Victories in referendums rarely come as big as this. With full results in from more than half Ireland’s constituencies, the pro-Lisbon treaty camp is ahead by 66.8 to 33.2 per cent. What’s more, the turnout is high – almost 59 per cent, compared with 53 per cent when Irish voters rejected the European Union’s Lisbon treaty in June 2008.
No wonder Irish premier Brian Cowen looks like the cat that’s been served the cream (when he and his party are annihilated in the next Irish parliamentary election, he can always say he did the noble thing on Lisbon before perishing). And no wonder Irish big business is pleased, too. They were very visible on the Yes side during this campaign and they needed a convincing result to justify the money and effort.
But I wonder what David Cameron, the UK Conservative party leader who is expected to win office as prime minister in about nine months’ time, makes of the result? Officially, the Tories loathe Lisbon and are committed to destroying it if all 27 EU countries have not ratified it by the time Cameron comes to power. Unofficially, the Conservatives – or, at least, the more level-headed among them – may be rather relieved by the Irish result.
Because when they take office, they will inherit the after-effects of a harsh recession and one of the worst disasters ever to strike the British public finances. They will face numerous other difficulties as well – not least, a war in Afghanistan that isn’t going well.
Surely the last thing the Conservatives want is a big row with their European allies over a treaty on EU institutional reform that, at heart, the British people do not give a fig about? Better to accept the Lisbon treaty, put in behind them and get on with the things that will really matter once Cameron is in Downing Street.
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