It’s election day in Europe, but in certain respects the most important events are taking place outside the voting booths.
According to a RTE/Sunday Independent opinion poll in Ireland, supporters of the European Union’s Lisbon treaty will defeat opponents by a margin of 54 per cent to 28 per cent (with 18 per cent undecided) when the treaty is submitted to a second referendum, probably in October. Such a thumping victory would not only reverse but for all practical purposes bury the memory of Irish voters’ rejection of the treaty in June 2008.
Does this mean, then, that the treaty is set fair to come into effect on January 1, 2010, as almost all EU leaders hope? Not quite. The political turmoil in the UK is changing the equation.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government ratified the treaty last year. But the opposition Conservatives have steadfastly opposed it and warned that, should they win power in the UK’s next election, due within a year, they will not meekly let things stand as they are. Recently, this position has threatened to harden into a determination to hold a referendum even if all 27 EU member-states have approved the treaty by the time the Tories enter government.
This may strike other EU governments as a wholly unreasonable and even legally dubious stance. But consider the following possibility. In the Czech Republic, parliament has passed Lisbon after a long political struggle but President Vaclav Klaus, who intensely dislikes the treaty, has refused to add his signature, as Czech law requires. So, too has President Lech Kaczynski of Poland. As long as they hold out, Lisbon cannot come into force.
Other things being equal, both men would probably find it impossible to resist the pressure to sign Lisbon, if Irish voters were to say Yes to the treaty in October. But other things are not equal. Klaus and Kaczynski are looking at events in London and asking themselves how long it will be before Brown’s government is out of office and replaced by a Conservative government that sees eye to eye with them on Lisbon.
Given the near-certainty that the Tories will win the next election, Klaus and Kaczynski have every incentive to sit tight and not sign the treaty. Then the Tories will come to power and hold a referendum in which British voters will (so everyone assumes) reject Lisbon. Hey, presto! Lisbon is well and truly dead.
This is the real nightmare of EU leaders – not the expected low turnout in the European Parliament elections.
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