As Tony Blair’s chances of becoming the European Union’s first full-time president fade, so the chances go up that David Miliband will be the EU’s next foreign policy supremo. This is the picture emerging on the second day of the EU summit in Brussels.
The killer blow to Blair’s prospects was delivered by Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, who let it be known that she would prefer the EU’s first permanent president to come from one of the EU’s smaller states. By definition, this rules out Blair.
German officials say she has nothing against Blair personally. But in this matter Merkel’s voice is perhaps the most important among all the 27 leaders present. Germany is not putting forward a candidate either for the presidency or for the foreign policy post. It is, however, the EU’s biggest country and its paymaster. Merkel is therefore the honest broker, the swing vote, the kingmaker – however you want to put it.
Meanwhile, Blair has lost the support of José Sócrates, Portugal’s prime minister, and of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s prime minister. Both are socialists and both think Europe’s centre-left should focus not on getting the presidency but the foreign policy job.
That is why the summit chatter about Miliband is getting ever more excited. Looking around Europe, one does not see too many foreign policy stars on the centre-left side of the political firmament. And check out this editorial in Thursday’s Le Monde on Miliband. It describes him as “the young and brilliant foreign secretary” and praises his commitment to the EU, contrasting it with the views of William Hague, the Tory shadow foreign secretary, whom it accuses of “an almost pathological europhobia”.
With Le Monde on your side, how can you lose?
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