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Bosnia divides the EU - again
October 8, 2008
Russia’s invasion and de facto partition of Georgia in August sparked uproar across Europe, or so it is said. In reality, many European Union countries were soon itching to restore relations with the Kremlin to normal as soon as was decently possible. And on a second issue critical to Europe’s security - the future of Bosnia-Herzegovina - many EU capitals have more in common with Moscow than is comfortable for them to admit.
Thirteen years after the US-brokered Dayton agreement ended the 1992-95 civil war, Bosnia is at peace but barely qualifies as a functioning state. Its two halves, the Muslim-Croat federation and the Serb Republic, co-operate as little as possible. Its two main nationalities, the Bosnian Muslims and Bosnian Serbs, are as alienated from each other as ever, a point illustrated by last weekend’s local elections across the country.
The EU’s influence in Bosnia has steadily declined, partly because the bloc has concentrated its regional efforts on Serbia and the Kosovo problem. “The political situation is Bosnia is even worse now than it was two years ago. Our ability to change it has been severely damaged,” says one EU policymaker.
This is where Russia comes in. Moscow, which for its own reasons tends to side with the Bosnian Serbs, is not eager to extend the mandate of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia. Under the 1995 Dayton accord, the OHR is the international authority responsible for overseeing Bosnian affairs.
The High Representative - at present, Miroslav Lajcak of Slovakia - doubles as the EU’s special representative in Bosnia. It is fair to say that, without the OHR, Bosnia would be even more unstable than it is now.
Unlike Moscow, Washington would like to see the OHR stay in place. The US sees Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader, as a troublemaker and it is anxious not to see Bosnia descend once more into disorder.
The EU’s 27 countries are divided. But some, such as France, Germany and Italy, think the OHR is a broken instrument beyond hope of repair. Instinctively, they are on the same side of the argument as Russia.
In a month’s time, everyone will have to show their hand at a meeting of the international Steering Board that supervises the Dayton accord. Is it conceivable that the EU will formulate a position that is aligned with Russia and against the US?
Probably not. The UK, and some former communist countries in central and eastern Europe, would surely not allow it. But the Bosnia problem is a reminder of how, even on its own doorstep, the EU finds it excruciatingly hard to run a common foreign policy.
Europe, I have news for you. The US may be crying about “foreign oil” dominating our country, but you are the natural gas and oil slaves of Russia. Do not just ignore your shackles for fear of the whip, break free of them! It’s not like we wouldn’t back you up here.
Posted by: R Schloemer | October 8th, 2008 at 4:34 pm | Report this commentThe problem is a bigger one . This is not only abotu Russia v USA, although it is tempting to see things this way in the post-Georgia light. It is about a broader failure of the international community to deal with the country’s divisions.
The European Council on Foreign Relations blew the whistle on this back in summer, but few in any of the European capitals appear to listen:
Posted by: Milos B | October 8th, 2008 at 4:50 pm | Report this commenthttp://www.ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_the_eu_bosnia/
Let’s admit it, most continental Europeans are wary of the European descendants of the Ottomans. It was not long ago that the Ottomans knocked on the gates of Vienna. If the US hadn’t pushed the EU, it would not have got involved in Bosnia. www.winnowed.blogspot.com
Posted by: Vinod Joseph | October 9th, 2008 at 6:14 am | Report this commentWe cannot ignore that some progress has been made in Bosnia in stabilizing the country. But the international community and EU in particular, should be blamed for the current situation. Rewarding the genocide committed by Serbs, the dived the country along the national line, imposed the Dayton accord with its Constitution impossible to function, providing Serbs to block any decision and progress in Bosnia.
Posted by: Rohas R. | October 9th, 2008 at 3:19 pm | Report this commentMr. Paddy Ashdown better than any pre- and post- High Representative, did something to improve the situation, but failed in some most important matters – to form a unified police and to work on the constitution. Perhaps the international community was not interested in it. Now, when Bosnia is at the door of the EU integration, among other requirements is also the new constitution. However, PM Dodik of Republic of Srpska, one of the entities, has deeply rooted his infectious nationalism that it is necessary to organize another Conference on Bosnia to resolve this problem, otherwise the situation is becoming worse and worse.
I can not understand, why it is so hard for EU and the US to understand, that the only logical solution is in federalization of BH. And please do not constantly call the country “Bosnia”. It is “Bosnia and Herzegovina”, or for space saving call it the “BH”.There are only two nationalities in BH namely Serb and Croat. Even if we accept the muslim religion population as Muslim nationality (which Tito had created by a decree), then it would be logical to create three federal states, with or without the right to seceed. Besides, look at old maps of the region, even in Tito”s Yugoslavia. There was a region clearly marked as “Herzegovina”, with other regions in the surrounding area, that of “Kosmet” (Kosovo and Metohija) and Sandjak. They had better reflected the distribution of the ethnic groups. And until EU and USA do not recognize this, and either federalize the BH into three sates, or if it shows to be more promising, into few more cantons, closely resembling the Swiss federation, and not falling under the pressure from the muslim nations (oil rich), BH will never become a state.
Posted by: Aurelius von Krebs | October 12th, 2008 at 8:32 pm | Report this commentI’m pleased that we agree with Rusia for once, in relation to the OHR. This is a step in the right direction
Posted by: Tatishev, Builder | October 13th, 2008 at 7:55 pm | Report this comment>> Let’s admit it, most continental Europeans are wary of the European descendants of the Ottomans
That is a little harsh to say about Serbs. As DNA show Bosniaks actually have an insane amount amount of indigenous DNA so you must be talking about the Serbs.
The borders set by the worst genocide since WWII cannot be final. If Bosnian Serbs don’t like it, they can go back to Serbia (that’s an argument Serbs used against indigenous Albanians)
Posted by: Alban | October 14th, 2008 at 4:21 am | Report this comment