Voting in Ireland’s referendum on the Lisbon treaty got off to a pretty slow start at one polling station I went to in central Dublin this morning. By 8am, an hour after the polls opened, fewer than a dozen people had arrived to cast ballots. Nevertheless, it struck me as significant that two voters told me that they had switched to voting Yes from No in Ireland’s June 2008 referendum on the treaty. By contrast, no one said they had switched to No from Yes.
In the 2008 referendum, the Lisbon treaty was defeated by a margin of 53.4 to 46.6 per cent on a turn-out of 53.1 per cent. That was a decisive result. But because Ireland is a small place, with an electorate of just over 3m, the absolute difference between the Yes and No votes was not that great. Some 862,415 people voted against Lisbon and 752,451 in favour.
In other words, for the 2008 result to be overturned, all it would need – assuming an identical turn-out – is for about 55,000 people to switch their votes. If my experience at the Dublin polling station is anything to go by, that may be what will happen. (The final result won’t be known until late Saturday afternoon.)
Why would voters change their minds in the space of 15 months? According to a European Commission-sponsored opinion poll taken immediately after last year’s vote, the single most important reason cited by No voters for their opposition to Lisbon was “lack of knowledge of the treaty”. Now, however, people seem to feel better informed. According to Ireland’s politically neutral Referendum Commission, 63 per cent of voters say they have at least some understanding of the treaty, far higher than 44 per cent on the eve of last year’s vote.
The Commission’s post-referendum poll last year said that fears about loss of Irish identity were the second most important factor behind the No vote. This point has been addressed, at least to some extent, by the guarantees of national sovereignty that the Irish government negotiated with its 26 EU partners over the past year.
Other reasons for last year’s No vote ranged from the fear that Ireland would lose its automatic right to have a seat on the European Commission to a general lack of trust in politicians. The first point has been cleared up: under Lisbon, Ireland will definitely keep its commissioner.
The second point is more tricky. The Irish government is hugely unpopular because of the financial crisis and recession. But disliking your government is one thing, and voting on a European matter is – or ought to be – something else.
As one young man (No last year, Yes this time) put it to me on this drizzly, dark morning: “I didn’t understand the treaty at all last year. This time it’s been explained a lot better. The No campaign were less legitimate.”
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