Russia’s invasion and de facto partition of Georgia in August sparked uproar across Europe, or so it is said. In reality, many European Union countries were soon itching to restore relations with the Kremlin to normal as soon as was decently possible. And on a second issue critical to Europe’s security - the future of Bosnia-Herzegovina - many EU capitals have more in common with Moscow than is comfortable for them to admit.

Thirteen years after the US-brokered Dayton agreement ended the 1992-95 civil war, Bosnia is at peace but barely qualifies as a functioning state. Its two halves, the Muslim-Croat federation and the Serb Republic, co-operate as little as possible. Its two main nationalities, the Bosnian Muslims and Bosnian Serbs, are as alienated from each other as ever, a point illustrated by last weekend’s local elections across the country.

The EU’s influence in Bosnia has steadily declined, partly because the bloc has concentrated its regional efforts on Serbia and the Kosovo problem. “The political situation is Bosnia is even worse now than it was two years ago. Our ability to change it has been severely damaged,” says one EU policymaker.

This is where Russia comes in. Moscow, which for its own reasons tends to side with the Bosnian Serbs, is not eager to extend the mandate of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia. Under the 1995 Dayton accord, the OHR is the international authority responsible for overseeing Bosnian affairs.

The High Representative - at present, Miroslav Lajcak of Slovakia - doubles as the EU’s special representative in Bosnia. It is fair to say that, without the OHR, Bosnia would be even more unstable than it is now.

Unlike Moscow, Washington would like to see the OHR stay in place. The US sees Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader, as a troublemaker and it is anxious not to see Bosnia descend once more into disorder.

The EU’s 27 countries are divided. But some, such as France, Germany and Italy, think the OHR is a broken instrument beyond hope of repair. Instinctively, they are on the same side of the argument as Russia.

In a month’s time, everyone will have to show their hand at a meeting of the international Steering Board that supervises the Dayton accord. Is it conceivable that the EU will formulate a position that is aligned with Russia and against the US?

Probably not. The UK, and some former communist countries in central and eastern Europe, would surely not allow it. But the Bosnia problem is a reminder of how, even on its own doorstep, the EU finds it excruciatingly hard to run a common foreign policy.

October 8, 2008 10:27am in Balkans, Foreign policy, Russia, US | Comment