I’m in Hamburg today wondering what would happen if next Sunday’s German election were to produce not some messy, inconclusive result, but a clear-cut victory for one party or the other in the ruling Christian Democrat-Social Democrat grand coalition. What might this mean for the allocation of top jobs in the European Union?
Of course, unless the opinion polls are wildly wrong, it is inconceivable that the Social Democrats will emerge as the largest party in the Bundestag. The post-reunification fissures of the German left seem to have doomed the SPD to second place in perpetuity behind the Christian Democrats. But if the inconceivable were to happen, then Angela Merkel would no longer be chancellor and would presumably be looking for a new challenge and a new job.
If she were interested in becoming the EU’s first permanent president – a post that is due to be created early next year, assuming that the Lisbon treaty gets the go-ahead – then it would surely be hers for the taking. Most of her fellow EU leaders respect her practical, common-sense style of leadership. She knows her own mind but is not overbearing. She is consensual but not dull. And as a woman politician from the former communist half of Europe, she would be an inspired choice.
But here’s the thing. She would never dream of accepting the job – at least, so my friends in German politics tell me.
What about Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the SPD foreign minister and candidate for chancellor? If his party were to crash in flames next Sunday, wouldn’t he be a good choice to be the EU’s next head of foreign policy – a job that the Lisbon treaty invests with more authority than it possesses now?
Perhaps – though some countries might worry that he wouldn’t strike the right balance between friendship and firmness in relations with Russia. But here’s the second thing. Few people I know in German politics think he yearns for the EU foreign policy job.
The message I’m getting in Germany is that, when it comes to power and prestige, both Merkel and Steinmeier prefer the national stage to the EU stage. The same would surely be true for the current crop of British and French leaders now in office.
If taking a top EU job is really such a step down in life, our leaders can’t complain if the general public regards the EU with something less than transfixed awe.
Across the globe: Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs on