June 11, 2008
Yes camp’s bravado versus No camp’s confidence
Perhaps it’s just bravado, or the effects of one extra Guinness for the road, but the Yes camp appears less nervous than you might think. On Tuesday night, only 36 hours before the polls open for Ireland’s referendum on the European Union’s Lisbon treaty, an adviser to an Irish government minister reviewed the state of the world from his seat in a Dublin bar and confided that he expected a 52 to 48 per cent victory for the pro-Lisbon forces.
This morning, I put his forecast to a prominent businessman in the Irish capital. “Oh really? I’d heard 53 to 47,” he replied.
Whether either of these predictions owes anything to the private polling that is being conducted around the Emerald Isle is not entirely clear. The No camp, for its part, has a point when it says the most recent published polls show the anti-Lisbon vote steadily going up. “We’re not taking a single vote for granted,” says Declan Ganley, the leader of the anti-Lisbon Libertas movement.
By common consent, a great deal depends on the turn-out. It was the low turn-out of about 35 per cent that caused the upset No vote in Ireland’s referendum on the EU’s Nice treaty in June 2001. When the Irish voted again on the treaty in October 2002, the turn-out was 49 per cent and the result was a convincing Yes victory.
On Thursday, experts say that a turn-out of 45 per cent or more of Ireland’s 3.05m voters should be sufficient for the Lisbon treaty to squeeze through.
But it may not be quite so simple. According to an Irish Times poll published on June 6, 70 per cent of respondents said they were very likely to vote in the referendum. Even if such a high turn-out is improbable, some analysts say that much “soft opinion” - people who are not especially pro -or anti-European and who may not even have decided whether to bother to vote on Thursday - is trending in a No direction.
If this is so, a high turn-out - say, between 60 and 70 per cent - may not work to the advantage of the Yes forces. “As things stand, we may very well see a situation where a very low turn-out favours the No side, a medium turn-out favours the Yes side, and a very large turn-out might just favour the No side,” writes Harry McGee of the Irish Times political staff.
We in the UK have been denied the choice - please vote NO. It’s time the EU was put in it’s place. It’s also time for the UK to withdraw altogether.
Posted by: Ray | June 11th, 2008 at 4:06 pm | Report this commentIt is disappointing that Tony Barber began his op-ed piece concerning the upcoming referendum in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty with a hackneyed stereotype concerning Irish alcohol consumption. Of course the adviser to an Irish Government minister was in a bar; he is, afterall, well, Irish. Mr. Barber would be better served addressing the real issues in this debate and avoid offensive stereotypes, no matter how subtle or covert they may be.
Posted by: James Feeney | June 11th, 2008 at 10:30 pm | Report this commentHow awful - Barber couldn’t even clear the first sentence without a smugly patronising and gratuitous reference to an offensive stereotype that has absolutely no relation whatsoever to the subject at hand.
Posted by: Barry | June 12th, 2008 at 9:19 am | Report this commentI find this statement both lazy, journalistically speaking, as well as offensive. Why does the FT find it necessary to headline almost all Ireland-related topics with references to alcohol consumption? Does the FT think Irish people – politicians and voters alike – are incapable of discussing the Lisbon Treaty in a sober fashion? It is depressing that a supposedly serious newspaper should resort to such hackneyed, racist slurs. Does the author seriously expect a response to the actual issue with an opening salvo like that? If so, he is seriously delusional as well as frighteningly immature.
Posted by: G Curran | June 12th, 2008 at 10:57 am | Report this commentThe Daily Mail offered today to raise a ‘pint of the black stuff’ to Ireland if it votes no. Well I can’t imagine the FT would want to be seen in the same league as the Dail Mail in any stakes, least of all in promoting racial slurs - Tony Barber should be embarassed.
Posted by: James Hart | June 12th, 2008 at 11:06 am | Report this commentI am puzzled by Tony Barber’s comments. I was under the impression that the FT was a reputable paper. So, why did Tony Barber feel the need to damage his reputation by engaging in racial slurs and tabloid press antics? The rest of the world has moved on, I suggest Tony Barber follows, quickly.
Posted by: R Graham | June 12th, 2008 at 12:01 pm | Report this commentGo on Ireland, make my day by voting ‘No’ to the Lisbon Treaty! Please accept my heart-felt “Thank You” in advance!
Posted by: Black Tom Strafford | June 12th, 2008 at 1:21 pm | Report this commentPerhaps it’s just laziness, or the inability to pass up one extra stereotype for the road, but Tony Barber appears less of a serious journalist than you might think…
Posted by: J Staunton | June 12th, 2008 at 6:31 pm | Report this commentWhy are FT writers simply incapable of discussing any issue relating to Ireland without inevitably reaching for tired old cliches about stout consumption? Come on FT, if you insist on belittling us please try and be more inventive, relevant and witty.