The sun is shining in Brussels and the sky has an unseasonably blue, cloudless, late-November-in-Rome quality as European Union leaders make their way here for the summit of summits - the event where they will choose the EU’s first full-time president and new foreign policy chief. I wonder if the weather will be so fine when the leaders finally drag themselves away from the negotiating table after what is shaping up to be a night of relentless hard bargaining.
By general consent, the frontrunner is Herman Van Rompuy, the amiable, haiku-writing Belgian prime minister. Even a speech he gave in 2004 that reveals him to be an implacable opponent of Turkey’s entry into the EU (Turkey has been an official candidate for the past four years) doesn’t seem to be doing Van Rompuy any harm. Well, why should it? It fits in perfectly with the views of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
It has been clear for the past week that Merkel and Sarkozy would be perfectly happy to put Van Rompuy in the presidency. Yes, he is almost unknown outside Belgium. Yes, it is hard to see President Barack Obama or President Hu Jintao taking him entirely seriously. Yes, he is no Tony Blair. But he will be good at building consensus among EU governments. He will be good at organising the work of the European Council. And that is what France, Germany and many small EU states want.
The question is whether the UK, seething with fury at Sarkozy’s betrayal of Blair and impatient with Germany and the rest for insisting on a president from a small country, will block Van Rompuy. If the UK does, a third candidate will get the job – and, frankly, it is anyone’s guess who it will be (except that I cannot imagine it will be Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, because the UK and France share a distaste for him).
What many countries, including Germany, hope is that Prime Minister Gordon Brown will chill, accept Blair has no chance, and then accept the job of foreign policy high representative for the UK. It is there for the British if they want it – that seems to be the message from most of Europe. The obvious choice is Foreign Secretary David Miliband, but lately he’s been ruling himself out.
I’ll tell you what, though. Miliband and other potential British candidates are all strong advocates of Turkish entry into the EU. So we could end up with a EU president (Van Rompuy) and a EU foreign policy chief (a Brit) who disagree on a fundamental aspect of the EU’s foreign relations.
What an excellent recipe for a united Europe.
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