The European Commission’s latest annual report on Turkey is striking for its kind words on Turkish foreign policy and its harsher language on internal Turkish political developments. It describes progress in some areas towards meeting the criteria for joining the European Union, and little or no progress in others.
In short, there is something for those who want Turkey one day to be in the EU, something for those who do not, and a lot for those who prefer to let the whole thing just drift along.
On foreign policy, the Commission welcomes Turkey’s mediation efforts between Israel and Syria. It praises President Abdullah Gül for breaking the ice in relations with Armenia by making the first visit to Yerevan by a Turkish head of state. It also recognises Turkey’s constructive role in proposing a Caucasus stability accord to ease regional tensions after Russia’s invasion of Georgia.
On domestic affairs, though, the tone is different. “Despite its strong political mandate, the government did not put forward a consistent and comprehensive programme of political reforms… Overall, there has been limited progress on public administration reform… No progress has been made on strengthening parliamentary oversight of the military budget… The government has failed to prepare a comprehensive anti-corruption strategy…” And so on.
The truth is that Turkey’s accession negotiations are stuck in a rut. They started in October 2005, but out of the 35 chapters, or policy areas, that must be completed before a candidate country can join, Turkey and the EU have opened only eight. Another eight were frozen in December 2006 because of Turkey’s refusal to open its trade to vessels from Cyprus. Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel and other leaders scarcely disguise their opposition to full Turkish EU membership.
All this is taking its toll on Turkey’s traditionally pro-western political and business elites and on Turkish public opinion in general. Turkey has been diversifying its diplomatic and commercial relations and engaging more actively with its closest neighbours, with the Turkic world of Central Asia and, increasingly, with Russia.
Too many EU leaders give the impression of using a 30-year-old mental map of the world in which Turkey is just some turbulent, backward appendage to the south-eastern corner of Europe. In Ankara or Istanbul, such condescension does not go down well.
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