Brussels blog

Well, that’s a good start, isn’t it?  The Netherlands was the first of the European Union’s 27 countries to release exit polls on how its citizens voted in the European Parliament elections.  And guess what?  The Party For Freedom (PVV), a right-wing anti-immigration party led by the anti-Islamic populist Geert Wilders, is expected to finish second with more than 15 per cent of the vote and at least four of the 25 Dutch seats in the EU legislature.

In truth, people outside the Netherlands shouldn’t be surprised by the PVV’s success.  Wilders has been riding high in Dutch opinion polls for quite some time.  Back in March, one survey even suggested that his party would become the biggest party in the Dutch parliament if an immediate election were held.

Over the past 10 years, the Dutch people have become increasingly doubtful about the direction in which the EU appears to be going.  Four years ago the Dutch overwhelmingly voted No in a referendum on the EU’s planned constitutional treaty.  Last April, a poll carried out by the market research group TNS NIPO showed that 60 per cent of the Dutch thought the EU institutions were a waste of public money.  

But the distinctively Dutch version of “euroscepticism” also reflects the way that Islam and immigration have surged to the front of political debate in a country that celebrates tolerance and cultural diversity, but sees them as under threat from immigrants who despise such ideals.  The spectacular political career of Pim Fortuyn, cut short when he was assassinated in the Dutch 2002 general election campaign, formed part of this picture.  So did the murder of Theo van Gogh, the film-maker killed by a radical Islamist of Dutch-Moroccan nationality in 2004.

There was a lot of popular dissatisfaction for Wilders to exploit in this European Parliament election campaign, and he did so fairly successfully.  But one should remember that the Dutch turnout was low – about 40 per cent – and the great majority of Dutch voters did not cast ballots for Wilders or other extremists.  So this is not a catastrophe for democracy.  It is, however, an embarrassment and a warning signal.