Turkey should almost be pleased. On Friday the European Union agreed to open two new “chapters”, or policy areas, in Turkey’s EU accession negotiations – on the free movement of capital and on information society and the media. The Czech Republic, which takes over the EU’s rotating presidency from France on January 1, hopes to open two more chapters during its six-month spell in charge.
So out of the 35 chapters that need to be completed before a country can join the EU, Turkey now has 10 open and could have 12 open by June 30. Whoopee! At this rate, all 35 will be open by some time in 2015. Except, of course, that certain western European governments have no intention of letting Turkey into the EU at all. Moreover, eight of Turkey’s negotiating chapters were frozen two years ago because the EU disapproves of Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airports to trade with Cyprus. All in all, far from moving steadily forwards, Turkey’s accession talks are going nowhere fast.
Still, at least Turkey is under fewer and fewer illusions about where things really stand. With Croatia, there is less certainty. Quarrels with Slovenia, its former fellow-Yugoslav republic, meant that the EU on Friday concluded only three chapters with Croatia and opened one more. Slovenia blocked further progress.
This was a bitter blow for Croatia, which had wanted to conclude five chapters, open 10, and race ahead to completing its EU entry talks by next December, with a view to becoming a full member-state in 2011. Instead, Croatia now has concluded only 7 of the 35 chapters, with another 15 open and 13 more still to be launched. Finishing these talks inside the next 12 months is starting to look like a very tall task.
Then there is Serbia. A report by the United Nations war crimes prosecutor this month made it clear that, even if Serbian co-operation with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague had improved, it ought to be even better. The arrest of Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb general accused of genocide, would do the trick. But as long as he remains at large, the Dutch government won’t lift its block on closer Serbian association with the EU.
Macedonia is stuck, too – over that wearisome dispute with Greece about what its name should be. As for Bosnia-Herzegovina, it will be something of an achievement if it hangs together as a state, never mind about joining the EU. And when Montenegro officially presented its membership application on Monday, there were mutterings on the EU side that this was much too premature.
Some people put these problems down to “enlargement fatigue” in the EU’s older member-states. I don’t know if they’re right. But it certainly looks as if, as far as concerns enlargement, everyone can settle down to a good long sleep in 2009.
Across the globe: Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs on