in the good sense of the word – than I am”.Still, Medvedev is no more a Putin clone than Putin was a clone of Boris Yeltsin. It is my belief that, after a certain spell of time, we will see a difference in Russian policies – starting with domestic matters such as state administration, economic innovation and social policy, and gradually extending to Russia’s role on the world stage.
It should come as no surprise that Putin played up Medvedev’s tough qualities. I vividly recall being in Moscow in 1985 when Andrei Gromyko, the long-serving Soviet foreign minister, recommended Mikhail Gorbachev for the Communist Party leadership after Konstantin Chernenko’s death. “Comrades,” Gromyko said of Gorbachev, “this man has a nice smile but he has teeth of iron.”This is not to say that Medvedev is a closet liberal whose heartfelt wish is to emulate Gorbachev.
Do not forget that, for many Russians, the Gorbachev era is remembered as a time not only of new and exciting freedoms and the end of the Cold War, but of economic chaos, food shortages, a totally misconceived anti-alcohol campaign, rising nationalism, violent separatism, public disorder and, in the end, the collapse of the Soviet Union. Medvedev will take lessons from that experience just as much as from the corruption and continuing economic upheavals of the Yeltsin era. As chairman of Gazprom, he can hardly be unaware that Russia’s economic revival under Putin owes almost everything to a bonanza in oil and gas revenues, and little to modernisation and innovation in Russia’s industrial and service sectors.
All this supports the argument that Medvedev will introduce changes – to the Russian economy, to the Russian state’s treatment of its citizens, and in time perhaps to Russian foreign policy. But he will do it in his own, very personal, very Russian way.
You are perfectly right in your analysis.
I think it is mere wishful thinking for anyone to think that Medvedev is going to come in and do a remake of the Putin policies for several reasons.
First, he has to rely on Putin (his mentor) to help him solidify his power and gain respect both at home and abroad particularly since he is inevitably going to for a while to be surrounded by and watched over the shoulder by powerful security men whom only Putin can control.
Secondly, as far as I know, Putin will be the leader of the powerful leader of the powerful United Russia - which with its tight grip on the Federation Council and Duma can effectively change the constitution and clip Medvedev’s wings if he seems to be going out of step with Putin and get Putin back in power either by giving him more power as prime minister or allowing a special election to allow Putin back as President.
Third, like it not, the majority people in Russia love and only know Putin and can at a moments’ notice start a revolution to get Putin back in power if Medvedev seems to be disrespecting the known godfather of Russia - Putin.
Fourth, Medvedev is not stupid - particularly as a lawyer. He remembers how the West treated Yeltsin and Russia with such disrespect when Yeltsin bent down and followed their orders - which gained him nor Russia anything but contempt.
The list can go on but the point is: there will be economic and social changes but foreign policy will change little - that will remain in Putin’s tight grip. NATO expansion and missile defenses in Poland will play the biggest role in Russia’s foreign policy.
Posted by: Julius | March 16th, 2008 at 9:17 pm | Report this comment