I was talking this week with Graham Watson, leader of the liberal group in the European Parliament, about the forthcoming elections to the legislature, and I was struck by two points he made.

“The European Parliament is now the most powerful institution in the European Union, but hasn’t recognised it,” he said. And later on: ”The big question about the elections is, is the turnout going to slip further? I think not, and it may even start climbing again.”

There’s an important and disturbing connection between the parliament’s increasing powers and the falling voter turnout. It seems, paradoxically, that the more powerful the legislature becomes, the less people can be bothered to elect its members. Turnout has dropped at all five European elections since the first such ballot in 1979 (63 per cent then, 45.7 per cent in 2004).

Legislators understand the problem, which explains why the parliament’s website has a section for voters setting out ”10 good reasons to vote” in next June’s elections. Good Reason No. 6 spells out the reality of lawmaking in today’s EU: “Many, probably most, laws enacted in your country are a transposition of European acts voted by MEPs.”

So why are fewer people voting? Some research by Anna Olsson, of the Department of Government at American University in Washington, throws light on the subject. A country with high turnouts in national elections will have relatively high turnouts in European Parliament elections. Turnouts will be higher in countries where the European elections are held on Sundays rather than weekdays. And surprise, surprise, countries where voting is mandatory - such as Belgium - will have high turnouts.

Here’s where it gets interesting, though. Olsson cautions that one must not jump to the conclusion that more pro-EU attitudes among citizens are associated with higher turnouts. It is true, she says, but statistically not very important: it takes a 6 percentage point increase in the EU’s popularity to produce a 1 percentage point increase in turnout.

A better indicator, she suggests, is whether or not a country has held the EU’s rotating presidency in the 12 months before the election. Holding the presidency generates positive publicity and can raise turnout by about 6.5 percentage points, she says.

Well, we shall see. Slovenia, which held the presidency last year, and the Czech Republic, the present holder, both recorded miserable turnouts of 28.3 per cent in the 2004 election - though not as low as Slovakia, holder of the all-time national low of 17 per cent.

To conclude, I leave you with the European Parliament website’s Good Reason No. 1 to vote: “Get the Europe you want! If you don’t vote, don’t complain.”

Complain about the European Parliament? Perish the thought.

January 28, 2009 1:34pm in Elections 2009, European Parliament | Comment