A potentially decisive moment is approaching in the Cyprus settlement talks that started in September 2008.  Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary-general, is to visit the divided island on Sunday and stay there until Tuesday.  He does not, of course, have the authority to impose a settlement or even seriously to bang heads together.  But what he can do is impress on the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders that the world is watching them and that a great deal hangs on the outcome of their negotiations.

A sense of urgency hangs over the talks because presidential elections will be held in Turkish Cypriot-controlled northern Cyprus on April 18.  Mehmet Ali Talat, the leftist president who helped revive the effort at reaching a comprehensive settlement more than 16 months ago, looks vulnerable to the challenge of Dervis Eroglu, the nationalist prime minister.

Eroglu says that, if he wins, he will not break off the talks with Demetris Christofias, the Greek Cypriot leader.  But the prospects for a deal would surely diminish, because Eroglu advocates a “two-state solution” to the Cyprus problem – i.e., one based on recognition of the north’s separate statehood.  This is not only unpalatable to the Greek Cypriots but runs contrary to the whole thrust of the UN-sponsored negotiations.  

The temptation to be cynical about the Cyprus talks is strong, but should be resisted.  I have met both Talat and Christofias, and I do not doubt their sincerity when they say they want a deal.  However, both men are operating under severe political pressures in their respective communities, and the time constraints are starting to tell.

True, it can sometimes feel as if time has stood still since Turkish forces invaded and partitioned the island in 1974.  The Greek Cypriots, who control the internationally recognised government of Cyprus, appear to feel little incentive to negotiate a settlement.  After all, they have spent almost six years as full members of the European Union, and have even been allowed into the eurozone, without having to pay any political price at all.

As for Turkey, it is surely an anachronism for a country that has modernised itself and opened itself up to the world so much over the past 30 years to continue to station at least 21,000 troops on Cyprus (the Greek Cypriots say the real figure is 43,000).

But as an excellent commentary by Didem Akyel of the International Crisis Group points out, “if this round of talks fails, that will be the surest route to partition, resulting in great losses for Cypriots and all others affected by the dispute”.  It would certainly strike a blow at Turkey’s already waning hopes of EU membership and at the possibility of closer EU-Nato co-operation.

Ah, but perhaps there are some EU countries that would secretly welcome both prospects?